Point Blank – April 27
The Playoff Passages #9 (Games of 4/26) – The Cavs move on, but now a major question (cue Southside, for some soundtrack); A chip off the old block (for one day); The Raptors are extinct (deservedly); The perils of believing in the Rockets…
The list of NBA playoff participants shrank on Sunday, Toronto arguably leaving voluntarily, and now there are questions ahead for many of those still in play. There are several coaches waking up today trying to find those answers…
Cleveland 101 Boston 93
Not much to learn from what happened on the court, especially with the Celtics having so many draft picks stocked away, 14 over the next two years, including six in the first round (plus Philadelphia’s #2 this year, which is close to being another), that there will be a lot of reshaping of the roster. The questions now focus on Kevin Love’s status, and whether the Cavaliers may have to open the next series without J. R. Smith for at least Game #1.
What happens to the Cavaliers without Love? First, an excuse to start your Monday by another trip back in time, Southside Johnny and the Asbury Jukes to go with your coffee (and if you are not a Southside fan it is not too late to become one; terrific within the confines of a studio, peaking with Hearts of Stone, but so very memorable on a hot summer evening somewhere near the Jersey shore, the horns bringing an element to Rock and Roll that few have ever been able to incorporate…)
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OK, so now time to play David Blatt, because the betting markets do have to get inside his head a bit. The usual option would be Tristan Thompson for Love and Iman Shumpert for Smith if either was out, but is that the case when it may be both? That particular grouping makes the Cavaliers better defensively, but much easier to guard when they have the ball. Is it LeBron switching to the #4, and putting James Jones into a starter’s role at #3? Would Blatt dare to have LeBron guard Joakim Noah at times in the Chicago series, actually playing him as a #5 on defense, because it has such an intriguing aspect? And of course there will also be the matter of trying to fit Love back in, should they still be alive when he is ready to play again. Here is at least one thing that you can file away – James averaged 43:01 per-game in the Cleveland series, and now gets a little break. He is ready.
The fun part will be watching the markets go through these processes, having to post lines before Blatt may even know what his plan will be. It could mean some major opportunities, especially in terms of Totals (you know what it means when Kendrick Perkins is getting minutes).
LA Clippers 114 San Antonio 105
The Clippers sometimes win when their bench is terrible. They usually win when their bench is adequate. In the rare games in which their bench cast is actually good, they are going to be extremely difficult to beat, and that was the case on Sunday. In the shadows of Friday’s meltdown it was steadier play from Jamal Crawford (though he still went 0-3 beyond the arc), a stint of 19:14 from Glen Davis that was more effective than the box score can show, and the big shocker – Austin Rivers scoring 16 points over 17:06, knocking down 7-8 from the field. Add that to the expected high energy levels from Chris Paul (34 points and seven assists) and Blake Griffin (20 points, 19 rebounds, and a significant count of seven assists, the latter making him so difficult to double-team), and the series is squared, two heavyweights ready to keep beating on each other while contenders like the Warriors and Cavaliers are already off of the First Round clock.
The Spurs failed continue their momentum from Friday largely because that was a disjointed win that did not necessarily bring an overall flow, and left them with the one major question they have had through this series – can they score against a set Clipper defense in the 4th Quarter. They struggled in the opener, melted down badly to almost see Game #2 slip away, and yesterday they had one assist over the final 7:30 of play (in Game #2, it was one assist over the final 9:30).
There has been a lot of talk in this column through the series about the impact of Tony Parker, and that may be the biggest issue as the teams head back to Los Angeles. Parker has displayed some occasional burst to be able to finish at the basket, but what he is not showing is an ability to beat Paul off the dribble enough to create offense for others. He only had one assist over 28:44 yesterday, and in what has to be considered a statement from Pops, Parker did not leave the bench over the final 6:22, those minutes going to Patty Mills. It is not just an issue of the Spurs getting into their offensive flow, but also a matter of defense; Parker is a difficult fit against Paul at crunch time, and Popovich acknowledged that none of the others were either in Game #4 - “No matter who we had on him. Kawhi (Leonard) and Danny (Green) didn’t do a very good job playing him the way he needs to be played. He had the better of them throughout the whole evening for sure.”
