Point Blank – March 6
The Russell Westbrook MVP talk is absurd (Ode the Sports Mediaverse, Part I)…Not quite the Real McCoy (Ode to the Sports Mediaverse, Part II)…Saving their hearts, for Hartford…
The headlines for Russell Westbrook have been off the charts over the past week. He has been the lead story on Sports Center the morning after just about every Oklahoma City game. Twitter has gone ablaze, and all of a sudden it has been common for him to be thrown into the MVP race, with some even making him the front-runner. Which is actually rather bizarre, considering that Westbrook has come awfully close to throwing the Thunder into an 0-4 funk in his last four starts. Yes, you just read that. So in the first of two “Ode’s to the Sports Mediaverse”, there is plenty of work to do today.
Here is what has so many folks excited, Westbrook’s base numbers over his last four games -
Pts Reb Ast
Phoenix 39 11 14
Portland 40 13 11
Philadelphia 49 16 10
Chicago 43 8 7
That looks like heady stuff. All-time great heady stuff. And if you are the sports editor of a high school newspaper, you can write all of the gaudy headlines that you wish. On Twitter, fire away. But if you are at a level at which you are supposed to actually evaluate basketball, say perhaps even bet money on it, then those tables literally paint a portrait not of an emperor that has no clothes, but rather one that is not fashionably dressed at all. Here’s the thing – OKC went 1-3 in those games, with the only win coming over the lowly 76ers in overtime. The Thunder came in 20 points below the market expectations. And much of that was because of the way that Westbrook played -
Westbrook’s last four:
Shooting % 41.4
3-point % 20.0
Turnovers 19
+/- (in) -28
+/- (out) +21
Yes, the last two categories being in BOLD was intentional. That is certainly not the story that is being sold – a guy is being credited with a run for the ages despite the fact that his team has been out-scored by 28 points when he has been on the floor as opposed to being +21 when he was sitting out. OK, so +/- is an imperfect tool, and absolutely is impacted by who you are playing against at the time. But that only takes us to the next part of the equation, how those opposing PGs were faring through this stretch -
Pts Reb Ast +/-
Eric Bledsoe 28 13 9 -4
Damian Lillard 29 3 5 +12
Isaiah Canaan 31 7 6 +5
Bulls ?? ?? ?? ??
OK, first apologies for not knowing which Chicago players to grade at the position. Aaron Brooks started, Kirk Hinrich got a lot of minutes, but in the fourth quarter it was E’twaun Moore going one-on-one with Westbrook. Moore had a simply fantastic game on both ends of the court, scoring 19 points in 22:04, registering a +17 in +/-, and when he was the primary defender on Westbrook, held him to 2-12. Their head-to-head was a clear mismatch. As for Bledsoe, Lillard and Canaan, they combined to shoot 31-54, including 12-23 triples, and only had nine turnovers. Needless to say, they weren't being defended very well.
Yes, Westbrook has played with sensational energy to try to make up for the absence of Kevin Durant. But at a time in which it might have been more important to get Enes Kanter and Kyle Singler involved in the team flow, development opportunities have been wasted. It has been a lot of selfish one-on-one basketball on offense, with matador play on defense, and instead of leading his team to victory, the playoff positioning has become precarious.
So be careful with what you read. A scribe for the Oklahoma City Oklahoman seriously wrote this after the OT win over the 76ers earlier this week – “At some point, some point soon at this rate, we’re going to run out of ways to effectively put into words what Russell Westbrook is doing. … Not even the mask could derail his dominance.” Somehow that writer missed the fact that the Thunder were -12 in Westbrook’s 42:24 of court time, and was outplayed by the rookie Canaan, who shot 10-16, turning in a +5 in his 41:36 stint. Some “dominance”.
The NFL Free Agency signing period begins on Tuesday…
And as a lead-up to that, the Eagles traded LeSean McCoy to Buffalo, partially to get LB Kiko Alonzo in return, but also to clear up $8.6 million in cap space. It caused quite a buzz in the Sports Mediaverse, once again with headlines and stories getting published before many of those doing the writing took the time to think it through. How about – LeSean McCoy could win MVP with Buffalo Bills, Ravens receiver Steve Smith predicts (Newark Star-Ledger), Bills Stealing LeSean McCoy from Eagles Would be Huge Coup for Buffalo (Bleacher Report), and LeSean McCoy Trade Means Time to Sue Eagles for Negligence (BleedingGreenNation), to only name a few. Run a search, and you will find an endless supply.
