Point Blank – October 13
What a Bettor Better Know – NFL #5
The NFL week that was, one filled with some dramatic shifts in QB performances, which means time to get to work in terms of breaking them down.
Item: A turning point for Sam Bradford (and perhaps the Eagles season)
Sam Bradford’s transition to the starting QB role in Philadelphia got off to a bad start, and in a fast-tempo offense, the team goes as the QB goes. As such, the Eagle season may have been on the brink early on Sunday vs. New Orleans, when Bradford’s confidence was nearing a critical point.
On the first drive Chip Kelly gambled on a fourth-and-seven at the Saints 39-yard line, and Bradford threw an incomplete pass. On the second possession Bradford committed one of the absolute sins of a QB, throwing an interception in the end zone on a first down play. On the third trip the Philly offense drove deep into New Orleans territory again, and once more Bradford threw an interception in the end zone, at least on a second-down play this time.
That could have easily been the end, Kelly going to Mark Sanchez and giving up on his experiment. But Bradford was given the nod for the next series, and after one of the first good signs from DeMarco Murray all season, a 24-yard burst to the Saints 41-yard line, Bradford hit Josh Huff for a touchdown on the next play. It tied the game at 7-7, and ignited a 39-3 Philadelphia run. Boom. The Eagles finally got their tempo going, snapping the ball 79 times, good for 34 first downs and 519 yards. A little momentum (and obviously some New Orleans defense), and they began to play downhill.
It was not all good – even in that run the offense had to settle for field goals on four drives; but Bradford was playing with confidence, and the team around him picked up on that spark. And while Kelly is often chided (properly) for his stubbornness, it was his willingness to change things up that played a part. The Eagles lined up in a lot more two-TE formations, had Bradford take more snaps from under center, and also rolled him out a lot more in the pocket. It was the two TE looks that had the biggest impact, getting real leverage overland, to the point of 186 rushing yards at 5.5 per attempt, and as Bradford duly noted – “When we can put ourselves in second-and-short and second-and-medium, the playbook really opens up.”
Of course, there is that small * next to the performance, because it came against a Rob Ryan defense, but there really was a sensible tweaking of the plan, and the spark of one long TD pass really did make a turn. Which leads to a major NFC East showdown on Monday night. First, let’s set some perspective for the Philadelphia offense. The Eagles struggled mightily partially because their pieces were not fitting well together, but also because opposing defenses were gaining experience against them – the Redskins and Cowboys were seeing Kelly’s schemes for the fifth time, and while it was the first for most of the Jet players, Todd Bowles had coaches against them in each of the past two seasons with Arizona. So now one of the issues for this week is how the Giants fit in that regard – it will indeed be their fifth look, but only the first under Steve Spagnuolo. That will require some thought. What doesn’t, is how comfortable Eli Manning is becoming in his second season of working with OC Bob McAdoo.
Sub-Item: Eli’s Coming
Eli is indeed on his way, perhaps finally getting to that true elite level, having already possessed the first three letters, so to take you through the rest of today’s read, a musical interlude, penned by the brilliant and under-appreciated Laura Nyro –
The fit between the QB and OC was not an easy one at the onset – Manning had built a career around play action and whipping the ball down the field, often lazily, but getting away with it because of his physical skills, and also those two Super Bowl rings. The rings, of course, just happened to come in the only seasons in which the Giants won playoff games with Manning at the helm. McAdoo’s offense favors precision, shorter routes, and developing a rhythm. There was some early awkwardness in 2014, but when the season was over Manning had his best completion percentage, best TD to interception ratio, and third-best passer rating of his career. Now he is on a pace to be at his career #1 in all of those categories, and his comfort level was so very evident against the 49ers.
Yes, like Bradford, Manning was not exactly up against a major challenge on Sunday, but it was in seeing how he calmly he executed the offense, particularly on that game-winning TD drive, that resonates even louder than the numbers. Seven different Giants caught at least four passes, none of them named Victor Cruz, and when Cruz returns that mix becomes even more interesting.
Item: But if you think (like many apparently do) than Andy Dalton had his turning point…
Go ahead and like Dalton all you want after Sunday’s rally, with the Bengals scoring on each of the final three drives in the fourth quarter when they had to, against one of the NFL’s best defenses. Continue to love that “Pandora’s Box” of weapons they have on offense, all of those evils that can be unleashed on opposing defenses. As Pro Bowl-ish as Tyler Eifert and A. J. Green have been, when the Jones/Sanu tandem catches 10 passes for 120, you see how dangerous this bunch is.
Dalton finished with a 30-44-331 line, with two TD passes and a rushing score. Terrific stuff. But instead of this being the “over the hump” game, consider this – with everything on the line, the Bengals down 24-21 and snapping the ball with 0:24 remaining and no time-outs left, Dalton made an utterly terrible decision. Again.
