Game 654 Tulsa @ LA helps illustrate nicely why smaller bettor can have way higher edges in their betting.
Winless (at the time) LA opens up -2 vs. a Tulsa team that was 8-2. You can see the oddsmakers dilemma here....the opening number looks crazy.
However, in fact it was a bad opening number. LA is still missing Candice Parker, but with the other players back they are prettty much an average WNBA team.......which makes them better than Tulsa right now, with Skylar Diggins out for the year, and with Simms out as well.
Further, the spot is better for LA as both team are off back to backs, but LA was home last night, Tulsa was in Phx (well they were supposed to be in Phx, they really didn't even show up).
Add it up, and 654 LA is a decent bet today -4.5, and is the free play of the day.
However, I bet LA -2 yesterday into the early markets. Then on my overnight release i gave them out -4, and -175 ML (some -3.5 was still there also).
You can see why big syndicates don't want to bother with small sports, with higher expenses, and lots of guys, they can almost never tip their hand to get down $2,000 on a game early and move the line 2 points.......but missing that low lying fruit can REALLY reduce your longterm win rate.
On the handicapping front, I am still hung over from my 3* loss on the Cubs/Mets UNDER 6.5 last night. To sum it up, the game should have gone way under. While watching Sports Center last night I saw the Mets outfielder make a ridiculously lame jump at a Cubs HR that bounced off the top of the 8 foot wall.......despite that it was 4-1 with 2 outs in the top of the 9th, and the Cubs who aren't hitting got 2 more runs.
Working on CFL and MLB.......let's bounce back today!