Point Blank – April 25
The Playoff Passages #7 (Games of 4/24) – Are the Rockets becoming interesting (more on those Dwight Howard numbers); John Wall steps up (again); Who needs Duncan, Parker or Ginobli...In the Sights – Winning need not be pretty
Friday was an evening of fascination as potential plot twists emerge for these playoffs. If John Wall continues to play at a high level, does Washington/Atlanta become an awkward read for the markets? Is it time to begin taking the Rockets seriously? And if Duncan/Parker/Ginobli score 12 points in 73:40, and the Spurs still win by 27, it tells us much about Kawhil Leonard, and also how awful the other side was.
Houston 130 Dallas 128
A big part of putting Houston “In the Sights…” yesterday was an anti-Dallas focus. The Mavericks are an old team that just does not fit terribly well, not only dealing through those Rajon Rondo distractions, but losing a cog in Chandler Parsons that they really need in order to win playoff games. And perhaps as proof, they went out and played about as well as they could, with veterans Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis competing as the pros they are to score 34 points apiece, yet it still was not enough to win. So the final chapter to their season will be written soon, likely on Sunday. But for some fun with numbers, how about this for a footnote:
Minutes +/-
Rondo in 37:13 -35
Rondo out 106:47 +11
But enough about the Mavericks, the question now becomes whether or not to begin considering the Rockets as being more viable than I had thought entering the playoffs. There were questions of their consistency and overall floor game, especially having to re-adjust to having Dwight Howard back in the rotation. But Howard is now at Per-48 counts of 28.1 points, 23.3 rebounds and 4.9 blocked shots in this series, and the Rockets are +50 over his 88:44 of court time. Having evaded so many minutes due to injury, he is fresher for this time of the season than almost all of his previous playoff appearances. It is showing.
After James Harden struggled in the first two games of this series he finally found his grove, with 42 points and nine assists, and it is that one-two punch of a pair of all-NBA talents in the same starting lineup that makes the Rockets intriguing, as long as the roles are defined and accepted. Right now they are, and make sure you note that Josh Smith also dished four assists last night, putting aside some of his usual selfishness in an attempt to win a ring. A level of basketball sophistication is still lacking from this bunch, and Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas are being missed, but they can still be a matchup headache in the next round.
Washington 106 Toronto 99
When John Wall has back-to-back games of 26 points and 17 assists, and 19 points and 15, it does not come as a huge shock, because he really does have that kind of talent. It is in doing it night-in and night-out that there have been questions, some of it stemming from the way his focus can drift, and also some from Randy Wittman not being able to consistently make the puzzle pieces of this roster fit. But Wall’s ability to get near that upper tier of NBA point guards is already creating some fascination with a potential matchup vs. Atlanta (the Wizards have played better basketball than the Hawks over the past week, and just imagine the price that will be available), especially because there is a new piece to this puzzle that brings an old school element previously lacking – Paul Pierce.
It was the veteran Pierce that hit two key triples when the Raptors were threatening late that not only put that game into the win column, and essentially the series as well, but also helps to set a different tone for this locker room. Consider the post-game tributes from the other side as a way to measure it. First, from Dwane Casey – “You’re not playing against chopped liver. Paul Pierce won a championship. He knows how to play.” And from DeMar DeRozan, who scored 20 points in the 1st Quarter to try to bring his team to life – “He (Pierce) is still who he is.”
So Wall can be an “A” level performer. Pierce brings veteran savvy and poise. Bradley Beal can score from the #2 slot. Otto Porter is becoming a bigger part of the rotation. Marcin Gortat (24 points and 13 rebounds last night) and Nene compete around the rim. Drew Gooden and Ramon Sessions bring depth. The Wizards were #5 in defensive efficiency and #4 in rebound rate this season, and particularly consider the latter category, given Atlanta only checking in at #27.
Yes, we are getting ahead of ourselves here. But the Raptors do not bring the talent or moxie to turn this back into a series.
San Antonio 100 LA Clippers 73
There was an opportunity missed here in the pre-game read, perhaps not appreciating just how much the two teams had battered each other in that Wednesday night OT battle. If the key cogs were going to be worn down, it put the onus on the supporting casts to get it done, and the Spurs have a major edge in that area.
Consider this flow. Tim Duncan goes from 28/11 to 4/4. Manu Ginobli only took two shots over 16:59. All of those eyes focused on Tony Parker’s health had to wince a bit as he shot 3-11 over 25:42, and was as much of a decoy as a catalyst. But when the Spurs needed a boost on offense it became Kawhi Leonard’s night. Seemingly impervious to fatigue at this stage of his career, he stepped up with a ridiculously efficient 32 points, needing just 28:30 of court time, and only 18 FG attempts and three FTs, to accumulate them. In the 3rd Quarter, Leonard out-scored the Clippers 13-11. Let that sink in for a moment. The Spurs moved the ball well, with 22 of their 25 assists coming from positions other than PG, and their defense was superb – nine steals and eight blocked shots, while allowing just 34.1 percent from the field. Of course, the shooting percentage was aided by the guys taking many of the shots…
Los Angeles is an energy team, feeding off of how hard Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and the others compete (Matt Barnes plays hard more nights than he plays well). Paul played about as bad of a game as we will see from him, and while Griffin was not terrible, he did not have much impact. It was the bench that was terrible. That group combined for 11-41, and you can already guess that any time the Clipper reserves are taking nearly have of the teams FG attempts, it will be a lost evening. While much of that cast simply can’t play, the alarming issue for Doc Rivers has to be Jamal Crawford, who is a combined 5-24 over the last two games. From late in the 3rd Quarter of Game #2, until early in the 4th last night, he went 0-11.
Now to Sunday, where there is another short turnaround heading into an afternoon affair, and despite the fact that last night’s game was a foregone conclusion shortly after halftime, Rivers still had Paul, Griffin and J. J. Redick on the court longer than any San Antonio players. They will need to recapture their fire to even the series, and there also remain questions about how effective Parker can be. Last night there simply was not much needed from him, which is likely to change.
About Last Night…
I would be remiss to not send out condolences to anyone that had Houston/Oakland Under, a solid handicap of the Keuchel/Kazmir hook-up. When folks ask why it is not easier to build profits betting sports, all you have to do is refer them to the fact that you can bet an MLB game Under, have it be scoreless after the regulation nine innings, and still lose.
In the Sights…
I am envisioning a very sluggish opening to the Chicago/Milwaukee Game #4 today, but the markets seem to disagree, with the Total sitting higher than it was for Thursday night. So time to put #748 First Half Under into the pockets, with 95.5 common, and the potential for a 96 to show.
The Thursday minutes were already telling a story, on Thursday. Both teams were gassed at the end of regulation, leading to that fingernails-on-chalkboard first OT session in which there were only 12 points scored, and neither team got a shot off within 15 feet of the basket over the final 2:30. Now they are caught in a transition from a night game that extended late, into today’s afternoon tipoff, which will exacerbate matters after seven players went 40 minutes or more in Game #3, four topping the regulation 48, and two getting into the 50’s.
One player that particularly bears watching is Derrick Rose. His 48:13 was the high since May of 2011, and his previous high for this season was 42:55. Only once since returning on April 8 had he even gone past 30 minutes. Meanwhile on the other side the Bucks still know that their best way to compete is to make this a grinder if possible, and that will help to set a sluggish early tone. I will make that the focus, instead of the full game, taking away any potential late scrambling that is always a risk when the Side is in this pointspread range. This may not be pretty basketball to watch, but profiting from ugliness pays the same.
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