The worst thing he could have done was to have forced an interception. If there is no one open, you throw the ball away, and bring in Mike Nugent for the field goal. At least Dalton did not do the worst thing. But he did the second worst, breaking the pocket and running downfield with the ball. Because he did not make the chains it became fourth down, the ball could not be spiked, and it was a race against time for the Bengals to line up for Nugent to tie the game. They did make it, the official play-by-play calling it at 0:03, but that was cutting it awfully close. In their scramble to line up, had the Cincinnati special teams committed a false start penalty, the game would have ended.
Dalton had a very good game. But concerns about his decision-making at key moments did not go away; they actually increased.
Item: And then there was Josh McCown
Yes, there are gasps across the marketplace after McCown’s stunning showing at Baltimore on Sunday, but note that it was actually part of a three-game sequence in which he has been as productive as any QB in the NFL -
CMP ATT YDS AVG TD INT
96 141 1,154 8.2 4 1
And on every one of those snaps he was surrounded by one of the worst groups of skill players in the NFL; there are no RB’s WR’s or TE’s on this roster likely to ever find their way into a Pro Bowl (ok, perhaps Gary Barnidge is having a late-career awakening). But just how does that fit into a world that still rotates on an axis around the sun, and has a gravitational pull?
It is indeed possible to catch an opponent napping in the NFL; when defenses see films of the Browns it is easy for them to be complacent in practice and preparation. That changes now; when you put up 33 points and over 500 yards, the other side takes notice. That concept matters, because this week the other side just happens to be the Denver Broncos, the best defense in the NFL. Not only have the Broncos been stifling against both the run and the pass, while also getting to opposing QBs at the #3 sack percentage in the league, but that defense has already scored three TDs, all game-turners.
McCown and his teammates are not going to catch the Broncos taking them lightly. Does that sharp performance put a bulls-eye on their backs? That is how professional sports works in many settings; the job for the shrewd handicapper is to determine if this is one of them. The other task, of course, is to decide if perhaps McCown and that skill corps had been under-rated all along, but that one is a little easier to answer.
Item: This is how bad Nick Foles was
Let’s do some algebra. What does the value for “X” have to be for this formula to fit?
"A" (The St. Louis defense forced more turnovers, three, than the Rams allowed TDs to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense, two.)
plus
"B" (Todd Gurley ran for 159 yards)
minus
"X"
=
"D" (The Rams lost by 14 points)
In this instance, variable “X” would have to be bad, really bad. To play defense and run the ball that well, yet still lose by two touchdowns, requires an awful showing somewhere else, and that is what Foles turned in. A couple of weeks ago Colin Kaepernick was isolated for having had perhaps the worst single-game performance in NFL history, and while that will likely not be challenged any time soon, Foles stumbled in a Sunday showing that registers as a net minus on my passing charts.
Here is the best way to comprehend it – had Foles done nothing but spike the ball on all 34 St. Louis pass plays (31 passes and three sacks), it would have graded out at 47 yards better than what was produced. Of those 34 pass plays, Foles threw four interceptions, and was sacked three times. Three of the interceptions were disasters – a Pick-6 to Quentin Rollins, one in the end zone, and one at the Green Bay four-yard line. Those plays resulted in huge scoreboard swings. It was an utterly terrible performance, but even with that…
Item: But you should be shopping St. Louis futures anyway
The Ram defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl. Todd Gurley may already be as good as any RB in the NFL (seriously, who would you trade him for one-on-one if given the opportunity). And after a bye week that can help to fit some of the offensive pieces of the puzzle together, making what can be made of Foles, there is a closing stretch of schedule that may be the NFL’s easiest. The Rams will return with home games against the Browns, 49ers and Bears over the next four outings, with a trip to Minnesota mixed in. There will also be later home games vs. the Lions and Buccaneers, and trips to Baltimore and San Francisco that can be managed. It only takes some average QB play, and they may be able to fit a package together for Foles to be average.
Take note of one key from that defensive showing – while the NFL accounting can only show that they sacked Rodgers twice, he is charted as having carried the ball eight times for 39 yards. The majority of those runs were unplanned; plays in which he had to break the pocket because of pressure, and Rodgers was savvy enough to find his way to positive yardage. When Packer RBs carried the ball it was only 19-47, just 2.5 per attempt.
Item: Is anyone coaching better than John Fox?
The Bears stink. The roster is among the NFL’s worst, and when the season began I thought 5-11 might have been their ceiling. It still might be. But what a difference coaching makes. Chicago is 2-3, with a legit chance to win at Detroit this week, which would take the Bears into their bye at .500, and allow them to actually pretend they can make the playoffs. The key has been Fox.
