Point Blank – September 25
When “Coach-Speak” is Loud and Clear (there are more UCF alums than you might think)…The Old Ball Coach turns to a young QB...Piling up some Fantasy Points through the back door…Anticipating a slow rodeo in Dallas (cue Willie and Neil Young)…Once more into the breach, with DeSclafani...
You will note a lot of quotes being used from coaches and players as part of the daily routine here, looking for those subtle little edges that either help better to clarify the past, or to bring the future into a clearer focus. Most of them are carefully sorted through so that the aspect of “Coach-Speak” can be mitigated, because in truth many of the utterings are difficult to trust. Coaches obviously have their own agendas at play, and of course at the college level there is also their notion of protecting the young athletes they are in charge of.
Every once in a while something just jumps off the table in terms of brutal honesty. In this case it came from Central Florida OC Brent Key, in his 11th season at the school, but his first as the one calling the plays. UCF has been under the microscope by me since the opening failure vs. Florida International, an indication that for the second season in a row running the ball was going to be difficult, and also because no team in the nation has suffered more injuries on offense than the Golden Knights. Since the end of spring practice they have lost QB Justin Holman, RB Will Stanback, WR Jordan Akins, C Joey Grant, RB Dontravius Wilson, WR Taylor Oldham, H-Back Joseph Puopolo, and RG Chavis Dickey, all of them key contributors.
The results have been dismal, with a home loss to Furman last week tacked on to the earlier defeat vs. FIU, games in which UCF could only manage a combined 29 points and 556 yards. There are major questions as to whether it can get any better, with the Knights the only team in the nation that does not have a senior left on the roster anywhere at the skill positions – QB, RB, WR or TE. At one point the offensive huddle had six freshmen at the same time. So when Key sat down to talk with Shannon Green of the Orlando Sentinel earlier this week I was interested in what he had to say. Then came away a bit shocked. This was sure as hell not Coach-Speak, but a sign of someone that is truly frustrated.
First you will read - "Yeah, I mean there's only so many guys on the squad. We've got to exhaust all our options at the receiver position, running back position, line and that's everybody on offense. We've got to put the 11 guys on the field that are going to be able to help us go out and get this . . . right.” That seems to be a fair assessment of the harshness of the situation. But then it goes to an unexpected level.
"There's the next man up, but damn, there's only so many men you got on a squad. Let's be real about it, there's only so many men you got on a squad and you gotta continue to put those guys in the right positions and if it's putting more running backs on the field or putting more receivers back on the field, when you're hit with an injury situation and that compiled with some youth, and yeah there's six freshmen on the field...if it takes all 11 of those guys being on the field at the same time to get the job done, then all 11 of them will be on the field."
In a short span of time, Key repeats the “only so many guys” mantra several times, and it gives a sense of the pressure he is under. Although UCF is not in a power conference, the school has the #2 enrollment in the nation, which means a much bigger fan and alumni base than may be perceived. In Key’s first stint as OC, he may be feeling the stings from that base, especially in the infancy, and infantile, stages of the social media age. It can make for an awkward cycle ahead, the Knights opening with nine games in as many weeks before their bye, and with a first-year OC having to try to scramble something together.
But can South Carolina take advantage?
In some ways it may look like UCF gets a break this week, catching a South Carolina team also struggling with injury at QB, and the Gamecocks doing something rarely seen under Steve Spurrier, failing to compete in the second half in that 52-20 blowout at Georgia. And it really did appear to be that – not just playing poorly, but failing to compete.
There were valid concerns going in to the game – when Connor Mitch went down vs. Kentucky it forced Perry Orth into the starting QB role, and as part of this column I noted that Orth did not have the pedigree of an SEC caliber player. That became evident at Georgia, where he was a dismal 6-17 for 66 yards with an interception. That led Spurrier to do something he had not planned on this season, putting true freshman Lorenzo Nunez on the field, instead of what would have likely been a red-shirt campaign. But Nunez is a legit talent, and actually accounted himself well – even though much of it was mop-up vs. reserve Bulldog defenders, he completed four of his five pass attempts, and also ran for 76 yards and a TD.
