Point Blank – February 13
Talking Saturdays, Part II…When O.T. does matter, in the database…Washington vs. Central Arkansas (cont’d)…Just because it says Florida on the uniforms…
Last week there was a question in the forum about how to best narrow down the deep Saturday NCAA boards, in order to be more efficient in the handicapping process, and the NBA All Star break provides some time to address those notions. Yesterday there was a bit of a nostalgic take on how bizarre those Saturday’s used to be, compared to the way that the lines are posted and the information flows now. Today it is time for some specifics. There will be no magic here, just some common sense to make the task easier.
The first step is to whittle the board into a manageable size before you begin to take a hard look at any individual games. There will be continued discussions here of specializing in certain conferences over the course of a season, especially from a regional standpoint (my own board it limited to those conferences that I can see, which allows for the “Eye Test” to be a big part of the process). This Saturday there are nearly 80 games on the main board, and not even the most seasoned pro can give the necessary attention to each of them.
But don’t look at the Saturday schedule on Friday and start whittling, begin Monday. Treat Saturday much like a college football board, and have those matchups in your mind during the week. That adds an element to your review of the weekday games, so that you can begin to connect the results directly into what lies ahead for each team. By doing this some decisions can also be made for you – if you are busy on Fridays, and do not always get a chance to break down the Thursday evening results, then you can begin to eliminate conferences that do Thursday-Saturday cycles, or at least teams that fall into those cycles on a given week.
There is another step that I have taken, which you can consider – I rarely venture to the smaller conferences on Saturday’s, something discussed here a little over a month ago. It has to do with the quality of officiating in those leagues, which is lower on a Saturday than during the week, because they are forced to reach to the lower rungs on the referee food chain. That leads to more erratic results, and a higher degree of randomness. None of us need that.
The next step is information flow. There are some teams that get extensive media coverage, which can make the game-day reading of the newspapers an important way to gain insights. Over time you can begin to file those papers, or develop a set of bookmarks, for easier access (there are several aggregate sites out there, for a good quick start you can go here - http://www.usnpl.com). On the major Saturday boards, focusing on where you have the easiest and fastest access to information significantly helps narrow things down (especially with so many games tipping off early; this week there are seven that go at noon or 12:30 Eastern). Meanwhile teams that get lesser coverage can be saved for weekdays, when the boards are smaller, and more time can be allocated to searching for information.
Once you have reduced the board to a manageable size, develop your own time parameters. If the early starts cause too much of a crunch, throw them out. You do not want to be making a decision to play or not to play under pressure, a few minutes before tipoff. If you have the time to handicap through the day you can layer the games by their starting times, and work progressively. That will make it difficult for you to be playing parlays from early tipoffs to night games, which is actually a good thing, because you don’t need to be doing that anyway. If this becomes your flow, keep the money management tight – if you win early you are not “hot”, and should not be increasing the wager size for later games (there is no correlation between the results), and if you lose early absolutely avoid any impulse to chase the day in order to get even.
If you do not have that luxury, and have to turn all of your games in early, be extra patient. There is a natural tendency for some to believe that if they bet five games on a Wednesday it should be 10 on a Saturday, but that can become a harsh reality. The board may double in size, but your personal time to study the board is unlikely to double. Avoid that mindset.
OK, so most of this is just common sense stuff, but it is common sense that often gets lost in the shuffle at frenzied times, which is what those boards can become. As I began to make my own Saturday lines this week, I already have 35 games on the card crossed out. That quickly has the board reduced to a workable size, and when the openers are posted it is likely that about half of the remaining games will fall into a no-play zone. That leaves a nice tight set left to process through, and if you can make this same process become routine, these large cards become far less frenzied, and much more profitable.
About Last Night…
I have always advised, and maintained in-house, a policy of only charting regulation results when data-bases are compiled. Hence, why there will be times that I will quote a different ATS record for a team in a category than you may see from other sources (though I will usually be careful to attach an *, for clarity). That means that Michigan’s 64-52 loss at Illinois last night goes into the records as literally a 50-50 game, a road dog cover to the Wolverines, and an ATS failure for the Illinois. But this game needs to be isolated because of what it could mean for Michigan going forward. This time what happened after regulation absolutely matters.