While the roster does not bring much, every week there has been a plan, and except for that early cycle against Arizona, when the Cardinals scored on a kickoff return and an interception return in the first half, the Bears have stuck to their plan. They only trailed the Packers by one point in the fourth quarter of the opener. Even with Jimmy Clausen at QB they cobbled together a blueprint that had them only down by six at halftime at Seattle. Then the past two weeks they hung around long enough to be within one score of beating the Raiders and Chiefs, and that is what they did, Jay Cutler managing a 12-play drive to set up Robbie Gould for the game-winning field goal vs. Oakland, and then an eight-play drive to reach the end zone at Kansas City.
Make this a part of your power ratings process – while the talent is not good, and there is not much of an upside, there is a sense of purpose coming from the Halas Hall each week. That is something that was badly missing during the Marc Trestman years.
Item: How do your interpret a 6-0 turnover game?
Answer – it is hard as hell. Over the past 15 seasons there have been 26 games in which one team had a +6 or better margin over the other, naturally going 26-0, with 14 of the wins coming by 20 points or more. And that was the case with Arizona/Detroit on Sunday, the Cardinals getting a 42-17 rout out of those advantages.
When the turnover count is +3 or +4 it is significant, and it warrants deeper study as to whether they were forced by the defense, mistakes by the offense, or the bounces of the ball the sport allows. When you get beyond that it is much more difficult, because the turnovers themselves become a factor in creating even more – as a game gets one-sided, the losing team can be even more prone to mistakes, whether it be from the playbook gambles in trying to catch up, or simply losing interest and concentration. What it leaves us with is a box score that is a bit of a muddled mess to decipher, especially the Arizona rushing attack, with that 25-187 including plays like the 63-yard burst by Andre Ellington in the fourth quarter, when a tired Lion defense on a short week was not playing with much heart.
While the statistics are not easy to sort through, the loss of heart from the Lions rears its head in a couple of key areas, and that requires close scrutiny this week, on both sides of the ball. While much of the focus will be on the play of QB Matthew Stafford, and whether the coaches and other offensive players retain their confidence in him (or perhaps more to the point, if he maintains confidence in himself), there was a big blow on defense that may have played a bigger role in that 28-0 Arizona second quarter explosion than will be perceived – the loss of DeAndre Levy.
Levy is the highest-paid OLB in the sport (four years at $33 million), and made his season debut on Sunday, but it did not last long – he played only 17 snaps before re-injuring his hip. There has already been talk that the Lions may shut down their best defensive player for the remainder of the season, which will certainly not help a team badly in need of positive energy.
Item: Tom Brady had never been sacked 5 times in a half in his career (here comes the Cowboy pass rush)
Dallas does not play this week, but file this away as power ratings adjustments get made – for as odious as Greg Hardy’s personal conduct has been, his presence made a significant difference to that defense on Sunday. The performance of that unit is not easy to sort through because their own offense provided them with such little help, but what you want to make special note of are those five sacks of Brady in the first half. Two of them came from Hardy, who now has 18 over what would represent his last full season (16 games) of play. Jason Garrett has time now to try to solve the offensive mess, which should mean turning to Matt Cassell, but despite being blown out on the scoreboard, the defense did take a step forward.
Vegas: Monday’s with the Review-Journal
Monday brought a slight distraction to the usual laying out of the Las Vegas Review-Journal NFL box score page, with a need to be somewhere that would have Royals/Astros Game #4 available for viewing in the background. That made District One the call, one of the few places in Chinatown with televisions at all, yet having them in abundance, which makes it the best viewing option in that area.
The name District One comes from the night-life center of Saigon, and indeed there is an energetic atmosphere at night, along with some of the best off-Strip seafood specials to be found across the valley (when either the Razor Clams, Surf Clams or Sea Snails are on the specials board you want to be there). There is a full bar with not only a well thought-out beer selection, but an assortment of Japanese single malt whisky, which will be an emerging trend over the next generation (simple hint: Japanese whisky is superb; a close mirror to those coming from Scotland).
Monday brought a leisurely stroll through the box scores and early stages of Houston/Kansas City, when Lance McCullers had his curveball working and the Astro bullpen had yet to enter the picture. The opener was Beef and Lemongrass wrapped in Betel Leaves, the tang of those leaves adding a unique dimension –
Followed by Mekong River Noodle Soup, another of those regional specialties that dot our local Asian dining landscape – shrimp, pork, fish balls, bonito flakes and assorted vegetables, with rice noodles in a broth that has a subtle but distinct character. When there are three MLB games to follow, plus Steelers/Chargers, you want something healthy to set you up for the rest of the day.
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