Scottydog said:
If it was all about the math, you'd never lose. However, there are so many statistics to look at, how do you pick which ones are the ones that will pay off? Just look at baseball sabermetrics. The list of pertinent statistical categories is like a revolving door. I'm not saying statistics aren't important, but I am saying every pro at pregame also looks at specific situations as well. In most cases the oddsmakers have done the work for you. Now it's up to you to figure out who's going to perform above or below their norm. If you have a stat that tells me that, please post it here and I will be forever grateful.
The first sentence is not true at all. Knowing your edge through math helps you determine what is a play, what is not, and what is your specific edge. It doesn't have anything to do with winning every time.
In regards to what stats to look at, most people arent going to give you a blue print because they don't want food taken off their plate, but it's important to use stats that are not generally talked about. A real simple example is everyone talking about yards per game when yards per play are actually much more important. People think creating turnovers in the NFL is a big deal when they're actually very random and could be a good reason to fade teams in future games because their success is a facade. CFB is a different animal when it comes to turnovers because there is far less parody in skill level and the disproportionate talent between teams takes some of the randomness out of turnovers.
The best answer is the baseline for a number should be rooted in math, but it would be foolish to ignore any potential psychological factors that can come in to play.
Also, what did you mean by "the oddsmakers have done the work for you"?