Point Blank – June 4
Will the Finals last much longer than the Prelude...What to do, when the Markets place the Twins on too high of a shelf…This time for the Reds, the Price was not right…Zeroing in on a Game #1 edge…
If it seems like a long time since the sound of a basketball being dribbled on the hardwoods it has been, the NBA allowing a delay that often leads to a low quality of play, but this time might actually have benefitted each team – Kyrie Irving has had a chance to get closer to full health for the Cavaliers, while one can only speculate as to whether Klay Thompson would have been able to go if the series started over the weekend. But while there is plenty of drama for the Sports Mediaverse to run with, any series involving LeBron James bringing a natural abundance, might this one not last much longer than the downtime that was the prelude?
The discussion of the series began on this page last week, so I do not wish to be redundant. But since it is time to get the money in play, here are the cards I am holding, as money gets pushed to the middle of the table – in terms of basketball execution, I believe it will be difficult for Cleveland to win more than a game.
The gist is rather simple. While there is a bit of a nouveau image for Golden State, with Steve Kerr in his first campaign on the sidelines, this group has been together through three forays into the post-season. Two years ago the Warriors beat Denver in the first round, before losing to Finals-bound San Antonio in a competitive set that saw two of the six games extend to overtime. The starting lineup for the Game #6 defeat was Thompson-Curry-Barnes-Ezeli-Bogut, with Green and Lee coming off the bench. Then last year much of that group, sans the injured Bogut, that fought the Clippers into Game #7 before coming up a bit short. Bogut’s presence might have well been enough to turn that result. But what those last three seasons have done is give this team the chance to develop quite a chemistry, and with Kerr’s playbook accentuating the talent on hand, it has been enhanced. This is not just a team with good basketball players; it is one that plays good basketball.
Contrast that with the Cleveland rotation, with three of the top seven not with the team on New Year’s Eve. And it has not been a smooth assimilation once Cavalier uniforms were donned, with the development being hampered by injuries to Irving and Kevin Love. What was a deplorable defense through the early stages did get better when Timofey Mozgov came on board to protect the rim, and Iman Shumpert to guard the perimeter, but for the full season they still allowed more assists that any other team. Which offense was #1 in generating them? The Warriors, of course. The Cleveland defense is better than that particular number indicates, but team chemistry is still a work in progress.
In the playoffs the Cavaliers have won on talent more than on execution. Despite making it to the finals they have the same assist count as their opponents through those 14 games, the offense rating #15 in assists per game, and #14 in assists per possession, of the 16 playoff teams. Naturally Golden State rates #1 in both categories, with 116 more assists than the Cavs, despite only playing one more game. Now an offense that lacks cohesion has to take on the NBA’s best defense, and also one of the rare units that can legitimately guard James, with a rotation of Harrison Barnes/Draymond Green/Andre Iguodala arguably the best counter of any roster.
LeBron will still compete hard and make plays. But the gap in team chemistry is going to show over the 48 minutes of each game, especially with the intensity level the Warrior defense plays at, which does not allow for much breathing room. And that is why I do not believe this series lasts long. The final shopping this morning will be to zero in on the best options for “Warriors win in less than Seven”, and so far it appears that playing individual tickets on them to win in Four, Five or Six will pay a little better than a -1.5 games prop.
As you finish your own breakdowns, if you want an interesting read on the difference between the supporting casts, Cleveland without James and Golden State without Curry, try this from Neil Paine - http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/where-this-years-cavs-rank-among-lebrons-nba-finals-supporting-casts/. Some fun stuff there. So what is the best way to take advantage of Game #1? Back to that in a moment, but first it is time to hit the diamonds…
Meanwhile, those anti-Minnesota thoughts…
Last Friday there was a detailed take noting the most unusual path the Twins had taken to first place in the A.L. Central, opening at a 60 percent win rate despite being below MLB average in offense, pitching and defense. There was a focus placed on taking advantage of a projected decline in their scoreboard results, as a limited roster struggles to maintain that tightrope walk, and naturally that brought daydreams of a potentially nice run with the concept. But the MLB market is a different place in 2015.