John Beilein’s team led 50-43 with 3:00 remaining. When they next scored, they were trailing 64-50 with 0:14 left in OT. To be on the wrong end of a 21-0 run at crunch time can be devastating to a team at any part of a season, but may be particularly crushing to the short-handed Wolverines. This was their third OT defeat in a span of seven games, having fallen earlier to Wisconsin and Michigan State, and there is damage from both a physical and psychological standpoint. Naturally those added minutes take a toll on a team that is so short of depth, and it showed in those extra sessions – they were out-scored by a rather stunning 27 points in the 15 OT minutes, the equivalent of losing a regulation 40-minute game by 72.
At another time, one might look at a team that suffered three close defeats vs. opponents likely heading to the Big Dance (Illinois is begin to work up the Bubble) as one that has been real close to getting over the hump, and could bring value in the future. That may not be the case for Michigan; that collections of defeats could be a crushing blow.
In the Sights - Friday…
Central Arkansas is no longer winless – the Bears jumped up and beat New Orleans 70-67 last Saturday, ending their 0-19 opening to the season. Having lost since then to fall to 1-20 it is still a most dismal campaign, dragged down by a defense allowing 1.16 PPP, dead last of the 351 teams in Division I. But on current form they are being challenged.
The prelude for this take began two weeks ago, with a note on how much Washington would miss Robert Upshaw, on top of already being without Jernard Jarreau. A team that had been one of the best in the nation defensively was now a shell of its former self, but it was going to take the markets a long time to acknowledge that. It has been an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS slide since then, falling 24 points short of the projections, an average of 6.0 per game. And the defense has simply been hideous. How bad? The four games without Upshaw have seen them allow a 1.17 PPP, slightly worse than Central Arkansas. Instead of having the nation’s leading shot-blocker around the basket there have been a lot of open paths, with opponents connecting on 58.4 percent of their two-point attempts in those games.
Which takes us to an angry and motivated #813 Arizona tonight. The Wildcats saw their NCAA seeding prospects damaged in Saturday’s loss at Arizona State, and now that they are playing only their second game in 14 days, there will be a high level of physical freshness to go with that anger. And there is absolutely no look-ahead to Washington State on Sunday, which makes this the focus game on the trip to the Pacific Northwest. Based on the Washington current form this may be the biggest defensive gap in a lined game this season (the Wildcats rate #7), and Arizona also attacks the basket well, rating #13 in two-point conversion rate. The favorite is going to get the majority of the rebounds as well, which should gradually break this game open.
In the Sights – Saturday…
There has been a lot of discussion about Florida on this page, starting with “Be careful with Florida assumptions” and in follow-up comments over the past month, including some back-and-forth yesterday. The bottom line remains the same – this is far from being a vintage Billy Donovan team, with a young cast not showing many tangible signs of coming together. But because of the past reputation of the program, the markets remain a step behind. In a current 2-6 SU and ATS slide the Gators have fallen 63.5 points short of the market expectations. Now they are just 12-12 for the season, with even hopes of a minor tournament fading.
There just is not any reason to believe Saturday becomes the turning point, as they head to College Station to face #602 Texas A&M. Having only one day to prepare, with travel included, does not help the psyche of a team playing without swagger, especially since the last two games were “let it all hang out” levels of intensity against Kentucky and Mississippi on national television. In the only SEC game they have had to play with only a day off, they were beaten 73-61 at Georgia a month ago.
It is a much different setting for the Aggies, who are near the Bubble at 16-7, and will treat this as perhaps the biggest of their remaining games. For them, Florida is not a 12-12 team, but rather a long-time power that would be a feather in their caps to beat, and they can not help but use the bitter memory of LY’s horrendous 69-36 loss at Gainesville as a motivating factor. The Gators are vulnerable once again.
This Week at Point Blank
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Starting Five
Tuesday – On using the Brake, before the Break…A coach takes a stand (and some falls) at Mizzou…The Clipper scoreboard was not as good as it looked…Will the Padres, or those that back them, get their money’s worth?
Wednesday – You need to look at all of Justin Anderson’s numbers…The Thunder/Grizzlies revenge motive shifts…Some Divine Providence…When the Beavers don’t have their dam…How does Kansas State score?
Thursday – Talking Saturdays (Part I),,,The Anatomy of a Losing Ticket…Buy-Time, in Boulder…