Point Blank – October 20
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #6
The week that was in the NFL, and an inside look at some of the key results that you can weave into your handicapping thought processes for the games ahead.
Item: The Jets Double-Doubled the Redskins
You probably read through the Jets/Redskins box score too quickly. If a team wins 34-20, and the first downs are 22-14 and total offense 474-225, that would stop many from taking a second glance; it looks pretty much as it should. Maybe a curiosity look to see how many interceptions Kirk Cousins threw (two), or if Chris Ivory (146 rushing yards, 50 more receiving) was continuing to emerge. But you would have missed something important – this was a rare “Double Double”.
The Jets more than doubled the Redskins both in yards-per-rush, 5.4 to 2.0, and yard-per-pass, 9.7 to 4.2. That is exceedingly rare. It is a dominance of a football game that goes far beyond what a 34-20 on the scoreboard can show. There were some aspects that could have been expected – in last week’s threads the notion was brought up that the Redskins did not have a WR that could threaten Darrelle Revis or Antonio Cromartie, and none of the 43 Cousins passes were completed for more than 20 yards. But could there have been any anticipation that the game would be as one-sided as it was?
It naturally says something about both teams – the Jets off of a bye brought terrific energy and focus, and Ivory is on the verge of becoming a star. But then think about this – for all of that aggressiveness on defense, they only committed one penalty, and that for just five yards. There was some awfully good football played by that bunch, and they earned one of these -
But there were also the Redskins…
Item: Grading Jay Gruden (it is way too early for “Code Red”)
There have been a lot of questions about Gruden’s readiness to be an NFL head coach, and most of the answers are not favorable. There can be all sorts of takes on tactics and personnel, but my big concern is simply leadership, and he dropped an ugly hint on that front, saying after the game that – “It’s a code red for us.”
OK, it really was a disastrous performance – a coach watching his team get Double-Doubled knows how badly overmatched they were. But should players be told that it is “Code Red” when they are just six games into a season, only one game out of first place, and if they watched any of Giants/Eagles ineptness on Monday would know that they are just one game behind two teams that are absolutely within reach? A team at this level badly needs leadership from the top to be successful, and the best get it from both the HC on the sidelines, and the QB on the field. For Washington it is neither.
As for those tactical issues, one of the emerging factors is the inability of Gruden and his staff to make halftime adjustments, and I will let Jerry Brewer from the Washington Post walk you through that, because he wrote it better than I could -
“Which brings us to another hot-button issue. Washington has been a third-quarter debacle, having been outscored 46-3 in that period, and the blame for that must fall on the coach. This is a one-punch team, that it is so limited it doesn’t have too many adjustments it can make. Gruden’s team has failed in just about every way possible in the third quarter. It’s not just the offense, defense, special teams, penalties or lack of depth. Every third quarter presents a new problem, which speaks to a team’s inability to receive a halftime message and implement it. In the third quarter, the players often look like a team that went into halftime too satisfied with its performance.”
OK, so maybe the issues really do call for a Code Red, but you sure as hell don’t say it publicly.
Item: The Rex Ryan Bills aren’t who I thought they were (is this a bad fit?)
It seemed like a more than reasonable marriage – Rex Ryan bringing his schemes to a talented Buffalo defensive front that could get after opposing passers and cause all sorts of mayhem. And you would accept some of the natural negatives of aggressive play, like a lot of yellow flags, in order to get the benefits. But the Bills did not bother Tom Brady at all in getting blown out at home in Game #2; struggled to get Eli Manning out of rhythm in a home loss in game #4; and then on Sunday the defense was essentially “blanked” by Andy Dalton and the Bengals – no turnovers and no sacks in that 34-21 Cincy win. Of course, the penalties were still there – the Bills getting whistled for 93 yards of infractions.
There is no denying the talent the Bills have up front. When talent fails, talent gets angry and frustrated, and that made the post-game comments among the most interesting of any this season. Is it a scheme that they have not been comfortable with, and may not be buying into? Let’s start with Mario Williams
“When we’ve got four guys rushing, we can do some different things. Some of the calls that we had, we just didn’t have four guys out there rushing in certain situations, things like that. You know, you’re just playing the call. We don’t make the calls as players. We’ve got to execute whatever’s called. If it’s three guys going, it’s three guys going and we’ve got to figure out an opportunity, a different way to get there faster. I’m used to knowing what my guy’s doing beside me in a passing situation and things like that. And being able to cause havoc from different angles as far as getting after the quarterback or setting up the tackle or the tight end or whoever’s blocking you.”
And more from Jerry Hughes - “What people don’t understand is you’re not running the same defense that we ran last year. This isn’t the 4-3, four down linemen, go after the quarterback. This is a 3-4 defense. … I just think it’s going to take guys some time to get used to making those calls and get that mindset to 4-3. Last year’s gone.”