The theoretical key to a sequence against Minnesota would be to take advantage of a team that was over-rated, usually a consequence of wins exceeding abilities. But it did not happen in this marketplace. A struggling Boston team has closed in the range of -190, -148 and -140 over the first three games of the current series in Fenway, an indication that those moving the biggest piles of money had a power rating on the Twins close to my own. They are not being priced like a team that is 31-21, but instead like one that is #22 in OPS, #20 in FIP, and #24 in PADE, among the best single-category metrics for team offense, pitching and defense. Today is more of the same, Boston in the low 140’s despite continued offensive struggles, and the inconsistent knuckleballs of Steven Wright on the hill.
So what does a bettor do? Tip the cap and move on, with the Twins being reduced to a one game at a time bunch, like almost all others across the league. The bidding in this particular auction has gone too high.
About Last Night…
Takes on the weaknesses of the ABC Cincinnati bullpen have been rather common here this season, and last night Aroldis Chapman himself joined the crowd, suffering through his first blown save since June 28 of last year. It marked back-to-back nights in which the Reds could not maintain a late lead against of the weakest teams in the Major’s, and could be a difficult blow to their psyche, which is already in a precarious condition, having fallen a dozen games behind the Cardinals in the N.L. Central.
But did Bryan Price open that door by sending Mike Leake out to begin the ninth in the first place? Leake had indeed been terrific, carrying a no-hitter into the seventh, but not only had he thrown 107 pitches through the eighth, three short of his season high, he had to sit through a long top of the ninth in which seven Cincinnati batters went to the plate, wrapped around a pitching change. With Chapman having had four days off, and more needing the work than any more rest, shouldn’t it have been an automatic?
The search for answers led to current edition of the Cincinnati Enquirer. C. Trent Rosencras wrote that Leake did not ask Price to send him back out for the ninth, and then quoted the pitcher directly - "I felt good. Slightly stiffer, but, I mean, I still felt good. Probably if we had one more hitter come up for us, I probably would have pulled myself because it'd be a long sit." But he did begin the stanza, before being pulled after hits by Ben Revere and Jeff Francouer, the long at-bat of the latter stretching Leake’s outing to a career-high 119 pitches. And instead of starting the inning, which is usually the case, Chapman had to work with runners on base, operating from the stretch instead of being able to wind up and get loose a bit quicker. For a rare time, he failed.
The Price take - "It's one of those things — you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. You take a guy out of a one-hit shutout and then if the same result happens, it's 'why are you taking a guy out? He's given up one hit.' The only way I don't have to answer these types of questions at the end of the game is when our guys are going out there and execute and get the job done. If not, there is speculation if the decisions are not right.”
The defensiveness following a tough defeat should be expected. But part of getting a team to execute is putting the players in the best position to do so. Last night, Price didn’t.
In The Sights…
Part of the concept I am investing in for the NBA Finals is the ability of Golden State to defend the Cleveland offense. There is a good rotation against James, and unless Kyrie Irving is near top health, the other Cavalier options are inconsistent. The prime key being the lack of chemistry – there is not a sophistication in the playbook to break down a quality defense for open looks. As such, I believe 701 Cleveland Team Total Under brings good value to the table, especially with the Thursday morning markets moving the full-game Total a bit higher. There is 98.5 out there, with a chance of 99 to come, and that is asking a lot in this matchup. In this case it is not just the X’s beating O’s, but a continued market error in terms of the Warrior defense.
One of the things that you should be in a habit of doing is reading the closing Side/Total as game projections. The markets are making a statement about both the offense and the defense. A 10-point favorite with a Total of 210 would mean a projection of 110-100. Evaluating the results from each aspect of the projection brings valuable detail that can be employed going forward. By using those calculations, the Warriors have been projected by the markets to allow 98.4 points per game at home in the playoffs, but have only given up 92.6, only once allowing a team to score more than 99. I see more of the same tonight, especially with an anticipation of long Cleveland possessions, an inability in this matchup to create good looks early in the shot clock.
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