Point Blank – May 21
The Markets Bet the Hawks & Over, and Lost (Playoff Passages #30)…More royalties, to the inventor of the “mute” button…Time for the beard to get a trim…
Cleveland 97 Atlanta 89
This one got interesting in the moments leading up to tipoff, an active marketplace taking a rather strong stand, as pick’em and 197 climbed to Atlanta -2, with places like Pinnacle and the Westgate going to -2.5, and the Total reaching 200. There was a major attempt by the markets to cash via a Hawks and Over portfolio, and it leads to the first two key takeaways for the Game #1 post-mortem, and prelude to Game #2 –
Item: The Pace
In placing the Under for the opener “In the Sights…” yesterday, there was a willingness to play at a price point before the market surge moved the game higher, and much of that thought process was based on the expected pace. I thought that both of these teams could tactically defend the other side well, which would mean deep trips into the shot clock, and also a dearth of fast breaks. So first file this away – the game was played at a 92.5 possession rate. No team in the NBA played slower than Utah this season, and the Jazz checked in at 92.8. This game was slow, with only 17 fast break points (by comparison, Rockets/Warriors Game #1 produced 56), and it may indeed be the way this series will flow.
Item: About that Cleveland defense
It has been written here several times already that there was a positive wrinkle for Cleveland losing Kevin Love, and having J. R. Smith suspended for the first two games of the Chicago series – except for David Blatt’s rather odd choice of starting Mike Miller in the opener vs. the Bulls (he played more minutes that night than the last six games combined), it has meant having Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert in the starting lineup. And that is the best Cavalier defensive group, even if Love was available.
How good have they been? In the six games that duo has started, Cleveland is allowing 89.5 PPG at .994 PPP. That would rate #1 on the former chart by a wide margin (no team was better than 94.9), and #2 on the latter, across the entire NBA this season. Pace and defense can be relative constants, of course. But Wednesday night brought a wild card element…
Item: About J. R. Smith
Smith simply went off, knocking down eight triples, and when he shoots well the energy of the rest of his game picks up – he also contributed eight rebounds and three assists. Cleveland held a tenuous 65-63 advantage with 3:00 remaining in the third quarter when the major explosion took place, Smith scoring 17 points in a span of just 4:31 to stretch the margin to 85-67. A key task becomes one of weighing the impact of that spurt in terms of the overall game flow, while also recognizing how unlikely it is to happen again (it was not bad defense being exploited; he simply made shots).
Take a look at the final +/- count for the reserves, with so much of that impacted by Smith’s charge -
Minutes +/-
Smith 35:47 +8
Dellavedova 24:45 +10
Jones 13:56 +11
---------------------------------
Schroder 18:32 -13
Bazmore 15:39 +1
Muscala 10:34 -12
Antic 9:49 -10
Given that the final game margin was eight, it shows just how even the rest of the proceedings were.
Item: DeMarre Carroll’s knee
Carroll’s absence will appear to be a major negative for the Hawks if he is not able to play on Friday. But there is an * that needs to be attached. While Carroll has done a good job in the past of pressuring LeBron James on the perimeter, he had a difficult time handling him in the post last night. James took 25 of his 26 field goal attempts inside the arc, and Atlanta may be better off in stretches with Paul Millsap guarding him, laying back a bit to force him to be taking jumpers. LeBron is a woeful 7-49 from three-point range in the playoffs; perhaps a matchup with Millsap forces a few more launches from deep. The Atlanta offense will suffer without Carroll, but there may be a plot twist defensively.
Item: Kyrie Irving’s knee/foot
Irving had a quiet opener, providing 27:19 minutes of mixed results. He was able to dish six assists, and knocked down 2-3 triples, but his defense was ineffective against Jeff Teague. His inability to stay in front of Teague led to more time than expected for Matthew Dellavedova, who missed all six shot attempts, but brought a better defensive presence. A key in understanding Irving may be that last night was as healthy as he is going to be in this series. With only one day off between games he may lose a little bounce. That matters in terms of the game tempo, and also whether Blatt will limit his minutes. Irving’s post-game take was anything but the elation of being up 1-0 - "This is obviously one of the most frustrating things I've ever dealt with. … Left knee is a little bit more stiff than I would want it to be, but like I said before in the past series, and I'm going to continue to say, no excuses. Just have to continue to put myself out there and put myself in the best position for my teammates.”
-----
So now on to Friday, but first a brief pause until the MRI results are available from Carroll. The markets have made what appears to be an early judgment on his status, with Cleveland -1 the most common current offering, an anti-Zig Zag that also flies in the face of yesterday’s late Atlanta capital (UPDATING: The tests show no structural damage, which elevates Carroll to "Questionable", and has moved the line back to pick'em, with Atlanta -1 beginning to show). That price would create some interest from this end towards the Hawks if Carroll can play – it would be far too much of an over-reaction to Smith’s outburst, instead of the way that the rest of the game flowed. But the Total will likely bring another significant investment whether he plays or not. Without Irving at anywhere near 100% the Cavaliers are not a difficult team to guard – players other than Smith were 27-68 (39.7 percent), including 2-14 beyond the arc. Meanwhile Carroll’s absence, and the wearing down of Kyle Korver, gives the Cleveland defense another opportunity to continue that solid run.
About Last Night…
Sometimes wins are not as not as good as they could be when there is the hope of getting a sequence into play, and after going to the well back-to-back times against Jason Marquis, there are already stories coming out of Cincinnati this morning that his days in the rotation may be numbered. That will be a bit of a shame, since there were hopes of taking advantage of him when the weather heats up at the Great American Ballpark.
But the word shame can also take on a deeper and darker connotation. By making reference to an old sitcom opener in setting up a Marquis take last week, I unwittingly set the stage for the following –
My sincere apologies to all; I am truly, truly sorry….
In the Sights…
Attempts to cash on James Harden Under Props did not work in Rockets/Warriors Game #1, but enough of the logic was visible as the game played out to try again. The expected edge going in was that the Golden State defense could guard Harden better than any in the league, with so many capable players that can be rotated against him. And while he did get to 28 points, he had to make some tough contested shots to get there. So I will be back in play. There are not many props on the board yet, but expect his points to be in the 27.5 range again, and that is a fair value to get in play.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)