The Bills led the NFL in sack percentage last year at 8.8. Now they are tied for #29 with Indianapolis at 3.4. That might be the single biggest shock of any major statistic through this stage of the NFL season. I did not read the mix of Ryan and these defensive players correctly, perhaps Buffalo management did not either.
But there is another emerging defensive scheme change in the same division that just brought different results, and requires a closer look -
Item: Miami plays a good defensive game, and don’t say "Suh what"?
In their first game under new HC Dan Campbell, and new DC Lou Anarumo, the Miami defense played the kind of football it looked like this group was capable of. They scored as many TDs as they allowed, coming up with four turnovers and six sacks in dominating the Titans. And yet you might go through the box score and decide that Ndamukong Suh was still an over-priced non-factor; he was credited with no tackles or sacks. That would be wrong.
First note the overall impact of Campbell, who started off the Miami bye week by having the team go through Oklahoma drills, and geared up a more intense focus. While the coaches and players talked the usual talk going into the game, they absolutely delivered on it in bolting to a 17-3 halftime lead, and let the following from Cameron Wake, who had a monster game with four sacks, help set the stage for what is next -
"The reality is he's (Campbell) a tremendous motivator, has a tremendous amount of wisdom in what he does. And to be a player and a coach, he's been through two-a-day practices, he knows what it's like after a game - whether it's a win or a loss - he knows what it has to look like for it to be successful. To have that perspective, you can't get that from a book, you can't get that no matter if you coach 70 years. There are some things you'll never be able to grasp unless you play."
Yes, there were swipes at Joe Philbin inside of that commentary, but that shows the disconnect that had been going on previously with this team.
But now back to Suh. Another blasé effort from him, right? Was he the one guy that did not buy in? Actually no – you just have to do some digging. Suh had a solid game, disrupting the Tennessee blocking schemes and making it easier for Wake and others on the outside to get into the backfield. He batted down two passes, a non-box score stat that matters, and while he did not get a sack, he altered several pass attempts. Need a little more? Pro Football Focus graded him as the third best Dolphin on the field in that win.
Item: Carolina may have won more than a game
OK, so these Seahawks are no longer those Seahawks (I’ll get to that directly). But for a Carolina team that has opened unbeaten as much a result of weak competition as strong play, not only does finally beating Seattle mean a lot to the Panther psyche, how they won it may make it matter even more. In a sport in which emotion and confidence is often the difference between winning and losing, we file it away going forward.
Cam Newton and the offense got the ball at their own 20-yard line down 23-14 with 8:08 remaining. That has not been a favorable setting against that defense in front of that crowd, and when you are carrying a negative legacy against that particular opponent, plus a dearth of WRs that can get open vs. that secondary, it is a bleak picture. But the offense drove 80 yards for a TD, not once, but twice, over the game’s final stages, and in coming away 27-23 they may have exorcised demons, while adding another win in the standings.
The biggest plays on those two drives were completions from Newton to Gregg Olsen, who caught seven passes for 131 yards in the game. But do not overlook what the QB and those WRs were also able to do – after only completing two passes to the wide-outs all game heading up to that penultimate drive, there were five connections on those two series, spread across four different players. It is something that could be described as “clutch”, and perhaps it should be, because that is how they will likely come away believing in it themselves.
The Panthers still face limitations, because those WRs simply aren’t very good. But this is a team that has also now won nine straight regular-season games, and their belief in themselves, especially off of Sunday’s win, becomes a genuine handicapping factor. Meanwhile…
Item: Seattle has lost games as favorites this season with +3 and +2 turnover ratios
And of course there is that. The issues of the Seahawk OL have been detailed several times here, starting all the way back in August. They aren’t getting any better. Marshawn Lynch was held to 3.2 yards per rush vs. Carolina; Russell Wilson was sacked four times; and the Seahawks only managed 14 first downs.
But there may be an equal cause for concern on the other side of the ball. What is still regarded as a top-flight defense has now had three settings this season in which all they had to do was stop the opposition from going 80 yards or more to score a TD on the final drive, and they would seal a win, and one more where they had to prevent a FG. The Rams (12 plays, 84 yards) and Panthers (eight plays, 80 yards) got those touchdowns, and we all know what happened in that final sequence vs. the Lions (10 plays, 90 yards). Meanwhile Cincinnati went 69 yards in seven plays to get into the necessary FG range. Two of those games were in Seattle, where such things are simply not supposed to happen. That defense now sits at #10 overall on the Football Outsiders best ratings, which is good, but in the marketplace it is a defense still being priced as if they are very good.
