Point Blank – March 30
The Tourney Journey #12 – The clock strikes midnight on the Louisville shooting…They don't play football in gyms…Jhalil Okafor should become a Sophomore...Atlanta’s last game didn’t actually happen…
Sunday’s Elite Eight was certainly not Saturday’s, from the standpoint of basketball beauty – the ballet of the previous evening turned into a street rumble in Syracuse, and yet another disjointed offensive affair at the ridiculous venue in Houston. And the question about the latter is simply - Why? They listed the Gonzaga/Duke attendance at 20,744, and there are plenty of genuine basketball arenas where they could have drawn just as many, while giving the fans, coaches and players a far superior experience. The two teams certainly deserved better.
So now on to Indianapolis, and yet another football stadium, although they will fill it out with more people and create better sight lines for the shooters than the dreary weekend in Houston. There is some familiarity for three of the coaches – Mike Krzyzewski was here for the Final Four in 2010 and the Midwest Regional in 2013 (beating Tom Izzo and Michigan State 71-61); Izzo was here for regionals in 2009 and 2013; and John Calipari was here with Kentucky in LY’s regionals. As for players, Branden Dawson started one game for Michigan State, with Denzel Valentine and Matt Costello playing once as reserves; Quinn Cook had two starts for Duke; the Harrison twins each have two starts for Kentucky, as does Dakari Johnson, while Willie Cauley-Stein played a few minutes as a reserve before being injured vs. Louisville in the round of the Sweet 16 LY, Marcus Lee played twice as a reserve, and Dominique Hawkins also played twice, although he is not a part of the current rotation. That experience can matter.
But before looking ahead it is time to go back through the Sunday results, with a particular focus on takeaways from those games that will be a meaningful part of the Final Four handicaps…
At Syracuse
MICHIGAN STATE 76 LOUISVILLE 70 – I did not expect much from the Cardinals in this tournament, yet they were a Mangok Mathiang FT away from heading to the Final Four. Not that he should have necessarily been expected to make both ends under that pressure (or at any other time, for that matter). It was fascinating to watch them advance, and in some ways may have been one of Rick Pitino’s best coaching jobs, though it had little to do with X’s and O’s, because his thin roster lacked flexibility. Instead it was about simply getting them to play confidently and give their all. That was discussed in THE TOURNEY JOURNEY #10 (link at the bottom of the page), as a limited bunch played just about every possession as though they honestly expected to win the game. But this time there was not enough depth, and in the final counting the Michigan State bench produced 26 points, seven rebounds and seven assists, to just six, four and zero for the Cardinals.
There was one other element that had kept Louisville alive – a bad offensive team made shots vs. Northern Iowa and N. C. State. And the Cardinals made them in the first half on Sunday as well, leading 40-32 into the locker room on a sharp 17-32. They were to take 32 more the rest of the way, making only six. The clock struck midnight, and the offense turned into a pumpkin, with Terry Rozier the only one to make a FG over the first 16:20 of the second half. But they matched the Spartans rebound-for-rebound, while having three fewer turnovers, and that was just enough to be alive into overtime.
For Michigan State it was a similar flow to Friday’s win over Oklahoma – for whatever reason the Spartans did not come out swinging once again, but as the game went on got a little tougher around the basket, especially on defense. After allowing 24 points in the paint in the first half, it was only eight the rest of the way. But that same paint presence did not happen on offense – it was the perimeter where most of the damage was done, with Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine and Bryn Forbes scoring 46 of the 76 points. Forbes was 4-6 from 3-point range, and did not turn the ball over, in a clutch performance off the bench.
It was good Spartan basketball, not great, which will raise a significant question for Saturday. Is it a case of them not reaching their peak yet, with the confidence from this past weekend now taking them to a higher level, or is this simply as well as this bunch can play? And there is an absolute Eye Test issue that will cause significant thought – while posting 20 assists vs. 12 turnovers looks solid in the box score, there were some sloppy passes that became turnovers, leading to easy Louisville transition baskets. This is still a team playing without a true full-time PG, and that will be an issue against the ball pressure that Duke brings. Which may well have been the key factor in Houston yesterday…
At Houston
DUKE 66 GONZAGA 52 – I am going to start with a little copy and paste here, from TJ#10 on Saturday morning, because it does bring that key element mentioned above into play for this week – “Now the matchup changes for Mark Few’s team – instead of having their way on the perimeter in the low-stress tourney ride so far, it will be Duke’s ball pressure on Sunday. That is a significant shifting of the gears, especially since pressure on the defensive perimeter is something that the Bulldogs rarely saw in the WCC as well. As such, that becomes a key starting point for the handicap vs. Duke.”