But given the addition of Alonzo, and the selling off of McCoy’s contract, this is anything but a loss for the Eagles. First, they dealt a RB that is off of back-to-back seasons of over 300 rush attempts, including 80 pass receptions as well in those campaigns. His combined count of rush attempts/pass receptions over the last five read – 285, 321, 254, 366, 340. If you could bet at pick’em that McCoy has already played his best football, you would have excellent value.
Second, Chip Kelly understands what his offense is doing. For all of the talk about pace, there is also some serious technique involved. In each of the past two seasons the Philadelphia OL has rated #1 in run blocking by Pro Football Focus, rallying down the stretch to claim that in 2014, after injuries to Evan Mathis, Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson hampered them early in the season. McCoy ran for 1,319 yards at 4.2 per carry behind that line; but Darren Sproles and Chris Polk combined for 501 yards at 4.9.
With that OL healthy, there will be RBs available that can be productive in these schemes, and look for Kelly to sign someone that is more of a straight north/south runner, rather than McCoy’s east/west style, which better suits the playbook. Also look for that newcomer to be younger and have far fewer carries under his belt. As for McCoy, if we go back to the Pro Football Focus tables, in his division LY he was facing the #19 Cowboys, #26 Giants and #32 Redskins rush defenses, behind that #1 run blocking OL. In the AFC East, it will now be the #2 Jets, #6 Patriots and #17 Dolphins, all behind a Buffalo OL that rated dead last at #32 in run blocking. So much for his MVP prospects.
In the Sights…
Connecticut can still cut down the nets in Indianapolis as repeat National Champions. It would be a true long-shot for the Huskies, who drastically overachieved at the right time LY (it all could have ended so quietly in the first round vs. St. Joseph’s), and this time around pretty much played to their true abilities. Yet they can still win it all, as hope springs eternal when they host the AAC tournament next week. But between now and then comes a trip to Philadelphia to face #520 Temple that just does not mean a damn thing to them. If anything, a case could be mean that playing hard against the Owls would actually be counterproductive, wasting energy in an early tipoff (2 PM Eastern, note the time change) that is an awkward short turnaround, on the heels of a grueling loss to Memphis that did not have them leaving the floor until after 11 PM last night.
Of course, even if the Huskies did play hard it would be a tough matchup. They are just 2-5 SU and ATS on the conference road, falling 30 points below the market expectations. But do not expect to see the “A” game here – the starters played 165 floor minutes on Thursday night, on top of 152 in that showdown vs. SMU on Sunday, and pretty much gave what they had vs. Memphis. Considering that the Tigers were without leading scorer and rebounder Austin Nichols, and won anyway, it speaks to the limitations of Kevin Ollie’s squad.
That is not the case for the Owls. At 22-9 a ticket to the Big Dance has not been punched yet, but a win in this setting would go a long way. The Last Home Game for Will Cummings and Jesse Morgan means a heightened intensity for the players and the fan base, and there should be no difficulty bringing the physical energy – the Owl starters played 35 fewer minutes than the UConn front-liners on Thursday night. They will throw their best punches, and should land many of them against an opponent that may be content to play rope-a-dope until they return home for the conference tourney.
This Week at Point Blank –
Monday: What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Weekend in Review
Tuesday: When they shout “Play Ball”, walk away (remembering Dave Parker, and spring with Old Joe)…A roster that won’t be Brewin’ up many wins…Curry, Thompson & Green shot 2-15 in the 1st Half last night (reviewing before shredding)
Wednesday: Coach K will make a statement tonight (does he need to be guarded with his Guards)…Rudy Gobert, and All That Jazz…Jayhawks of the Lost Arc…The end-game gambit, In Louisville
Thursday: If you don’t know Bo by now (on Wisconsin, and seeing what you don’t see)…The “Eye Chart” for Nikola Mirotic is on the wall…Some fine print for Brian Shaw’s resume…VCU isn’t so “Smart” these days…