YTD +1.80 Units
Gold Coast Titans v Penrith Panthers
Cbus Super Stadium
Saturday, 1am EST
If a week is a long time in rugby league it must feel like an eternity since Round 2 for two teams with vastly different-looking rosters for Saturday's Round 7 clash at Cbus Super Stadium.
When the Titans travelled to Bathurst to play Penrith five weeks ago they did so without the services of Greg Bird, Dave Taylor and Beau Falloon who were under a club-imposed suspension while the injury toll for the Panthers has continued to climb with each week that has passed.
Robert Jennings is the latest Panther to be handed an NRL debut and will partner Waqa Blake in the centres following the season-ending ACL injury to Jamal Idris.
Apisai Koroisau and Isaac John will again fill the positions in the halves vacated by Jamie Soward and Peter Wallace but Elijah Taylor has been named in the forward pack despite suffering a knee injury against Manly last Saturday.
Despite the disruptions to their 17 the Panthers have continued winning to maintain a position in the top eight and boast a highly skilful outfit across the park not reliant on a sole creative hand.
Much of the creativity for the Titans in recent weeks has been courtesy of a couple of former Panthers with James Roberts catapulting himself to the top of the NRL try-scoring tally with seven tries and hooker Kierran Moseley's first grade education progressing quickly.
The Titans have won just one game at home since their Round 6 defeat of the Broncos last year but after breaking the shackles and scoring 38 points against the Eels last week have no better chance to finally give the locals something to cheer about.
Watch Out Titans: They may be without both their first-choice halfback and five-eighth but the key to Penrith's creativity lies with their precociously talented fullback, Matt Moylan. Through six rounds Moylan leads the NRL in both try assists and line-break assists and when his team needed greater input last week he obliged in style, laying on two tries, two line-break assists, making a line break of his own, running for 151 metres and kicking three goals from four attempts. While ever Moylan is playing, the Panthers remain a dangerous outfit.
Watch Out Panthers: It's hardly a state secret but if the Panthers inexperienced halves are thinking about throwing cut-out passes to the left side of the field they might need to reconsider if James Roberts is anywhere in the vicinity. Roberts has used his blistering speed to sprint to the front of the NRL try-scoring tally but he has done so on the back of three intercept tries, two of which came last week against the Eels. If ever a strength could turn into a weakness, expect Panthers coach Ivan Cleary to try to lure the speedster out of the defensive line with a carefully constructed set move that will deliver six points for one team, or the other.
Key Match-up: The respective benches. There is an argument to be made that the Titans have a more settled starting 13 than the Panthers this week but it is the four on the bench where the mountain men may boast something of an edge. Tyrone Peachey is one of the purest footballers in the competition, Sam McKendry is a former Kiwi prop getting back to his best, Reagan Campbell-Gillard could be the biggest 21-year-old in the NRL and Isaah Yeo is a rangy type capable of causing havoc on the edges. Titans coach Neil Henry has named a five-man bench and he'll need to get the make-up just right to match what the Panthers are set to bring from the pine.
History: Played 12; Titans 4; Panthers 8.
The Panthers made it four on the trot against the Titans with their Round 2 40-0 shellacking in Bathurst, the third time in their past four meetings that they had scored at least 36 points. In nine of the 12 matches between these teams the total match points has totalled at least 40 points.
Did You Know: Four Panthers have scored hat-tricks against the Titans, three of whom have spent time at the Gold Coast club. In 2010 current Cowboys fullback Lachlan Coote scored a treble in a losing Panthers team, in Round 25, 2012 injured Titans centre Brad Tighe scored three tries in a 36-24 win for the Panthers and then in Round 17, 2013 the scintillating James Roberts tore the Titans to shreds in a 40-18 win for the mountain men. Former Titan Jamal Idris came back to haunt Gold Coast in Round 2 this year, scoring a hat-trick in the Panthers' big win.
What Are The Odds: Titans $1.93 v Panthers $1.87.
