Point Blank – August 31
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFLX3…
Time to sort through the weekend pre-season results to try to establish some proper perspectives on what may be difficult reads for the marketplace, this week with some QB situations taking the lead.
Item: It is not too early to worry about Peyton Manning
Peyton Manning’s late-season slump in 2014 was a lead topic multiple times in this column; whether it was injury or the aging process he was nothing better than an average QB over the final stages of the campaign. His passes simply lacked zip. That has put him squarely under the microscope in the pre-season, and it is not too early for there to be genuine concern – the same lack of zip on his passes is evident again.
Manning has been on the field for seven possessions this August, with the Bronco offense failing to reach the end zone in scoring just six points. His 35 pass attempts have only generated 176 yards, with one INT, and he has also been sacked three times. But it is not the statistical view that creates a degree of alarm, it is how his passes have floated. Despite having had a full off-season to heal, Manning looks a lot like the same QB he was back in the dismal playoff loss to Indianapolis in January, when the Colt defense was playing the safeties close to the line of scrimmage and daring him to beat them deep. There will not be another chance to see him play before the opener vs. the Ravens, and that makes his final takeaway something that needs to be filed - "Would we like to be a finely-tuned machine going into Week 1? Sure. With some newness, some different players and some different things that we're doing, that's what we're working toward. … Not to make excuses you can still win games as you’re kind of finding your identity. We're still very much figuring out who we are and what we're going to be as far as things we can really hang our hat on. I still think we can win games as we're developing kind of that identity."
One of the keys to Manning’s brilliant career was in not having to worry about finding an identity. If the Broncos are indeed still in that mode, you should be ready to react early in a marketplace that may weigh the past too heavily (more on that in a moment). But also be mindful of this – the Denver running game and defense (the starting 49er offense went into the locker room at halftime with zero passing yards) look awfully good right now. It may not be a case of reducing the overall power rating as much as projecting a different flow on Totals, both in terms of tempo and production.
Item: Putting Jimmy Garropolo’s last two games in perspective
Yes, there is the chance that something unexpected could happen in court today to alter the Tom Brady suspension for New England. Do not hold your breath, but there will be time to adjust for that should it happen. Instead the focus should go to Garoppolo’s last two games, which look brilliant on paper, but not so good when that paper is held up to the light, and you can see through it.
Garropolo struggled in the pre-season opener vs. Green Bay, looking slow and tentative in the pocket, which led to seven sacks. The last two games has been an entirely different story, however, as he threw to a 41-50-395 line, with a pair of TDs. The optimist would offer that he shook off the nerves of the opener, and settled into a groove. The realist has to reserve judgment.
I am not sure if Garropolo threw a single pass against a first-team defense through that cycle. In week #2 the Patriots fell down 21-0 at New Orleans, before he generated most of his production in the second half. Then at Carolina on Friday the Pats were down 16-7 in the fourth quarter before he directed a pair of late scoring drives. As such, there is still much to prove, and in addition to Garropolo having worked largely against reserve defenders, there is the issue of also not having all that much work with the first team New England offense, which can inhibit the development process.
Not that anyone has had much work with the first team. While I would hesitate to read too much into it, the bottom line for Tom Brady this pre-season was one touchdown in 10 drives. Injuries have certainly played a part, with Rob Gronkowski, Brandon LaFell and Julian Edelman not playing on Friday, and there were also three rookies seeing major time in the OL. Because of this do not be surprised if Bill Belichick takes a slightly different approach against the Giants on Thursday – there is still significant work needed to be done if Garropolo will indeed be taking the snaps through the first quarter of the season. Although the opener does not appear to be very daunting…
Item: But Garropolo gets to open vs. the Steeler defense
Back in early August I began a tour of key issues across NFL training camps by focusing on the transition of the Pittsburgh defense in the first season of the post-Dick LeBeau era. As such the Steelers have been under the microscope, and while there is the constant caveat of not reading too much into pre-season results, it is difficult to put into words how bad they were at Buffalo on Saturday. A mediocre Bills offense, playing without Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods or LeSean McCoy, rolled to an astonishing 43 points and 542 yards, averaging 8.0 per snap.
Yes, there were three defensive starters missing, but when the game began, that still meant that Pittsburgh had more starters on defense than Buffalo did on offense. On their first two drives the Bills rolled for 123 yards and two TDs on only six snaps, and it only slowed down a little the rest of the way. It wasn’t as though it was just one hot hand at QB -
Manuel 7-8-170
Cassel 6-7-38
Taylor 12-13-122
Simms 5-5-65
Simms was not even expected to play, as Rex Ryan tries to decide the order of the three-man rotation, but he had seen enough from his top trio. And it is likely that half of the receptions went to players that will not make the regular season roster.