Nunez is going to be a work in progress, athletic but obviously lacking in experience. Do not be surprised if there is some aggressiveness this week, however, and one of Spurrier’s first comments – “We’re going to let him go play” is also not Coach-Speak. Spurrier understands young athletes, and the QB position in particular, about as well as anyone in his profession, and you sense that he believes he has something special in Nunez. Look for the read option to become a big park of the Gamecock arsenal again, and off of the dismal team effort at Georgia, a spark can be lit from having Nunez get the start. And if Spurrier believes Nunez is his guy for many seasons ahead, he may also go out of his way to make sure that spark ignites.
Friday Fantasy QB
OK, you know the drill here – if you are going to have a chance to work your way through the maizes that are out there you will need to be a little unconventional, and find a few paths where you are not following the crowd. The search here is to find particular value settings at QB, which can leave you some roster cap for plenty of options at the other spots. This week the sleeper is BLAKE BORTLES (Jacksonville), far down the list at the major operators (to save time in finding him, start at the bottom and work your way up). The Jaguars have done a terrific job in filling out the WR corps around him, with Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Marquise Lee and Rashad Greene bringing ability and depth, and while Mercedes Lewis has not worked his way into the passing game yet, that will happen in time.
Here is what helps this week – the anticipated game flow can lead to Bortles not only airing it out often, but likely in some late-game stretches against less than the best Patriots effort. Bill Belichick has been know to use settings like this to keep key cogs fresh for the long grind ahead, instead of slamming the back-door shut, and his 2-9 ATS mark since 2008 when favored by -13 or more is a subtle hint at the kind of room that Bortles may have to pile up numbers from behind in the second half.
In the Sights, NFL…
This one is probably not going to come as a surprise, after dealing with the Romo-less transition of the Dallas offense in Wednesday’s column - I believe that both from an efficiency and a pace standpoint, the markets have come up shot in adjusting the Cowboys properly, so #479 ATLANTA/DALLAS UNDER brings solid value to step in.
The efficiency adjustment is rather simple, take away DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant and Tony Romo, without really adding anything to replace them, and there has been a major paradigm shift. And that begs for a little musical interlude -
Yet note that in 2014, with all of those Pro Bowl hands touching the ball, Cowboy home games only played to a 44.6 average in regulation. There is a reason for that, which may become an even bigger one here – the Dallas offense was a pantheon to ball control and pacing, finishing dead last in the NFL in seconds per snap at 30.1. So far this season that has dropped to 32.8, which counts all of those plays with Romo through the first two games, and some of them with Bryant as well.
What happens now? A team that is accustomed to playing slowly as a matter of routine should play even slower. And there are no major fears of Brandon Weeden striking quickly to alter that. Meanwhile the Falcons are not going to set a blazing pace themselves, showing #18 so far as Kyle Shanahan tries to balance out a scheme that had become far too reliant on Matt Ryan’s arm last year. The expected game pace limits the number of opportunities for the team’s to score, and with neither having a red zone RB to fear, some of the chances they do get could up up in FG attempts instead of TDs.
In the Sights, MLB…
Anthony DeSclafani had been an under the radar meal ticket until losing at Milwaukee on Sunday, but it was not all bad news out of that one – it has the markets even less inclined to pay attention, and with the Mets as high as -140 in the early morning trading, #908 CINCINNATI is a fit.
DeSclafani’s form continued against the Brewers, once again not issuing a walk, and over his last nine starts it has been a sparkling 54 Ks vs. only 7 BB. But on Sunday he got caught up in a cycle of Baseball Being Baseball, which sometimes simply happens. With a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the fifth the first two Milwaukee batters reached base. The next two hit infield groundballs, one right back to DeSclafani, and the other to Eugenio Suarez at short. The end result of those two grounders? Three runs scored. Sometimes baseball just does that, with two errors on the same play igniting the sequence. But DeSclafani’s last two home starts were solid wins over contenders St. Louis and Pittsburgh, and I believe he can be trusted to bring confidence despite the ugly fifth inning vs. the Brewers.
Meanwhile Noah Syndegaard is being backed by the early money despite being a wild card or this setting – he will be pitching for only the third time in September, and only the second road game in a full month. Syndegaard’s road struggles were detailed here back in August, and having faced only the punchless Braves from the visitor’s dugout since then, there is a confidence issue that may yet linger.
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