The Titans have been well supported at home and are as popular dollar-wise as the Panthers. There's more money on Gold Coast to win 13-plus than all of Sportsbet's other margin options combined.
Match Officials: Referee: Jared Maxwell. Assistant Referee: Chris James. Touch Judges: Adam Reid and Kasey Badger. Video Referees: Steve Clark and Luke Patten.
The Way We See It: A patched-up Panthers were brave in knocking over Manly last week but valour only takes you so far in the NRL. They are decimated by injuries to key players and have what must be the youngest three-quarter line in the competition. Buoyed by a big win over the Eels, the Titans have shown that there was substance to narrow losses early in the season and should play with greater freedom on Saturday. Their recent home record is horrendous but something they are due to overcome. Titans by 10 points.
Sleepy's Official Play - Titans (-125)
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North Queensland Cowboys v New Zealand Warriors
1300SMILES Stadium
Saturday 3:30am EST
The transformation is complete. It has taken the Cowboys just three games to go from the league's doldrums to a dominant 30-12 victory over the reigning premiers. While North Queensland isn't yet in the top eight they are playing the league's best football and will look to keep it rolling this Saturday in Johnathan Thurston's 250th NRL game.
The Warriors, also at a 3-3 win/loss record, are yet to find their best footy amidst a few injury concerns, and are managing a change-up in the roles between halves Shaun Johnson and Chad Townsend – who is now dominating the kicking game.
Both coaches Paul Green and Andrew McFadden have picked unchanged sides after last start wins, with Raymond Faitala-Mariner named as 18th man for New Zealand.
Watch Out Cowboys: Ben Hannant said it best last week in the NRL.com Player Poll. The "short stocky types" like Konrad Hurrell are an absolute nightmare to bring down. Well bad news, Cowboys, the Warriors production line has cranked out another in centre Solomone Kata. Kata fears no-one. He showed at the weekend just why he can be one of the league's most dominant outside backs with a 155-metre performance against Wests Tigers. At 97 kilograms his brute strength and pace off the mark cannot be matched by any Cowboy, so look out if he gets clean ball on the outside.
Watch Out Warriors: The Cowboys have kicked their attacking game into gear on the back of two straight 30-point performances against two of the better defensive sides in the competition in Penrith and South Sydney. Thurston is making all of the headlines but as good as the multiple Dally M winner is, he admits that his affect is minimal without the strength of his forwards, namely Matt Scott and Jason Taumalolo. The two have been wreaking havoc up the middle over the past three weeks; Scott has averaged 178 metres while Taumalolo has now claimed a place in the league's 'elite' bracket with an average of 211 metres over that time.
Key Match-Up: Johnathan Thurston v Shaun Johnson. Thurston looks in career-best touch over the past three weeks and is primed to snatch back the Golden Boot award that Johnson took from him in December last year. Thurston is second in the league behind Matt Moylan for try and line-break assists. The Kiwi halfback, on the other hand, is not having the same success as in 2014, with almost 10 less run metres per game despite taking the line on more than last season. He is also missing 3.2 tackles per game compared with 2.6 last season, and has only registered one try assist in 2015.
The History: Played 33; Cowboys 15, Warriors 18. Over the past decade the home team has won every game, with the exceptions being a NZ win at Townsville in Round 3 last year and a Cowboys win at Auckland in 2009. The Warriors have won four of the last five games between the two.
What Are The Odds: Cowboys ($1.36) v Warriors ($3.15). Before the Cowboys knocked off the Bunnies, 75 per cent of the money was with the Warriors in this one, but since Monday night, Sportsbet has reported a steady stream of support for the Cowboys.
Match Officials: Referee: Gerard Sutton. Assistant Referee: Grant Atkins. Touch Judges: Michael Wise and David Ryan. Video Referees: Shayne Hayne and Ben Galea
The Way We See it: The Cowboys come back home to Townsville in red-hot form and have the added motivation of avenging the loss of Round 3 last season. New Zealand's best chance is through early scoreboard pressure, as the Cowboys have been taking the best part of the first half to really kick into gear. But when they do, it has been near impossible to stop of late. Cowboys by 12.
