Point Blank – July 6
Is it Time to Sell on Sale (in Sports there can be too much of a good thing)...A Tale of Two Offenses vs. Lefties…
We get to start with a couple of clichés today. The first is that the best time to start playing on a trend in Sports is right as it begins. That phrasing gets lost on some, who will counter with the question of how one would know if something is a trend before it even happens, but you know to ignore those types. The second has to do with whether there can truly be too much of a good thing, and for the purposes of this exercise, that answer is yes.
Then let’s add a foundation of the MLB marketplace: The money loves starting pitchers, even in these times of modern metrics. Many of those metrics, you see, actually showcase particular abilities of starters even more.
To proceed: Chris Sale has been throwing baseballs at a truly historical level over the past two months. The premise put forward this morning is that it is a performance arc that is going to be difficult to maintain, and the timing to project a lessening of his effectiveness may be at hand, especially given tonight’s unique team vs. team matchup.
First the basics. Sale has worked to a 1.78 tune over his last 10 outings, which is great, but would not get submitted for movie rights. Here is what does – he cranked out 76 innings over that span, with 115 strikeouts vs. only 12 walks. That is historic. He has done it by consistently throwing pitches that batters could not make contact with, and for the most part that is a very, very good thing. It has put him atop the leaderboard as the All Star break approaches, with only Clayton Kershaw even close -
Swinging Strike Leaders
Sale 16.0
Kershaw 15.6
Liriano 14.2
Scherzer 14.2
Shields 14.2
So what could be wrong with a guy dominating opposing offenses so much that they have not been able to get the ball in play? Non-contact outs require a lot pitches, and that is where Sale is being overtaxed; it is possible for a pitcher’s stuff to be too good, in terms of the toll it takes going forward. In each of those 10 outings Sale threw at least 109 pitches, and in four of those games he topped 115. Let’s set some perspective on that.
If we look at some other MLB heavyweights, Corey Kluber has reached 109 pitches six times this season, Max Scherzer four, Felix Hernandez three, and Kershaw twice. And that is for the full season, while Sale has done it 10 straight times. In 2014, Sale only topped the 109 count 12 times; he may match that by the All Star break. As for his four games of more than 115 pitches, that other quartet has combined to do that only three times.
Have Robin Ventura and the Chicago brain trust over-used their ace? There can be a degree of blame in terms of how the long-term plays out, but on a game-by-game basis they were just out there trying to win – even with Sale’s brilliance a lack of offensive support only led to a 6-4 record across those games, and the White Sox do not have an effective set-up corps in the bullpen. Ventura did what he thought best to win on that particular day, which is perhaps what a manager does under the kind of pressure that is on him, with an under-achieving roster sitting in last place in the AL Central. But in literally going all-in across this cycle, has something for the longer-term been sacrificed? For as brilliant as Sale’s mechanics are, he only weighs 180 pounds, and as the heat of July/August become factors going forward, I will be watching closely for any signs that he is losing effectiveness. And tonight it will be time to watch with a little financial interest as well…
In the Sights…
A prime reason why the Sale topic is brought forward today is a most unique matchup, especially in terms of what I wrote earlier about the markets and their long-standing weighting of starting pitchers. Sale is being pushed out as a solid favorite tonight despite the fact that Mark Buehrle is having a terrific season for #709 Toronto, albeit through a much different path than Sale. Buehrle is getting less than half of the K/9 of Sale, but continues to be a master of the craft, putting the ball in the right places – his BB/9 is his best since 2005, and second best of his career, while his GB% is the best since 2008, and third career best. Note the pitching economy – over his last 10 starts Buehrle has churned 73 1/3 innings, nearly as many as the 76 of Sale in the same time frame, but has done it via 981 pitches, compared to 1,147 for Sale.
It is the offensive measures that bring the market respect for Sale fully into play. Is this MLB’s best offense vs. its worst?
Runs AVG OBP SLG OPS
Blue Jays 460 (1) .267 (4) .334 (2) .449 (1) .783 (1)
White Sox 271 (30) .241 (27) .296 (29) .358 (30) .653 (30)
Rather significant, isn’t it, for the superior team to be an underdog in this range. But take it a step further, and analyze the performances vs. left-handed pitching, and the gap only grows wider:
AVG OBP SLG OPS
Blue Jays .307 (1) .374 (1) .498 (1) .872 (1)
White Sox .221 (29) .268 (30) .305 (30) .573 (30)
Toronto has been bashing lefties at an amazing level, with no other team even close across those categories – the second best AVG is .307, OBP .351, SLG .429 and OPS .780.
For Chicago to give up this much in the offensive equation, and still be favored in this range, speaks volumes about just how good Sale has been, and the markets have not missed a beat in recognizing that. I believe they have set this one too high, for a pitcher that may struggle to maintain that recent performance level.
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