Kevin Pangos is a toughened veteran floor leader, the prototype PG for Gonzaga. Back-court mate Gary Bell has been side-by-side with him for a long time. But as noted, that duo lacked familiarity this season with the kind of ball pressure Duke exerts. Yesterday those two had more than twice as many turnovers as assists, and shot 4-14 from the field. Pangos played the entire 40 minutes and did not have a single assist, a stunning plot twist for a guy that was making his 141st career start, and was #2 in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio this season. The Bulldogs had their moments, including taking a four-point lead early in the second half, but they just could not get into their offensive flow. It was two turnovers without an assist over the final 10:30, and they did not make a FG after a Pangos layup at 6:40.
Some of that, of course, was due to the absurd venue – the Bulldogs were #2 in the nation in 3-point percentage this season, but were only 5-29 in their Houston weekend (all 3-point shots in the three games through that bracket were just 23-86). Still there was also the quickness and athleticism of the Duke defense, which guards the perimeter so very well, even if Jhalil Okafor is still learning his way around the basket. Which makes an ideal time to segue to his weekend.
As faithful readers will have noted by now, the limitations at this stage of his development are genuine – no real offensive game beyond 10 feet, an awful touch at the FT line, and defense that is still a work in progress. It was noted in Saturday’s column that he did not play the final 12 possessions vs. Utah, a statement from Coach K, and he was not much of a game factor at all vs. Gonzaga – just nine points on 4-10 shooting, with another dismal 1-3 at the FT line. Yet it was not that long ago that there were discussions of NBA teams tanking to have a better chance to pick him up in the draft. Perhaps he should end up being the #1 overall pick, but not until June of 2016.
Here is where the plot may twist this week. Okafor disappeared vs. the physical defensive presence that Utah and Gonzaga both brought in the paint, which will have a lot of others noticing those limitations, now that more folks are paying fuller attention. But just when many will be ready to Zag in their ratings of him, this week could be time to Zig – Okafor actually matches up well against the Michigan State front-court. He can take any of the individual Spartans defenders one-on-one down low. There could be some prop opportunities later in the week worth exploring, if he is being sold short.
Meanwhile that dynamic Blue Devil back-court of Tyus Jones & Quinn Cook will be more than happy to get the hell out of Houston. They made only 2-11 from 3-point range across the two wins, and combined for 7-23 on all Sunday shots, but to their credit did not let that impact the rest of their floor game – they each played the full 40 minutes without a turnover, and as a team the Blue Devils only gave it up twice (I do not count the intentional late shot-clock violation, even though it goes into the official register). The big shots came from Justise Winslow, their best player in the regional, and Matt Jones, while the bench produced next to nothing – one shot attempt (from Grayson Allen, which missed), and five rebounds. That calls for some deliberation as you build your handicap for Saturday – fatigue is not going to be a factor, but Izzo has so many more tactical options, especially if foul trouble becomes an issue.
In The Sights…
The Atlanta defense was a prime topic in a couple of columns last week, and was put into play conceptually with an Under ticket here vs. Miami on Friday. Now it is time for more of the same, #738 Under on this board, as that focus returns again.
The 115-100 loss the Hawks suffered at Charlotte on Saturday can not help but get included in the official statistics, but it carries no weight – Mike Budenholzer sat the entire starting lineup. That means all hands are fresh for this one, except for PG Jeff Teague, and having Teague sidelined does not hurt our purposes at all. With an immediate trip to Detroit afterwards to play on Tuesday creating another likely setting for key cogs to rest, this one is all about being sharp and focused, and setting the defensive tone that is going to matter come playoff time. The Bucks do not have the offensive chemistry to break through that, but will guard on their own, which is where Jason Kidd also knows his team has to hang their hat if they want to compete to get beyond the first round.
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