Sleepy's Official Play - Warriors +8.5
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Melbourne Storm v Sydney Roosters
AAMI Park
Saturday 5:30am EST
There will be State of Origin and International stars a-plenty when these two teams take to AAMI Park on Saturday night and the match-ups across the board make for a mouth-watering clash.
Roosters co-captain Jack Friend makes a timely return to the starting side against Melbourne captain Cameron Smith, Michael Jennings faces the in-form Will Chambers while potential fireworks loom between Jesse Bromwich and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves.
The Tricolours came and conquered to the tune of 20 points in Round 13 last season with Billy Slater again sidelined along with Cooper Cronk on that occasion.
Melbourne are chasing three straight wins, the Roosters are desperate to avoid three straight defeats making this contest all the more intriguing.
A dominant 15-minute second half display was all it took for Melbourne to hang on for a 14-10 win over the Raiders last week.
The Roosters on the other hand had four chances to beat the Broncos before a Ben Hunt try handed them a golden point defeat.
Trent Robinson has shuffled the cards at the selection table with Dylan Napa replacing the suspended Sam Moa, Sio Siua Taukeiaho starting at lock over Isaac Liu and Lagi Setu coming onto the bench.
It is another unchanged 1-17 for the Storm however their extended 22-man squad suggests that there are some sore bodies.
Watch Out Storm: Question marks surround the conditioning of the Storm team ahead of Saturday night. As good as they have been over the past fortnight, two consecutive six-day turnarounds could finally catch up with them. You add to this the fact Sydney has had an extra two days recovery and fitness could be a deciding factor if the contest remains tight heading into the second half.
Watch Out Roosters: The Roosters have had some big issues holding onto the football this season. They have committed 10 or more errors in all except one of their games, resulting in an average completion rate of just 71%, they rank a lowly 15th in the NRL for completed sets. James Maloney and Michael Jennings have had the case of the fumbles this season with six handling errors apiece, ranking them equal second in the competition. The visitors can ill afford to hand Melbourne possession, especially on their home paddock and with plenty of offensive weapons at their disposal.
Key Match-Up: Jesse Bromwich v Jared Waerea-Hargreaves. This heavyweight bout between the Kiwi internationals will be a fascinating one to watch. Bromwich is now an establish star of the competition whose prowess was on full display in a man of the match performance against the Raiders that included a game-high 259 metres, 33 tackles and three offloads. The hard-working prop currently ranks in the top five of the Telstra Premiership for hit-ups, total metres and decoy runs. However on Saturday night he better expect some in-your-face confrontation from Waerea-Hargreaves. The fiery Rooster is not afraid to walk the line, currently the equal third most penalised player in the competition and was certainly up for the physical contest last week against Sam Thaiday. With Sydney having the better of the Melbourne forward pack in both meetings last season, Hargreaves job in trying to halt Bromwich will be crucial and one that could well decide the outcome of Saturday night.
The History: Played 27; Storm 14, Roosters 13. Melbourne are just ahead of the ledger although Sydney have won the past two games by double-digit margins. History says the opening 40 minutes will be hugely important as the team leading at halftime has gone on to win the game in 16 of the past 17 meetings.
What Are The Odds: Storm $1.97 v Roosters $1.83.
Sportsbet punters believe the Roosters are due for a win, with more than three times the amount wagered on them in head to head betting against the Storm. Incredibly, Roosters 13+ is the most popular in margin betting.
Match Officials: Referee: Ashley Klein. Assistant Referee: Alan Shortall. Touch Judges: Jess Younis and Ricky McFarlane. Video Referees: Bernard Sutton and Steve Folkes.
The Way We See It: Melbourne have played great football in recent weeks but this will be their third game in 13 days against a Roosters outfit who rarely lose three on the trot. Roosters by 6 points.
Sleepy's Official Play - Roosters - 2
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**Writeup taken from NRL.com