Item: Denver does not have a 1st Quarter TD this season (that is what happens when your QB has a 72.5 Passer Rating)
In fact, the Bronco offense has only scored nine TDs all season. The only other team that has played six games, and scored nine offensive TDs? The Seahawks. Be careful with reputations, folks. Yet the remarkable thing when perusing the Sports Mediaverse is that there are those that are just starting to realize that Peyton Manning has issues. After Sunday’s poor showing Manning is now down to a 72.5 Passer Rating, in a league where no other full-time starter is lower than 75.0.
There is a big sample behind Manning’s Passer Rating, and a lot of validity; it has been written about enough here to not require redundancy. But at the other end of the spectrum, make sure you do not get fooled by someone that has the benefit of small sample size on his side…
Item: Don’t you dare believe the Landry Jones statistics
If you calculate the Jones showing according to the model for the NFL Passer Ratings, he checked in with an astounding 149.3, and that is how history will record it. You shouldn’t. Jones is not very good, a prime reason why Michael Vick, who is not very good, was brought in shortly before the season started.
The eye test has never been fond of Jones, the lower parts of the chart just too blurry to even try to decipher. Sunday was more of the some – some awkward throws were a part of his misses. Yes, there were those TD passes, but, they help to tell the tale. Both were to Martavius Bryant, the first for eight yards capping a short 32-yard drive after a Cardinal turnover. It was the only completion of the drive. The second gets credited as 88 yards for Jones, but 79 of them came after the catch, a terrific broken-field run by Bryant to weave his way to the end zone. It was a two-play drive.
We will not know for a few days if Ben Roethlisberger is going to be able to return this week, but if not, do not use those Sunday numbers from Jones as your base for evaluation; that just is not who he is.
Item: Understanding San Diego/Green Bay (89 plays vs. 49)
Long-time readers will have noticed by now that Per-Play and Percentages dominate the statistical talk on these pages, instead of raw totals. That is also the mindset you should have, but it is still not a common one yet. As such you will likely hear across the Sports Mediaverse that the “Chargers dominated the Packers, leading 32-17 in first downs and 548-370 in total offense”, and while those numbers are absolutely true, the interpretation would not be. As noted last week after the 6-0 turnover differential in Cardinals/Lions, extremes are difficult to sort through in the post-mortems, and what happened at Lambeau Field was another one of them, with San Diego having 89 offensive plays, to just 49 for the Packers. So instead of looking at those base numbers that show how much the Chargers compiled, someone else could just as easily say “How in the hell do you have 40 more plays than the other team and still lose?”
A game like that does not bring easy answers. The Green Bay defense was not able to get off the field, allowing nine third-down conversions, as Mike McCoy and Philip Rivers cobbled together a game plan to work around that patched-up OL. Give them a good grade for 6.2 yards per play, and an even better one for only one turnover in those 89 snaps. But the defense was another matter entirely – they did not “hold” the Packers to 27 points and 370 yards, they benefitted from being able to sit and watch much of the afternoon. The Packers averaged 7.6 yards per play, a rare game in which a team tops 7.0 both running and passing. They did not have a turnover.
When I go through the box scores, over time my eye test goes to yards per play first, and then builds out from there. That is not a bad path to follow, with the notions of First Downs and Total Offense not carrying the weight of definition as well as back when the sport was played at a slower tempo. So take your time when sorting through, and when possible, spread those box scores out and treat yourself to a nice lunch…
Vegas: Monday’s with the Review-Journal NFL Box Score page
I like Yonaka a lot. They are turning out some of the most creative Japanese-inspired food in all of Las Vegas, and the fact that the restaurant has been a success is also a good sign for those of us that live here – there is enough of a market that can appreciate something out of the ordinary. Yes, you will find traditional sushi and sashimi, but the specials board is truly unique, in particular the use of a lot of citrus, which is a dynamic way to highlight the salty essence of sea proteins.
Yonaka finally opened for lunch a few days ago, so naturally they went to the top of the list when it was time to break down just how badly the Jets sledgehammered the Redskins. What is intriguing is that the lunch menu is actually a different concept from their dinner offerings, more comfort than creativity, and as they explain it in their own words - Our lunch concept is family inspired dishes. The best meal of the day is a family meal. Comfort food, American, French brunch style but still using some of the Japanese ingredients, such as miso, soy, yuzu, etc. We incorporate them into our dishes.
I think the lunch menu is well thought out, and interesting as hell, enough to want to try just about everything on it in the months ahead. On Monday it was “Porchetta”, their version based on roasted pork belly, along with chipotle spiced potatoes. The Japanese element was some citrus that helped to set off of the fat of the pork, showing the balance this kitchen is so good at. It will be a treat having this place as a part of the lunch rotation.
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