Point Blank – August 4
Will tonight be "Miller Time" (just drink something better if you take the plunge and are rooting)…Can the Viking OL open the door for the skill guys…Nine innings may be a long time for Dan Jennings…
This has been a terrific season for Shelby Miller in terms of pitching a baseball. Just not for game outcomes. He has remained close to his K/9 rates, a 7.5 off of a career 7.6, but is at career bests in BB/9 and GB%, which has led to counts of 2.44 in ERA and 3.24 in FIP that are also career bests. But all of that has not translated well into one particular category – Miller has only been credited with five wins in 21 starts.
As noted before, personal W/L records for a pitcher carry little value in the handicapping process, except when they become extreme to the point that it can impact a performer’s psyche. I wrote that about Johnny Cueto back on Friday, and how his 32-10/1.96 over his last five seasons at the GABP can in part be contributed to the confidence that is built by success being rewarded. Of course, Baseball Being Baseball, there is also that flip side, which puts Miller under the microscope this evening.
Consider this – over his last 13 starts Miller has worked to a 3.19 ERA, and in seven of those games allowed one earned run or none. That is impressive across the summer heat. Yet he did not get a single win through that cycle, and the Braves went 2-11. That can take a toll on the psyche of a pitcher, and the most recent stretch may have been the most frustrating of all – over his last eight starts there was only an Atlanta lead at the end of one inning, the third at Philadelphia on Thursday.
So now comes the dilemma for the handicapper. Does one back Miller as an under-valued commodity, especially with the Braves getting back-to-back wins for a little spark? can a rally like the one that took place vs. the Giants reverberate throughout the clubhouse, boosting Miller’s energy? Or does the psyche of a young pitcher get a little too bruised to trust?
Despite being tagged with another “L” at Philadelphia in that last outing, Miller’s composure was fine – 75 of the 104 pitches he threw were in the strike zone, and he patiently kept at what he does best, getting a 61.9 GB% that was his fourth best of the season (21 starts). It would seem to bode well for this setting, and to get him at an underdog price against Jake Peavy does bring some attraction – Peavy’s SwS% has fallen off so drastically that the appearance of “form” may only be a mirage. But a decision will have to wait until later, with the prospect of the Atlanta lineup being without both Freddie Freeman and Andrelton Simmons begging caution for now.
(UPDATING: Freeman has landed on the DL, which will likely leave me sidelined for this one, unless there is a market surge to the Giants later in the day)
Camp Questions – Minnesota Vikings, and that OL chemistry
The Viking offense has a chance to be dynamic. While he did not have the demeanor to excel as a head coach, Norv Turner is a terrific OC, and he has to like the tools in the skill positions that he has to work with. The return of Adrian Peterson adds not only the natural rushing production but also a major play action element to take pressure off of Teddy Bridgewater. Matt Asiata goes from being a forced starter to one of the NFL’s best back-up RBs. Jerick McKinnon is a terrific third down threat. Then look at how the receivers can spread the field – imagine what a healthy Kyle Rudolph can do at TE in Turner’s schemes (think Antonio Gates), and in Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson, Cordarrelle Patterson and Jarius Wright there is excellent depth and an assortment of different skill sets at WR. The prospects are interesting, if…
The OL can hold up their part. And that is where my training camp focus will be. Can Matt Kalil get back to form after having arthroscopic surgery on both knees, which led to a subpar 2014 campaign? Can Mike Harris make the switch from RT to RG, where he has opened #1 on the depth chart despite only playing one career game at the position? And of course the reason for Harris being at RG is that Brando Fusco will be starting at LG, but Fusco only played three games in 2014 before an injury ended his season. Also returning from injury is RT Phil Loadholt, who missed the final five games on 2014. John Sullivan at center was the only one that played healthy through all of last season. There was a lot of mixing and matching in off-season drills, including all three drafted rookies, each who had played tackle in college, being tried at guard. Where will they line up now?
Chemistry matters in the OL, so it is not just a case of each individual player showing that he can handle his position, but that they can also function as a group. Mike Zimmer made the unusual pronouncement that no changes would be made in the OL the first four days of practice, unusual in that it is something that would rarely need to be stated. It was his attempt to try to develop some continuity, so I will be watching the pre-season closely to see if this unit meshes, or if there will be continued shuffling. This offense has a lot of upside, if the guys up front can perform at least adequately.
In the Sights…
I don’t believe the markets are in the right range in understanding the current realities of the Mets and Marlins, nor some particular issues for tonight’s matchup, and that means a more than fair price to get behind #909 New York for this setting.
The Mets took sole possession of first place in the NL East last night, and the energy that comes with that matters in so many different ways, one of the keys being that the defense has moved to #1 on the PADE charts for the full season. The team confidence level should only build with the added pieces on hand, and the work of Noah Syndergaard and Bartolo Colon the last two nights has the bullpen well-set for this evening. With Jon Niese having allowed three earned runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts, but staying under the radar because in half of those games he allowed two earned runs or less and did not get a “W”, the pen may not be needed for much.
The bullpen equation is entirely different for the Marlins. First note just how dismal their run has been – they have lost the last eight games not started by Jose Fernandez, getting out-scored by 29 runs in the process, and since the All Star break it has been a 2-11 in non-Fernandez games, the wins coming when Tom Koehler and Mat Latos tossed shutouts. There just has not been much production in the post-Stanton cycle, and that is not going to change, but tonight the pitching may be the biggest headache. This start would have gone to Latos or Dan Haren, who are each now pitching for contenders, so instead it will be Brad Hand, and his ability to work deep into the game is a question mark.
Hand has only started three times this season, and has only had four appearances out of the bullpen over the past month, working just 5 1/3 innings. He may be nothing special in the innings he does work, but then what? With Carter Capps on the DL, and Andre Rienzo, Chris Reed and Brian Ellington all carrying fatigue ratings off of Monday’s pitch counts, patching together nine innings will be another difficult task for Dan Jennings, in a season filled with many.
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