Point Blank – January 22
What next, for Southern Miss…What tonight, at Fordham…What the rest of the way, for the Rockets…Winning ugly, in Corvallis...
It might not seem like a big deal for Southern Mississippi to self-impose a sanction that drops its team from any post-season play this March. At 5-11 overall, and opening 0-5 in CUSA play, the Golden Eagles were not good enough to go anywhere anyway. But it is one thing to eliminate the NCAA, NIT or the smaller invitationals; it is another matter entirely when even the conference tournament is taken away. Now what was already a difficult rebuilding process under first-year HC Doc Sadler has a chance to go off the rails completely. That has been some of the scuttlebutt in the handicapping fraternity over the past day or so, but there may be at least one misperception in play. That means time to get to work.
Sadler was hardly in the right place at the right time when he arrived in Hattiesburg – while there was quite a legacy in the record books from a team that won 81 games the previous three campaigns, four senior starters departed from LY, while starter #5, Aaron Brown, transferred out. With Edson Avila and Dennis Houston also leaving, and Dallas Anglin dropped from the team after playing in six games (Shadell Millinghaus had also been released the same time as Anglin, but he was re-instated a couple of days ago), it is close to starting from scratch. Naturally they are paying the price on the scoreboards for lacking in talent, and Sadler’s take after losing to UAB on Saturday paint a clear picture -
"Same story. I know everybody wants to win - players, coaches, fans, everybody. We're good enough effort-wise to get wins. We're just not good enough right now execution-wise. Right now, we have no luxury for any part of the game not to be as good as it can be."
Applauding the effort was a positive, but what happens next? It would be one thing if it was an extremely young lineup, but four of the five current starters are seniors or juniors, including Chip Armelin and Jeremiah Eason being in their final year of eligibility. With not even a chance to build towards the conference tourney, what makes them want to go hard? If anything, there could be a resentment because the current coaches and players are not attached to the issues leading to the post-season ban, with almost all of that falling on Donnie Tyndall, who left to take the HC job at Tennessee.
It was this particular aspect that caused a buzz yesterday, when news got out that the team cancelled a Tuesday practice after the University made its announcement. Internet chat began to flow, and naturally there was talk about the team “packing in it”. But while seemingly logical, was that a misread of what really happened? This, from Sadler, tells a different story - "We're not going to practice a lot. I made the decision not to go on the practice floor because of injuries. We got a lot done. The attitude was tremendous and I was really impressed by the questions asked in the film room. All of us are disappointed, but at the same time all of us look at it as a challenge to compete each and every day. They'll play for each other and the fans. When you do that, that's all you can ask for."?
Southern Miss will not be an easy read, without an eye test – the Eagles are capable of playing hard and still turning in awful box scores (they are allowing 50 percent shooting in conference play, with a horrible ratio of 84 assists vs. only 48 turnovers). And part of the injury aspect that prevented a Tuesday practice was leading scorer Matt Bingaya, who has not been on the court since leaving late in Saturday’s loss. It is a much greater challenge than Sadler thought he was taking on, but there could also be opportunity here for those that follow closely enough to get the proper read.
Meanwhile in the Bronx…
Effort should not be a problem at Fordham tonight – there are a host of side events to commemorate the 90th anniversary of Rose Hill Gym (the oldest facility still in use in Division I), with a packed house being given t-shirts for a “Maroon Out”, and the team wearing throwback uniforms. It is the only game in a span of 11 days for the Rams, which should mean a top effort. But that brings with it the usual handicapping conundrum – what does a showcase setting really mean for a bad team?
The problem with charting these situations, as you might imagine, is volatility. There are some games in which the team plays well, relishing the opportunity to have a sense of purpose, and to also have some genuine fan support. But there are also ugly crashes, with bad teams unable to handle the added pressure that this kind of environment can bring. So how do these Rams fit? Unfortunately not very well.
It has been a 39-96 run for Tom Pecora, now in his fifth season as HC, and he just has bot been able to upgrade the talent level enough to compete in the Atlantic 10. In opening 0-5 in conference play this season four of the defeats have come in double figures, and the only two home games were almost identical drubbings of 75-58 vs. VCU and 76-58 vs. Dayton. If you do insist on backing them in tonight’s unique atmosphere, perhaps a First Half ticket might offer the best opportunity – at least the early energy could get them out of the gate well, before a savvy and experienced George Washington team makes the latter stages more difficult.
About Last Night…
A big part of yesterday’s focus (link at the bottom of the page) was on how important that game at Golden State could prove to be for the psyche of Houston, with an expectation of failure heading in. Not only did the Rockets fail, but they did it by much worse than the 13-point final margin will indicate. Now the potential problem going forward - instead of having the swagger of being 29-14 and in the hunt for seeding in the Western Conference, they may instead resign themselves to the fact that they simply are not good enough.
As noted on Wednesday, two double-figure losses to the Warriors when Dwight Howard was unable to play can be discounted. But both on Saturday night at home, and last night on the coast, they had Howard in the lineup, plus the previous day off to be both fresh, and to prepare their game plan. Yet on Saturday they trailed by as many as 31; last night they trailed by as many as 30.
In combining Howard with James Harden the franchise has two high-level talents on hand, but also two players that do not own a ring, and have yet to win any awards as team leaders. Hence the real problem going forward – the confidence of that duo has to be shaken off of their own contributions to those blowouts vs. Golden State:
Player Minutes +/-
Howard 59:07 -44
Harden 62:01 -38
Despite their statistical successes and placement in the W/L standings, this can be a fragile team in the weeks ahead, especially with the return of Kawhi Leonard having the Spurs positioned to overtake them for third place in the Southwest. The realizations from those drubbings vs. the Warriors could have significant repercussions.
In the Sights…
Somehow defense still does not bring much sex appeal, even in the days of more sophisticated betting markets. That has been the story with #562 Oregon State, which has been superb on that end of the court, using a variety of switching zones in Wayne Tinkle’s first season. Despite losing the top five scorers from LY’s team the Beavers bought in early on that end of the court, and the fact that they have been winning brings the motivation to keep buying in – they are unbeaten in Corvallis this season, and in going 9-0 ATS in lined home games they have exceeded the expectations by 93.5 points. Yet with the current trading making them available at +1 tonight vs. UCLA, the markets are still at least a half step behind.
Yes, there were some weak sisters to help Oregon State get out of the gate. But in the last two home games before Pac 12 play there were decisive wins over DePaul and UC Santa Barbara, and in conference play they beat the spread by 19 in sweeping the Arizona schools on this court, holding them to a combined 103 points. They rate #25 in the nation in overall defensive efficiency, including #13 in effective FG%, and #20 in turnover ratio. Now it is the first home game in 11 days, and as always a visit from UCLA brings out the best from the crowd.
Consider the Bruins vulnerable in this setting. They are not well-suited to playing a half-court grinder, and could be without a key physical presence if Tony Parker, who injured his back in practice this week, is unable to log much playing time. In Steve Alford’s two seasons they are just 5-12-1 ATS in regulation in games in which neither they nor their opponents topped 75 points, and they are not good enough at forcing tempo with their limited cast to get this flow out of the Beaver comfort zone. The home team can scratch and claw their way to an ugly win in this setting, and it only takes an ugly win to get the money as well.
This Week at Point Blank
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Starting Five
Tuesday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL Conference Championships…Steve Kerr’s bench Warriors…Be careful with Florida assumptions…
Wednesday – A character test for Houston…LaMarcus Aldridge stays home (and don’t be fooled by a misleading measurement)…Wisconsin did not have a turnover (*) vs. Iowa…On Pistons and Pendulums…