Point Blank – May 19
Rockets/Warriors #1 – Don’t fear the beard…The Kluber Files (more Baseball Being Baseball)…Gio Gonzalez is becoming “grounded”…
OK, so a big part of yesterday’s post-column thread focused on the difficulties of finding value in the Houston/Golden State series, a setting in which the handicap and matchups say that the Rockets can not reach the orbit necessary to win, but the value meter gets close enough to almost buy anyway. Sometimes that happens. But there are elements inside of this series that will provide plenty to work with, and I am going to begin Game #1 with an opening narrative - I do not project big things from James Harden in this matchup, and I especially do not project them tonight.
The logic is a rather simple one – the Warriors are built to defend Harden about as well as any team. It will start on the opening possession with Klay Thompson, who brings a lot of defensive smarts along with that 6-7 wingspan. When Thompson sits, Andre Iguodala brings his 6-6 savvy and tenacity. There are times when Steve Kerr can change things up and use Draymond Green to bruise Harden a bit. And for short bursts, there can be Stephen Curry, Shaun Livingston, and Leandro Barbosa. Maybe even Harrison Barnes on a possession or two. In truth, there may not be a team in the NBA better suited to stopping what Harden does best, not just in terms of quality, but also depth, and the ability to wear him down.
So now to lay out some details. First would be to note that while you will read take after take from the Sports Mediaverse about how easily the Warriors handled the Rockets during the regular season, you need to take that with a grain of salt. Consider the first two meetings, when 53.6 percent of the floor minutes came from guys not in the playoff rotation, including starts from Tarik Black, Kostis Papanikolou, Isaiah Canon and Patrick Beverley. And how about all of those bench minutes from Nick Johnson and Joey Dorsey?
But, and it is an important but, I believe what does matter from those games is the way that Harden was defended. Over the four meetings, and 145:02 of court time, the Rockets were -54, the equivalent of losing a regulation game by 17.9 points. In that time Harden was 34-84 from the field (40.5 percent), 7-29 from three-point range (24.1), and had an ugly ratio of 21 assists vs. 15 turnovers. Only once in those four games did he get to the free throw line for more than seven attempts.
The logic fits. Harden is going to spend most of his offensive time going up against defenders that are not only first-rate, but are also bigger than he is. Meanwhile it is a defensive nightmare for him, with only limited skills, and often dubious intensity, having to chase Curry or Thompson all over the Golden State half-court offensive sets. Naturally any fatigue will impact his own offense, and that does bring a wild card into play for tonight – after he went 43:02 in Game #7 vs. the Clippers, if the Rockets do fall behind by a big margin, Kevin McHale may not use him much to chase, instead looking to save energy for Thursday night (plus the realization that they scrambled well without him in Game #6 at Los Angeles last Thursday). And by now Steve Kerr’s way of methodically grinding with a big lead has become common knowledge. So while Harden’s props will be based on his usual involvement in a game with a 220.5 Total, both his effectiveness and court time are in question.
So how do I begin this series? It will be a search for Harden props. Unfortunately they are not easy to pinpoint this early in the day – many of the books have their blueprints up for the menu to come, but not the specific numbers. There will be updates in the forum thread as options become known, and perhaps some of you can help by showing what you have found (with the gentlemen’s promise that we will all do our best to not ruin anyone’s value).
About Last Night…
I would be remiss in not following up with Corey Kluber, since he has been a topic so often here recently. Over the last two games he has thrown a baseball about as well as it can be thrown, with 30 Ks of the 57 batters he faced, vs. only six hits and one BB allowed. But this is not so much about Kluber specifically, as it is in understanding the nuances of baseball, which are essential lessons if one wants to be successful in the long-term. So consider the following –
2014 2015
K/9 10.3 11.1
BB/9 2.0 1.8
GB% 48.0 49.0
SwS% 12.0 14.6
In each of those key early indicators, Kluber has been even better than his Cy Young performance of last year. But then…
W/L ERA
2014 18-9 2.44
2015 1-5 3.79
Sometimes baseball just does that, which is why FIP is so much better than ERA – of the 97 pitchers with at least 40 innings so far, Kluber is #4 in the category. Yet Cleveland is 1-8 with a net -$939 over his nine starts. Part of that is the geometry of the sport making Kluber’s pitches less effective than they should be, but much also stems from the Indians only scoring 21 runs across those nine games.
In the Sights…
I like much of what I see from Gio Gonzalez so far. By mixing a sinker into his repertoire he has added a key weapon, and by working ahead in counts more often he can use that pitch for contact outs. It is fun being ahead in the count and inducing a hitter to beat the ball into the ground, instead of being behind and having to throw the ball past him. But while what would be his career best ground-ball rate has also led to a career-best FIP so far, a solid 2.75, there is nothing to set off fireworks to a marketplace that sees a yawn-inducing 3-2/4.25. Off of his 10-10/3.57 of 2014, what would there be to like? So time to get ahead of the curve and play #972 Washington First Half, and focus on the Gonzalez/Nathan Eovaldi aspects of the equation, and avoiding a talented Yankee bullpen that brings all arms in fresh.
It has been nearly three full years since the Yankees last faced Gonzalez (June 5 of 2012), and it may take time to read the new parts of his arsenal. And from this mound there will be a high level of confidence, with Gonzalez building out to a 21-11/2.80 at Nationals Park. That leaves the rest up to a sizzling Washington offense against Eovaldi, who the Nats have plenty of experience against from his time with the Marlins, and so far in May those bats have attacked at a .299/.361/.472 clip, leading the Major’s in each of those categories. The betting markets projected 27 runs to be scored in the Washington/San Diego series at Petco Park this past weekend; the Nationals plated 27 themselves.
The Pinnacle line is actually lower for the First Half than full game as I am typing this, something that you should not expect to see across the market spectrum. But it fits well in a game in which the early stages offer the better path. It is a case of the better team and better pitcher, with a home field advantage worth another penny or two because of the Gonzalez long-term bias, and the fact that the Yankees do not have much experience here – the last time they were on this field, Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Raul Ibanez, Andruw Jones and Chris Stewart were in the starting lineup. Sure, the Yankee end-game out of that bullpen has been superb. With this path it does not matter.
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