Point Blank – October 9
The MLB Friday Edition
The whole board is in play today in a marathon of playoff baseball, and that means a lot of pitches and swings to sort through. After setting the stage earlier this week, it will be a team effort until the end of the World Series from myself and all-around good guy Eric Strasser, author of “Betting Baseball for Profit”. I will do my best in the editing process to make sure that Eric’s comments are all in italics, but on busy weekends like the one we have ahead, there are likely to be the occasional oversight. Of course, winning is all that really matters…
There will be fresh postings on Saturday and Sunday as well, which we will aim on keeping short, sweet and right to the point. For now let’s start with the two early starts in the American League, with the National League to follow later this morning (whether Yadier Molina appears in the St. Louis starting lineup is big not just from a single game standpoint, but for the series analysis).
Rangers/Blue Jays
A series play on the Blue Jays did not get off to a favorable start, the Rangers coming in relaxed and confident, and getting the unlikely production of four runs and three rbi’s from Roughned Odor and Robinson Chirinos at the bottom of the order, each of them hitting a homer. David Price was not bad, he simply was not good, and now has the ignominy of having lost six consecutive post-season starts.
Now it is Cole Hamels vs. Marcus Stroman, Hamels turning a 7-1/3.66 after being liberated from the Phillies, and Stroman being a tricky read at 4-0/1.67. The Blue Jays won his four starts by a resounding 25 runs, and his 64.0 GB% was outstanding, but note that a .237 BABIP and 90.9 LOB% were contributing factors to that ERA. FIP reads 3.54 and SIERRA 3.28, which in this case are better indicators.
On the injury front Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista are in the lineup for Toronto, but Adrian Beltre is out for Texas and that is major – Hanser Alberto will be batting 9th in the lineup, with a .222/.238/2.63 over 104 plate appearances. The 22-year old Alberto had never even appeared in a AAA game until this season.
While Hamels brings some form and post-season experience (13 starts, at an effective 7-4/3.09), it is not easy for a left-hander to deal with this lineup in this ballpark, and Beltre is a major loss both at the plate and in the batter’s box. For those that have For those that have Blue Jays series tickets it is a day to sit back and root, without taking any additional action.
Astros/Royals
The Astros were a loose and confident team on the road against last night, in what will also prove to be a major boost for Lance McCullers. That puts our series ticket in an excellent position, and it puts the Royals backs against the walls, knowing that if they lose it means having to face Dallas Keuchel in Houston in a potential close-out. That will likely lead to more market activity than should be there, and while there will be some Astro value at first pitch there is a better direction to take – the offenses have a chance to stretch out here.
Yesterday I noted one of the issues that was discussed here back when the Johnny Cueto trade took place, whether he was truly a “Home/Away” bias pitcher, or whether so much was really tied to his comfort zone at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. Today I will alter the table a bit to make it for the last two seasons, adding even more data points:
GAB Others Kaufman
W/L 16-5 7-12 3-4
ERA 1.75 3.97 4.40
K/9 9.5 7.4 7.0
That is a substantial gap, and under-reflected in the marketplace. There has been nothing special about his recent form, so the Astros can get some good swings. But the Royals can counter, Scott Kazmir having lost his way down the stretch, with no guarantee he regains his mechanics after this layoff. Kazmir’s September was an 0-2/6.52 mess over six starts, with more than twice as many hits allowed (41) as Ks (16), and eight HRs over just 29 IP. There is no particular reason that playoff pressure corrects that, and it puts #912 Over “In the Sights…” with the fair market rate of 7.5 Even money available in the current trading.
Cubs/Cardinals
The wait is over – Yadier Molina will play for the Cardinals. How well remains a question, but keep in mind that his greatest strength is the way he can call a game, and in particular the way that he might be able to work with a veteran like John Lackey to call a game against a young lineup that led the Major’s in strikeout percentage this season. And that helps to set things up for Eric -
906 Cubs/Cardinals under 6.5-108. Two guys with excellent postseason pedigrees who also have been pitching very good baseball. The Cardinals made sure that Jon Lackey would pitch at home as his home/road splits have been severe (a rock-solid 1.93 over 121 1/3 innings form this mound). He’s also thrown 22 innings against the Cubs this year without giving up a home run. As good as the Cubs have been, with that high strikeout rate I don’t believe they can build runs if they’re not hitting the ball out of the yard. This is a good matchup for Lackey.
It’s also a good matchup for Lester. The Cardinals aren’t going to run on him (only 69 steals) and it’s going to be very tough for the Cards to put crooked numbers on the board. Lester has handled most of this Cardinals lineup pretty, well and through September he allowed only 26 hits and seven walks in 42 innings.
Mets/Dodgers
For as much anticipation as there is to watch this series, which will bring a pitch-by-pitch intensity among the highest in memory because there will be so few runs scored (it is unlikely that we see a Total higher than 6.5 in any matchup), it is not going to be an easy one to bet at first pitch. And since Eric shares that sentiment, I will let him take the lead -
To me this is the only unbettable series. I’m certainly not going to lay the price with the Dodgers when the Mets have a clear starting pitching edge in games three and four that will be at home. I can’t even think about taking the price with the Mets. When betting a big dog it’s always nice to know that you can get off your bet in a deciding game if you choose, usually at a price that eliminates all risk and may even create a small middle. That’s not the case here. If you are betting limits for the series you have to win in four games, or else you are going to be a +200 dog to Clayton Kershaw in game five. There’s no sense in taking either side of the series wager.
I think the Mets have a chance to win the series although I don’t believe they will. The offense went into the tank the last few weeks and they really miss Juan Uribe against Kershaw, but the Mets have beaten both Greinke and Kershaw this season already. Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are capable of matching Greinke and Kershaw pitch for pitch for six or seven innings, then I would make the argument that the Mets starting pitching advantage in games three and four is bigger than the Dodgers starting pitching advantage in the first two, despite the fact that the Dodgers starters in those games are the very best of the best.
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