Point Blank – October 14
Elimination Day in the A.L. (and what to do with those tickets you have been sitting on)…Will Grier isn’t Steve Spurrier…
The American League will reduce the field of contenders from four to two today, a pair of Game Five matchups that bring more than a little intrigue, with a multitude of key handicapper factors in play. What are already at stake for many readers are series tickets to the Blue Jays and Astros, which means that there is a vested interest as the handicapping process begins, and that leads to a key side room of this endeavor - maneuvering when you have a bit of the worst of it.
Let’s get to work, with all-around good guy Eric Strasser (PalmTree Baseball), author of “Betting Baseball for Profit”, becoming a part of the playoff pitching rotation here. As has been the case throughout, Eric’s comments will appear in italics…
Rangers/Blue Jays
The suggestion before this series started was to place a unit on Toronto, at around -240, to win a bit less than a half unit in return. That ticket is alive but has a significantly diminshed value quotient, with Marcus Stroman as low as -170 now in the matchup vs. Cole Hamel. The Blue Jays are indeed a better tam than the Rangers, but this series has been a microcosm of their season – a +4 run differential has only brought a 2-2 split, much like their +221 differential during the regular season only produce a 93-69. They do a lot of things right, but do not maximize them through the most efficient baseball, which includes the way that today’s game is set up, the biggest game of the season taking place with David Price likely unavailable.
The key word there is “likely”, because one cannot be certain of how John Gibbons will play it. He had talked about a plan that would have had Price available in relief both Monday and today, instead of saving him to be the Game #5 starter, but is that out the window after he threw 50 pitches in Game #4? As for his faith in Stroman, Gibbons has been effusive - “It’s got the makings of a really, really good story here if it plays out the way we want it to. I don’t think it really surprises anybody that knows him, that’s been around him. He’s got a great arm, he’s got great stuff - whatever you want to call it. But there’s something different about him, too. He’s smart, he’s intelligent. He’s one of those guys that everybody gravitates to because he makes you feel good and he makes everybody play better. And I expect if anybody can rise to the occasion, it would be him.” But part of that is what a manager has to say to pump up a young guy that has only worked 34 innings in his return from injury, after two short rehab outings in the Minors. This will only be Stroman’s 26th Major League start.
Now to part of the issue – the quick glance says that there should be faith in Stroman, his 4-0/1.67 over those regular-season outings leading to a good showing against the Rangers in Game #2, but deeper study brings caution. Stroman was buoyed by a .237 BABIP and a 90.9 LOB% in putting those numbers together, and counting last week’s game against Texas his K/9 count is at 6.1 this season; when he went 11-6/3.65 last year it was 7.7. Does Stroman have the poise for this setting? He may indeed, but there should be few doubts about the ability of his counterpart to handle the pressure – Cole Hamels is now at 7-4/3.05 over 88 2/3 post-season innings, and he did not walk a batter, while striking out six, from this mound in Game #2. Hamels may get beat, facing an offense that has raked left-handers better than any in recent memory, and now faces a lefty starting for the fourth time in five games, but it will be because those bats got to him, not the pressure.
Neither Stroman nor Hamels got a decision in Game #2, one that was decided by something that would have been almost unthinkable given the quality of the Texas bullpen, and the intensity of the crowd at the Rogers Centre – the Ranger relievers hurled seven shutout innings, with more than twice as many Strikeouts (9) as Hits + Walks allowed (4). Stroman may be good today. Hamels may be good today. I would not count on the Texas bullpen repeating that.
So what is the approach? I don’t have much more than to just ride out the series ticket. I would rate Hamels an edge over Stroman, but Toronto still wins just about every player vs. player matchup across the lineups. If there was not a series ticket in play the Rangers would not bring quite enough value at this price point to step in, so it becomes an afternoon of riding it out.
But a similar scenario calls for a different strategy tonight...