Here is Mike Tomlin’s post-mortem - “We are getting near the end of this process and there are a lot of elements at play. It isn't a complete body of work. A couple Thursdays from now, we will be on the clock, so we better get better and solid in a hurry. … As we push toward the end of this thing, I'd like to see guys with their arrows pointing up, fighting for jobs. Some of those guys looked like they were walking dead.”
In what should have been the prime dress rehearsal of the pre-season, the Pittsburgh defense was nowhere near being ready for prime time.
Item: Getting prepared to like A. J. McCarron
You might not take a second glance at the performance by A. J. McCarron against the Bears this weekend – his numbers were solid, but it could easily appear as though he was making things happen against a bunch of reserves. That was not the case. While the Chicago defense is nothing special (a topic that will come up on this page later in the week), it was McCarron out there against the starters for a long stretch, and that is where things begin to get interesting in Cincinnati.
Andy Dalton was not pulled because the first team offense scored on the opening drive, he was actually pulled because he got dinged up a bit. So it was McCarron and mostly the starters on offense the rest of the half, and he led back-to-back TD drives, going 6-6 for 87 yards in the process. Not included in his stat column was a 43-yard completion to Marvin Jones that was called back by a holding penalty. McCarron was steady and confident, although things did fall off in the third quarter, when it was reserves vs. reserves.
Could that first half flash turn out to be a blessing later for the Bengals? Might it introduce something that otherwise may not have happened until next season? Dalton simply is who he is, a guy good enough to get a team to the playoffs, but lacking upside. With the weapons this offense has in the skill positions, especially with Jones now healthy, they are capable of winning games in January with better play from the QB position. McCarron brings the upside that Dalton does not. He should get a lot of playing time against the Colts on Thursday, and while it will be almost all reserves vs. reserves around him, might he be going from merely easing his way into the NFL, to auditioning to be in the mix for legit playing time should there be a stumble by Dalton during the regular season?
That sequence vs. Chicago on Saturday may turn out to be much more significant than it would appear on the casual glance.
Item: The Robert Griffin era should be over in Washington
Rumors are circulating across the Sports Mediaverse that not only has Kirk Cousins been named the starting QB for the Washington opener vs. Miami, but that Griffin has been made available for trade purposes, and with little interest being shown, might even be cut before the season begins. While that may seem a bit dramatic it isn’t, although the media flow will naturally fan the flames. When asked a few days ago about a line adjustment for Week #1 if it was Cousins instead of Griffin, the answer was a simple one – really no change at all.
Griffin is a shadow of what his potential first appeared to be because of injury, and he may never get close to where he once was. Perhaps even more important is that he is not a great fit for the Jay Gruden offense, and Gruden has not helped by failing to adjust the schemes for some of Griffin’s abilities. As such I believe it is better both for Griffin, and the franchise, if they simply move on. Another autumn of musical chairs at QB, with the media circus that will attract, absolutely does not accelerate the process of building an offense.
This is going to be a lost season for the Redskins. Neither Kirk Cousins nor Colt McCoy have the tools to get a team into the playoffs, and anything better than 6-10 would be a surprise. That is something that savvy management should recognize, and make the focus more on building towards the future. Part of that building process should mean eliminating distractions now, and Griffin remaining in Washington will provide just such a distraction.
In the Sights…
With the NCAA limits being raised today, and with week #3 of the pre-season finished in the NFL, it is time to officially be in full football mode. That means an opportunity to get in play now for the opening week NFL board, and it stems from one of the takes above - #486 Denver Under. There is as high as 50.5 out there, and still plenty of 50.
Times are changing with the Broncos. Manning and the passing game are in decline, but the running attack and defense are first-rate. Not only will that impact efficiency, but game pace as well. Yet the markets have to be anchored by that 17-7 run to the Over in Denver home games since Manning came on board, which creates opportunity in the early stages. A first-team offense that failed to score a touchdown in the pre-season is not going to explode out of the gate. Meanwhile the Ravens also bring a value aspect as well, a pass defense that was only middle-of-the-road last year (#15 on the Football Outsiders best charts) getting better simply by having the key cogs healthy again, after injuries riddled the secondary in 2014. Better coverage means even more time for Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs to get to opposing QBs, and that pass rush is capable of disrupting Manning’s flow throughout in this one.
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