Point Blank – March 24
On the “Court” Jester, and the Hawks…George Karl is helping Rudy Gay to “Melo Out”…A packet of sugar, for Friday…
Yes, the opening of the NCAA tournament captured the overwhelming amount of the attention over the weekend, but there is a lot of money to be made through that cycle, a period at which the Eye Test is more useful than perhaps any other. But there is plenty going on among other fronts, and as the music to the Dance takes a break, let’s to go it…
Item: The schedule dealt the Hawks a stack of Jokers
The Hawks were going to cool off, sooner or later. What they have done is still based more on very good basketball than very good basketball players, and it is difficult when the latter has to keep up the former. The season is long, and over time the opposition also gets many more looks at the playbook. Since the top seed in the Eastern Conference is assured, and the Warriors will not be caught for the overall #1, there is also a lack of immediate incentive, outside of staying fresh and healthy. So as discussed here a few times already, Mike Budenholzer has been giving some of his key cogs time off, while also being forced to do that for Kyle Korver a bit longer with that broken nose.
But something else has also happened – a combination of the above factors, and some ridiculous scheduling, may have seriously thrown their rhythm into a spin. It was not disastrous to lose at Philadelphia with a short-handed lineup. There can also be some excusing double-digit losses to the Raptors and Nuggets post-break a bit. But now it is a three-game losing streak in which the Hawks have been beaten by a combined 46 points, and that does matter. The schedule has taken a toll.
Sunday’s 114-95 loss at home to San Antonio marked the ninth straight court change, having played a game in all four time zones, and not once through the stretch did they have more than a single day off between games. Today marks the first time since March 5 they have had such a setting. Then guess what – six more court changes in a row, and after back-to-back home games vs. Brooklyn and Phoenix in early April, it will be five more to close out the campaign. All told, there will be court changes for 21 of the final 22 Atlanta games.
The notion of “court changes” should be a part of your handicapping process. Every change requires a plane ride, usually with buses to and from the airports wrapped around, and the requisite packing and unpacking, and checking in and checking out of hotel rooms. From March 6 through the end of the month there will be 14 plane rides in 25 days.
That is grueling. It is also rather absurd. How the NBA allowed that to happen is mind-numbing, but the task here is to deal with it, which means watching the way that Budenholzer and his team attempt to cope. It started yesterday with an extended film session, something they have not had time to do for weeks. And after allowing 117 ppg, at a frightening 120.0 PP100 over the last three games, it is going to have to start with defense. Some of that absolutely goes to a point made above, about a team being figured out a bit.
Take this, from DeMare Carroll, to heart, following that film session – “It was collectively a good talk. We are going to need different defensive coverages going into the playoffs. You can’t stick with one. We’ve been sticking to one ever since the All Star break has been over. Now we want to throw out a couple of different schemes. It will be good for us.”
Why haven’t those changes come earlier? The schedule simply did not allow for it. Going forward, there is also not much of that time ahead. For now, put Atlanta squarely under a microscope; this may not be an easy fix right now.
Item: It is already next season in Sacramento
OK, so if you have been following the Big Dance as intensely as I have, you are likely to have a small shock when you see tonight’s NBA board, and see Sacramento out there at -8 (there are already hints of -8.5). Yes, the 76ers are the opposition, but they are playing decent ball right now, a 4-6 SU over the L10 in which two of the defeats came in OT, and it has been a 7-3 ATS in regulation through that stretch. So even respecting that a bit, the oddsmakers have still posted this one high, enough for me to be disappointed, but not enough to neglect noting a key experiment George Karl is trying with the Kings, one that may already be energizing them to make some good things happen the rest of this season, while building needed momentum for the process ahead.
Rudy Gay has played at the #4 the last two games, for the first time in his career. In the last game he played #4 next to DeMarcus Cousins at #5 for the first time in their time as teammates. And the Kings won and covered those two games by 40.5 points above the market expectations. That is worth looking at more closely.
It was a 101-91 win over Charlotte on Friday, in a game in which they never trailed, with Gay exploding for 33 points in 37:05, while also grabbing nine rebounds, dishing three assists. On Sunday it was a decisive 109-86 thumping over a Washington team playing with need, and Gay was at it again – 26 points, five rebounds and two assists over 32:07. Cousins was limited to 22:49 because of foul trouble, but still managed 22 points, seven rebound and a significant five assists. All of a sudden, this has become a difficult team to guard, and an interesting one to follow.
If you think you have seen this movie before, perhaps you have. What Karl has done with Gay is also what he did so successfully with Carmelo Anthony in Denver, once upon a time. From Karl – “I think Rudy’s like Melo for me. Rudy, if you’re covered by a big guy, go outside. If you’re covered by a little guy, go inside. … The spacing is one thing I feel pretty good about that’s going on out there. The ball seems to be freer, both with attacking the dribble and with Cuz (Cousins) on postups. It seems like we get some good angles, good situations. I think Rudy’s confident against the bigger player rather than the quicker player.”
Keep in mind that when the season started this team showed promise – they opened 9-5 before a combination of an injury to Cousins and front office meddling with HC Mike Malone led to a lost stretch in the middle of the campaign. So the players know that they are capable of winning, they like George Karl, and when they take the court tonight that 24-45 next to them in the standings just does not mean much to them. It should not mean much to the serious handicapper either.
In the Sights…
Let’s go ahead and get #884 Duke out of the way for Friday night, since it was already talked about here –
and you can still get to some -4.5, interestingly available more inside Nevada than out (Cantor, Mirage and Wynn still there this morning).
One of the keys at this stage is to be able to go beyond power ratings and to the circumstances at hand. The Blue Devils will bring a relaxed and confident team, their Coach K having been down this road many times before, while the players have already been through road wins at places like Wisconsin, Louisville, Virginia and North Carolina this season. The Utes and their Coach K? First time around at this level; the collective post-season experience of this roster had been a 12-point NIT loss at Saint Mary’s LY. Major road wins? Only one, if you count BYU, but that is only a short bus ride on game day down to Provo. Against the Pac 12 teams that made the tourney, they lost by 10 at UCLA (when the Bruins were without Tony Parker), by 11 at Oregon, and by 18 at Arizona.
Duke will bring an “A” level here, while Utah is subject to what nerves can do, especially at this particular venue. And as for those power ratings, they may show that the Utes bring a defense that can compete vs. this class, but check THE TOURNEY JOURNEY #8 below, for an enlightening look at how the Blue Devils have carved up some of the nation’s elite defenses this season. The market rate is actually most fair for the advantages the favorite has here, against an underdog that may not get up off of the canvas if they take a hard early punch.
As the Round of 32 becomes the Sweet 16, here are the two reviews from the weekend action, with plenty of food for thought as the Thursday/Friday tipoff’s approach –
The Tourney Journey #7 – Sweet 16 sugar to the winners, while a Top Seed shoots its own foot…Has Calipari shortened his rotation…Survive and Advance, the Sequel?...Tokoto, took control…Irish eyes were smiling (though some had to hold back tears)…
The Tourney Journey #8 – Eight more spoons full of Sugar (none helping San Diego State’s shots go down)…The legacy guys bring out their membership cards…Archie Miller was right, it just worked out wrong…”Rock, Shock, Jayhawk” becomes the new Sunflower State chant…
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