Point Blank – December 19
The Clausen/Cutler Conundrum…A Case Study, in Houston…”In the Sights” – What Happens In Vegas, can go to your pockets…
I am not a Jimmy Clausen fan. He has not taken meaningful snaps since 2010, when Carolina went 1-9 in his starts, and he turned in a miserable 58.4 Passer Rating (9 INTs/3 TDs, you get the picture). The ball just does not come out of his hands quickly enough, or with the proper zip, to beat NFL defenses. Having said that, when asked to evaluate the difference between Clausen and Cutler this week on the Thursday NFL podcast I do with R.J. Bell and Steve Fezzik the answer may come as a surprise – not much, maybe a point or so. Since the details behind that matter as you ponder Chicago/Detroit, it makes for a good mini-seminar.
If you were going to build a team starting today, there is a significant gap between Cutler and Clausen. But if the focus is on this particular Bears unit, and how well they will perform this week, it is another matter entirely. This is a team that has lost six times by 13 points or more over the last eight games, with some of them beat-downs that were much worse than the final score (7-45 vs. New England only finished 23-51; 0-45 at Green Bay ended 14-55; 7-35 after three quarters vs. Dallas goes into the books 28-41; 0-24 after three quarters vs. New Orleans on Monday brought an inappropriate 15-31 final inscription). Cutler has simply been terrible as a leader through that stretch, and not all that much better as a QB, when you account for how much of his production came against late-game prevent defenses that were extremely passive. So a starting point is that any adjustment to another QB can not be much, because it will be difficult to produce less than Cutler did, once those game situations are factored.
But there is more. If he does not take the field against this season, Cutler's Passer Rating would close at 89.5, currently #17. That makes him just a little below average, but that also requires further thought. First is the continuation of the reference in the last paragraph – he piled up some positive statistics when trailing so badly on the scoreboard that opposing defenses did not care. But second is that he composed those numbers despite being surrounded for most of the season by Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett. That is a lot of Pro Bowl potential, and to rate below average while working with that cast means that Cutler was seriously below average.
Remember 2013? Cutler produced 7.4 yards per pass and an 89.2 rating on 355 attempts, but when he was out with an injury, Josh McCown threw for 8.2 per attempt with a 109.0 rating in 224. McCown parlayed that into a nice contract with Tampa Bay. He had 13 TD passes vs. only one INT; the Cutler ratio was 19/12. Hence, the shorter adjustment to Clausen this week than his talent level would ordinarily call for. And there is a considered belief that Chicago will play harder for him than for Cutler, who has seemingly lost the trust after 81 regular-season games as a Bear. This will impact the overall attitudes at practice this week, and generate a spark for a team that may have otherwise come out very flat. It will be up to Clausen’s physical abilities to keep the flames lit for 60 minutes. Sadly, they are not much.
Meanwhile in Houston…
There will not be a formal announcement of the starting QB until Sunday, according to Bill O’Brien. But it is difficult to imagine that it won’t be Case Keenum ahead of Thaddeus Lewis. Keenum spent the 2012-13 seasons with the Texans, including eight starts LY, so he knows the other players well, and had a crash course with Bill O’Brien’s playbook before being cut in late August, when they found out that Ryan Mallett was available. Since then, Keenum has been biding his time on the St. Louis practice squad.
Keenum was not terrible in 2013, he just did not show a lot of upside. His 78.2 Passer Rating put him ahead of the likes of Joe Flacco and Eli Manning. Yet the adjustment by the marketplace has been substantial. Those properties that set early lines for the following week had the Ravens/Texans clash around pick’em, and you could have taken +1 with Baltimore at a major Las Vegas property. But to move from there across that key “3” and “4” threshold either requires Ryan Fitzpatrick to have been better than he was, or for Keenum to be a complete newcomer to this offense. Neither is the case. And do not neglect O'Brien's acumen at bringing along a QB.
Here is where the matchup gets intriguing – Andre Johnson is back at practice this week, after sitting out vs. the Colts on Sunday. When he is healthy, he combines with DeAndre Hopkins to form one of the best WR duos in the NFL. That means genuine weapons that opposing CBs have to deal with, and the CB spot just happens to be the major Baltimore weakness right now. When Asa Jackson went down on Sunday it marked the fifth player at the position to be lost for the season, leaving Lardarious Webb, who has rarely played at full health this fall, and a supporting cast now made up of Anthony Levine (three career starts), Rashaan Melvin (had never played an NFL down until last Sunday) and Antoine Cason (joined the team this week, after being released by Carolina). It is an awkward mix, both in terms of talent and chemistry.
With a home game vs. Jacksonville up next, a Sunday victory will have the Texans on track for a winning season, so the energy level will be high. That puts them In the Sights at the current trading levels, with an itchy trigger finger poised to react at +6.
In the Sights, "What Happens in Vegas"…
Yesterday there was a detailed look at how the bowl venues themselves can be factors over the next couple of weeks (link below), and there was a note about the crowd that #205 Utah can expect as an advantage vs. Colorado State in Las Vegas on Saturday. Now that -2.5 is showing in a couple of key precincts, that creates a prime opportunity to also take advantage of something else that will be a theme through the weeks ahead – understanding the relative merits of the conferences.
Since September, most of the NCAA nation has been locked into conference play, with few chances for comparisons between the leagues. That works to the advantage of the savvy handicapper. By keeping these comparisons in the back of your mind all season you can notice some of the fine print that will make a difference through the bowl matchups. And this time around many of those details have been telling us that the Pac 12 is quite good, and the Mountain West a step below mediocre.
Utah has shown plenty of growth, getting noted in a “What a Bettor Better Know” Monday NCAA take back in October, and there were few teams that held up better on the road. The Utes grabbed outright wins over the likes of UCLA and Stanford, easily coasted past Michigan in a game that provided some conference comparisons, also emerged with wins at Oregon State and Colorado, while taking Arizona State into OT before coming up three points short. And when they had a chance to face a Mountain West team it was a 59-27 home thumping of a Fresno State team that will be playing in a bowl in a few days.
Colorado State has had a solid season, but the Rams faced precious few challenges, and got whipped 37-24 at Boise State (37-10 into the fourth quarter) in their biggest step-up affair. Now they face the disillusioning negative of Jim McElwain having left for greener pastures, while also going up against the most physical defensive front they have faced all season (Utah led the nation in sacks, a 4.3 per game that far eclipsed the rest, and was #4 in tackles for loss). Despite how good Garrett Grayson’s passing numbers appear, he is only ordinary when his OL is not commanding the line of scrimmage, which will show as this game wears on.
This Week at Point Blank –
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Weekend Starting Five
Tuesday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #15
Wednesday – The State of NFL QB Play, 2014 (You gotta throw the damn ball)…Some NBA Offense, “In the Sights”…
Thursday – Bowling for Dollar$, and setting your sights on the sites…When a Defense can’t be defended…The markets are hearing the Thunder, but has there been any Lightning yet?...