Astros/Royals
The original call here was a series play on the Astros, which you should have been able to find in the +120 to +125 range. The ticket carried an extreme amount of value when they went to the eighth inning at Minute Made Park on Monday, then took a dramatic drop. This time there is some maneuvering to be done, and Eric takes the mound -
It’s always great when a plan comes together, but it’s not any fun at all when one falls apart, especially late in the game. The Astros had the series won against the Royals and then the two things that you need to win a playoff series both failed with six outs to go. Bullpens and Defense.
It apparently never occurred to AJ Hinch that when you’re on the verge of closing out last year’s AL champions that you don’t fool around with middle relief. First it was Will Harris, which was somewhat understandable and forgivable. But when Harris got into trouble he should have gotten immediately to Luke Gregerson. Gregerson is probably one of the weaker closers in the American League (and certainly among playoff teams) but he’s the best they’ve got. Using Tony Sipp in that spot was Matt Williams-like, and we know how that worked out for him. If somebody can answer this question for me I’d really appreciate it, because I have been thinking about it for two days and I have no idea what the right answer is. Why is it okay to use your closer once the game was tied at 6 – 6 with one out in the 8th inning, but a bad idea (obviously he thought it was a bad idea since he didn’t do it) to use him with a 6 – 3 lead and the bases loaded to try and save the game?
No one has been harder on Ned Yost that I have. I even wrote a blog last season titled “Ned Yost is a dope”. But notice that as soon as he got the lead in game 4 there was no fooling around. It was Wade Davis for the six-out save, which he accomplished with little trouble. It will be the same thing Wednesday if the situation calls for it. My feeling is that the Astros gave the game away, but it would be foolish to not give a ton of credit to the Kansas City hitters. Patient at-bat after patient a- bat and no one trying to do too much (for the definition of trying to do too much, take another look at the Mets on Tuesday night). I believe the Royals were as high as +600 in live betting when the top of the eighth inning started, but no panic, and if that game didn’t remind you of last year’s wild-card game against the A’s…
All of that leads me to game 5. I’m writing this from the perspective of a guy holding a one-unit series play on the Astros at +120. Dave has thoroughly documented Johnny Cueto’s struggles on the new home mound in Kansas City and basically everywhere away from Great American Ball Park. We saw nothing from Colin McHugh in game one to make me question his ability to shut the Royals down tomorrow. But there are couple of things at play here. The Astros have to be mentally crushed losing a four-run lead with only six outs to get at home to win the series. Second, can the bullpen bounce back? I have my doubts. If this were not the deciding game I’d be very comfortable playing the Astros and McHugh for the first 5 innings. But it’s not and experience matters.
I’m very conflicted about Wednesday’s game. So I did the safe thing. I reduced my exposure by playing the Royals -131 for one half of my bet. Sometimes the best option is to punt and wait for the next series.
Let’s talk Florida QBs
Tomorrow’s lead topic will be on the resignation of Steve Spurrier at South Carolina, and what it will mean to the Gamecock season, but baseball deserved top billing today. What does require some thought, however, is Pinnacle re-opening #162 LSU/Florida, the Tigers at 9.5 this morning with Treon Harris started at QB for the Gators, as opposed to the -5 opener on Sunday night, when it was to have been Will Grier. This adjustment makes it appear that Grier was Spurrier, back in his playing days. That does not compute.
First, the proper starting point is not the -5, which the markets were already taking to -6.5 even if Grier played, with the possibility of -7 later in the week. But I only have a gap of a half point between the two QBs, and that may be high. Harris started the final six games of the 2014 season, which included the extra reps at #1 that come with appearing in a bowl game, and he was in a virtual dead heat with Grier in fall practice. Harris is not as accurate as Grier but brings more mobility (he already has a game of 100+ rushing yards under his belt, picking up 111 in an overtime loss to South Carolina), and you can use this from LB Jarrad Davis to set the stage – “Sitting out practice in fall camp seeing them both compete, it was awesome. We knew we had something either way.”
I was not likely to get involved with either side at the lower price point, but as -9.5 becomes the send-out this morning, it will be difficult to not put some +10 in pocket. The transition to Harris should be a seamless one, with few changes in the playbook, and no real gap in ability between him and Grier.
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