Point Blank – May 28
The Warrior “D”, and how the West was Won (Playoff Passages #37)…The Finals, as a chemistry lesson…No, you don’t have to stay up for the full game in Seattle…
Golden State 104 Houston 90
It is interesting to read some of the post-mortems from Rockets/Warriors Game #5, and those takes on how ragged and uneven the play was. But while it may not have been a thing of beauty from an offensive standpoint, it was an evening that does help the cement to begin drying on the epitaph for the 2014-15 season – that Golden State defense has been the story. And “Champions” will end up being chiseled into that epitaph.
A key for many in the betting markets is that it is a story that began emerging early. While those long bombs from Stephen Curry made the Sports Center highlight reels, the early defensive numbers coming out of those games were intriguing. Then they got damn interesting. And when all of the counting was done, the Warriors were leading across the key metrics by a wide margin. Their .982 PPP far out-distanced the competition (Milwaukee was next at .993, only San Antonio and Memphis were also under 1.0). They allowed 42.8 percent shooting, which was also #1. They were #1 in two-point shot percentage, and #5 against triples. And last night the defense took command.
A stat line for the ages will be James Harden nearly having as many turnovers (14) as points (13). As a team the Rockets had more turnovers (20) than assists (16), and they scored at a .870 PPP clip. It was not just the Golden State hustle and intensity on defense, but also on the boards, where it was a 59-39 domination. And that is how it eventually broke open on an evening on which Curry and Draymond Green combined to shoot 10-36, including 3-16 triples, and Klay Thompson’s hot hand was limited to 22:08 because of foul trouble and injury. While there may be some that follow the sport still thinking of them as a perimeter shooting team first, it is really defense, tenacity and depth that have been the major stories.
On those latter fronts, the +/- counts from Thursday tell the tale. While Houston was still in the hunt to win the game into the fourth quarter, every Golden State player finished with a positive count on those tables, and every Rocket had a negative one. You do not see that often when a game stays competitive into the latter stages. Credit the Rockets for playing hard, but they did not play well, with poor shot selection again an issue, and Harden’s inability to even get them into an offense on many sets taking a toll (the bulk of his turnovers came before anyone else touched the ball on the possession). They have been fun to watch over the past five weeks because of the entertainment value that they brought, but they will not be missed.
And on to the Finals
One of the items I noted in yesterday’s column was a preference for Golden State in the matchup vs. Cleveland, and the hope that the way the Cavaliers closed Atlanta out in such dominating fashion could bring a bit of a price break. It has. While -275 to -300 had been in the discussion over the weekend, it looks like -240 will be settle out this morning. I will be taking the time to sort through the offerings, including the odds of the Warriors winning in five or in six games, before pulling the trigger, but last night really did bring what I believe will be the key into play – it is the teamwork and tenacity of Steve Kerr’s squad, especially on defense, that will be the controlling factor.
Golden State plays with a high level of basketball sophistication on both ends of the court. That comes when talented players are together for a while, and are tested under pressure. Two years ago Curry/Thompson/Barnes/Bogut/Green/Ezeli were in the second round of the playoffs, before falling to San Antonio in a competitive six-game series. Last year it was a tough loss in seven games to the Clippers, a result that might have been different had Bogut been available. This collective group has a lot of floor minutes under their belts, including those playoff encounters vs. difficult competition.
Cleveland lacks that. LeBron James is the best player on the planet, not only in terms of his abilities, but in getting the most out of those that are around him. But that roster just has not been around him very long. Three of the top seven players in the rotation were not with the Cavaliers in early January, and injuries since then have slowed the assimilation process down. I do not believe they bring the chemistry and sophistication that it will take to withstand the Golden State energy and precision, especially since this is one of the rare settings in which LeBron will have to work for everything he can get – Kerr’s ability to rotate Green, Iguodala and Barnes against him will mean not only a quality defender at all times, but also a fresh one.
Let’s set some perspective in terms of teamwork and chemistry. During the regular season, Golden State led the NBA in assists-per-possession. During the post-season, the Warriors have been #1 as well, at 18.7 percent. But of the 16 teams that made the playoffs, the Cavaliers are only #14 at 15.2 in the post-season. I believe that is of extreme significance, and while the Cleveland defense made massive improvements over the course of the season, the Cavs still allowed more assists than any other team. It is what happens when you have not played together as a unit very long.
There will be much more to come between now and the opening tipoff next Thursday (the NBA’s delay in beginning the Finals is once again silly), but for now it reads Warriors in Five.
In the Sights…
It is another Corey Kluber day, so faithful readers will know that I will be in play somewhere. The first two legs of the play-on sequence worked out well, Saturday not so much; by opting for the underdog return on the Run Line it led to a frustrating defeat in a game in which Kluber was dominating once again. Over the last three games he has struck out 37 of the 88 batters he has faced, which is nearly obscene from a historical perspective, all the while only issuing one BB. That is a rare level of command, and there is no particular reason why this offense turns that around.
So what is the path? Make it #912 First Half Under, because like Kluber, James Paxton is making up for lost time. Paxton got caught in one of those early-season ringers that can impact statistics well into the campaign – in his third start he was charged with seven earned runs in a single inning against Texas. As such, that 3-2/3.52 that he sports will not jump off the page. But over his last five starts it has been a 3-0/1.59, with more Ks than Hits allowed through that stretch, and his last two starts from this mound produced 14 consecutive scoreless innings. No Indian has stepped into the batters box against him, which is a significant advantage for a left-hander the first time around, and over the course of this season the Tribe will not be against their best vs. lefties. You should be able to find 3.5 available at -115 or less, and I will make that the path, calling for two starters in rhythm to dominate the early stages. (UPDATING - An unexpected generosity from the morning makes are making 7's available on the full game for the first time. Because of the value of that # for this setting, and the fact that it could be found at -115, I would suggest a split play, half of the ticket First Five Innings, and the remainder Full Game.)
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