Point Blank – May 6
The Playoff Passages #18 – It was what’s up front that mattered in Atlanta (and Nene’s numbers were “Hilarious”); It was what’s in Mike Conley that sparked the Grizzlies…And What’s up Doc becomes a key Wednesday storyline…
The NBA playoffs have taken some fascinating directions over the last 48 hours, the Cavaliers struggling without Kevin Love, the Clippers rallying as Chris Paul watched, Washington not being able to sustain without John Wall on the court, and then Mike Conley’s return having a monstrous impact for Memphis. It creates a lot of ambiguity in the results, and also clouds the setting of the lines for the next encounters, which makes the post-mortems even more important now.
Atlanta 106 Washington 90
The big news came before this one began, with the Wizards making Wall inactive, and there was a rush by the markets to adjust. Atlanta had been played from -6 to -7 earlier in the day from what appeared to be mostly opinion money, and after the Wall announcement tipoff the Hawks were as high as -9.5 (figure about -1.5 of that being in-house, rather than $$$). While there were the usual ebbs and flows that are becoming common with Atlanta playoff games, including Washington rallying from an early deficit to tie the score at 73-all late in the third quarter, it was a firm control by the Hawks down the stretch, and that would seem to mesh with most thoughts of what the Wall absence was worth. But to leave it at that might be missing an emerging story through the first two games of this series – the Atlanta front-court is outplaying the Washington big men.
Ramon Sessions is not Wall, but he played a competent came at PG, with 21 points, four assists and only two turnovers over 39:37. He does not bring the ability to create that Wall does, the Wizard catalyst having had four straight games of double-figure assists before his wrist injury prevented playing time last night. But it was not the gap between Wall and Sessions that turned the outcome 22 points from Game #1; it was what’s up front that told the tale.
Atlanta got terrific all-around games from each of the starters in the front-court, with Paul Millsap, DeMarre Carroll and Al Horford combining for 58 points, 21 rebounds, 15 assists and eight steals. In Game #1, that trio generated 56, 32, 15 and three across the same categories. For the series the Hawks are +2 on the boards, and while that gap may not set off sparks, it is a surprise element considering that they were the #27 rebounding team in the NBA during the regular season, while the Wizards were #4.
If one group is playing well up front it naturally means that the other side has been a disappointment, and for Washington it really does come down to one player not carrying his weight. Just how bad has Nene Hilario been?
Minutes: 44:45
FG/FGA: 0-9
Points: 2
Rebounds: 7
Assists: 1
Turnovers: 7
Fouls: 5
+/- -17
He has been amazingly unproductive, looking at least five years older than what his birth certificate shows. He does get a long rest now, as do all others, before the series resumes on Saturday afternoon, with Wall expected to be healed by then. But it may not be the physical part of this series that dictates the next cycle – does that down time create more of an edge for Mike Budenholzer in the battle of wits with Randy Wittman? That will be a key part of the equation as the next handicap gets built.
Memphis 97 Golden State 90
My pre-tipoff read of this one could not have been much more wrong. There was an expectation that Mike Conley would be given the full rest until Saturday night in Memphis, and that even if he did play, the rust of having sat out for 10 days, and having only played three times in nearly a full month, would show against this class of competition. Meanwhile there was a belief that the Warriors would play near their “A” level, having shaken off some cobwebs on Sunday from an eight-day layoff, and with the ability to extend the starters deep because of so much downtime before game #3.
None of that came close to being correct, and it did not take long to see the errors. Watching the game was like filling out answers on an algebra exam, after having studied chemistry in the days leading up – as each question came up, there was the knowledge accruing that the final grade was not going to be good. Conley’s energy was fantastic early, a quick nine points as he made his first four FG attempts, and the entire Memphis team fed off of that. After Marc Gasol commented following that game #1 defeat that they were not physical enough, they got down and dirty this time, keeping the pace under control and playing one of the best defensive games of these playoffs so far.
Golden State was held to .92 PPP, after finishing #2 in the NBA during the regular season at 109.7 (just a tick below the 109.8 of the Clippers). It was sensational defense. The Grizzlies had 13 steals, forcing the Warriors into far more turnovers (20) than assists (16), and when they did get a shot off they connected at only a 41.9 percent rate, including 6-26 beyond the arc. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson were 3-17 from three-point range.
One of the themes for this series has been the foul trouble Draymond Green has gotten into, first struggling with Zach Randolph in the opener, and then having his difficulties with the officials last night. He had to take a seat just 3:09 into the game after being whistled for his second foul, despite the fact that he actually had not committed one yet. The frustrations of that led to a technical as well. It is a major story line because it really matters – Green was the best Golden State player in the round one win over New Orleans, and last night the Warriors were +2 in his 37:44, but lost the other 10:16 by -9. For the series it is +18 when he plays, and -10 when he sits, something to file away for those side In-Running notes that are accumulating.
Was this just a one-off, a night on which the emotion of Conley returning, and his positive play, sparked an upset? Expect the marketplace to bet game #3 that way; it seems as though the current crowd relishes favorites off of a loss. But there is a serious basketball issue here – when the Grizzlies can make it a slog, they are as good as anyone in the league at that kind of game. The confidence boost they got last night should not be discounted, as the building blocks for Saturday’s handicap begin to get stacked.
In the Sights…
The opening to today’s column used “ambiguity” with intent, because it can be in reading the kind of Rorschach blots being dealt out the last couple of days that can open the door for significant value moving forward. There may be just such a setting today, involving the #715 Clipper Team Total Under, although it will be a sit back and wait process for a while. I do not expect an announcement on Chris Paul’s status until late in the day, since Doc Rivers has no upside to tipping his hand towards Kevin McHale. But if Paul does not play, I am willing to challenge the Los Angeles offense to come up with anywhere near the level of efficiency that was produced on Monday night.
Yes, backing the Houston defense can be humbling, but there are 103.5’s out there this morning, which will not alter that much even if an official Paul out” gets declared. and there are a couple of things I believe can be counted on from the Rockets – first being a sense of pride, because there are some veterans that do want to win a ring. Second is that they do get a chance to prepare for an offensive group that they literally had no film study on. They will be better on the defensive end.
But now for the fun part with Rivers. If Paul is anywhere near 100 percent, does this possibly shift to a go-for-the-jugular setting, knowing that he has a chance to get his third series win on Friday night, a day before Golden State is even going for #2 at Memphis? There is an open door to potentially get this series over before the Warriors can clinch, meaning some needed rest. Or does that get taken in a different direction, with the Golden State loss on Monday bringing less urgency, and making it more important to rest Paul now? There are some intriguing elements going on in this round. For now, the LAC Under ticket is on the wish list, and I will update in this thread as the day goes on.
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