Now it is adjustment time for Popovich, who has to find a balance between getting his team into an offensive flow, and also being able to disrupt Paul’s rhythm at the other end. At least he may not have to worry about Rivers being so effective off the bench again, although there may be a genuine hint of a matchup issue to that (he used a size advantage of Mills to be able to get near the basket for many of his points). Usually Pops is at his best when it comes to probing weaknesses in an opponent; this time his task is to get his own rotation fine-tuned.
Washington 125 Toronto 94
With their playoff lives on the line, the Raptors allowed 66 points in the first half, coming up with one steal and no blocked shots. They deserve to go away.
As for the victorious Wizards, it was the third straight double-double from John Wall (14 points and 10 assists), despite the fact that he only played 25:22, and their energy and chemistry got better throughout the series. But now the downside – in earlier columns there was some speculation about the value they could bring in a matchup vs. Atlanta, but how much of that has now been ruined by them playing a little too well? And will it even necessarily be the Hawks in round two? More on that in a moment…
Dallas 121 Houston 109
I chose to stay with the Rockets after cashing a ticket with them on this floor in Game #3, and got what I deserved. Just when you want to trust Dwight Howard, Jason Terry, Josh Smith and some erratic egos to focus in on team basketball, they remind you why you just can’t.
Howard’s energy was brilliant in Game #3, then somewhat tragic last night. He only managed seven rebounds, one assist and two blocked shots over 35:47, a stretch in which Houston was a dismal -23 (compare that to the +11 over 12:13 when he was not on the floor). When Howard is not being a catalyst on defense the scheme can come apart, and it did – the Mavericks scored at a 1.18 PPP clip, knocking down 54.3 percent of their shots, despite using a starting lineup that was together for the first time all season.
Was it the surprise of Al-Farouq Aminu and J. J. Barea starting that took the Rockets out of their game? Not really – it was 37-25 Houston early in the 2nd Quarter. But the defense badly broke down leading up to halftime, and then a little before intermission an offensive stretch for the ages began – James Harden nailed a triple at 1:54, and the next Houston FG would not come until 3:57 remained in the 3rd Quarter, when they were down by 22. They missed 17 consecutive shots through that stretch, which is not easy to do vs. this class of defense (as an indictment of the Mavericks on that end, to have a team score 109 on a night in which they missed 16 straight is rather disturbing).
Game #5 now provides a tricky test for the markets, who can not use Sunday’s closer of the Rockets -2.5 as much of a baseline. For as good as the Dallas energy was, Aminu, Barea, Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowtizki all played more minutes than any Houston starter. The hustle that they used to win the boards 52-38 may be difficult to maintain, which may mean time to consider putting trust behind the Rockets again. That is not a fun process.
In the Sights…
If you have been reading along each day, it should come as no shock that #510 Brooklyn gets the call tonight, especially with +4.5 having shown (give the markets some time, and +5 may not be out of the question). Yes, someone can play around with past trends concerning how favorites that lose bounce back at playoff time, especially when there is the appearance of a gap when a #1 vs. a #8 seed is the matchup. But that seeding just does not carry much significance this time – after falling down by a dozen at the end of the 1st Quarter of the opener, Brooklyn has won the last 11 periods by a 254-246 count, and that is with seven of the 11 having been on the road.
Atlanta is not more talented or deeper, nor do the Hawks have any kind of edge in playoff experience over the likes of Deron Williams and Joe Johnson. And what is truly fascinating is that this series has been as competitive as it has despite that veteran duo shooting just 24-76, including 8-31 beyond the arc. Now that the Nets can square the count tonight look for a spring to return to their steps; they have been around long enough to know that they can genuinely win this series. As for the Hawks having any kind of bounce-back swagger, keep in mind that they have not won a playoff series since April of 2011, and in that Game #7 win over Orlando in the first round, the only current roster player that saw action was Al Horford. This coach, and these players, do not have a legacy yet.
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