Point Blank – December 16
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #15
The NFL Week that Was, including a lot of shuffling at the key QB positions that will impact the season’s closing stretch, and how you can sort through that to best set up your own portfolio…
Item: Buffalo holds Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers to 358 yards, 4 INTs and no TDs (it’s OK to like Jim Schwartz now)
In all other games, that QB duo has 72 TDs vs. 12 INTs. That is quite a statement about the kind of defense that Bills have been playing, and it does create a certification of authenticity, something that was still difficult to completely stamp after they had shackled the struggling Jet and Browns offenses in the two previous games. For the season they are now #3 in yards per play allowed, and #1 in sack percentage, as they take to the road for the final two games with a slim chance to make the playoffs. For what it’s worth, Manning’s passer rating of 56.9 was his lowest since 2008, and the 34.3 for Rodgers the worst of his career.
And guess what this allows us to do? Begin liking Jim Schwartz. He did not bring the management skills to be a HC at Detroit, but in terms of tactics and creating passion, he fits as a DC quite well, and in particular his past history against Aaron Rodgers helped to set Sunday’s game plan. Given how in sync the Packer offense had been heading in, imagine the odds of a team beating them without scoring an offensive TD of their own?
The downside was another anemic showing by that offense, which netted just 13 first downs and 4.0 per snap. Take away those two fourth-quarter drives at Denver two games back, when they scored TDs down 24-3 and 24-10, and it has been awhile since they marched to the end zone vs. a defense that was genuinely trying. But there will not be a change at QB since the playoff beacon still flickers, even though they have gotten about what there was to get out of Kyle Orton. That makes it difficult to give them much of a look as road chalk this week, despite the fact that this defense is more than capable of shutting the Raiders down. And when you crunch the numbers on that particular matchup, note that…
Item: Oakland did it again
This has been covered on several occasions already, but remains pertinent – by being terrible, the Raiders have been able to produce better statistics then if they were merely bad. Add yet another meaningless TD drive on the final series of a game, this one 63 yards in eight plays to reach the end zone at Kansas City with 0:34 remaining. There were 10 penalty yards on the drive, and when it started the Raiders were averaging 3.3 yards per play over their first 69 snaps. For the season this offense has 23 TDs, but seven of them have come in the final 2:00 of a game in which they were trailing in double figures. That is a rather significant part of their production, with the base scoreboard making it a full 3.5 points per game. Their final eight quarters will come against two of the best defenses in the league, and teams that may need to win for playoff positioning (the Broncos could still be alive for the home field in the finale), which does not bode well at all for this attack.
Item: Is Miami running on empty?
There are rumblings out of Miami early this week that the final two games may only be a formality in terms of the Joe Philbin era; a third season without a playoff appearance will apparently be enough to seal his fate. Which should actually have candidates scrambling to get their resumes in order – this is a plum opportunity with a team that has played some good football this season, and shows plenty of upside. But what about those last eight quarters?
The Dolphins look both physically and mentally worn down right now. Those are not things that get fixed in the closing stretch unless there is a prime motivation to aim for, but the playoffs no longer beckon, and with the amount of attention being given to Philbin’s status across the Sports Mediaverse, the players can not help but feel that there is not much left to the season. It does not seem all that long ago that they were leading Baltimore 10-0, and on the verge of a key win. But the last seven quarters have 69-13 against them.
Consider the physical aspect. Over those last seven quarters the ground game has only mustered 3.3 per attempt on 31 tries. What had been a formidable pass rush only got to Joe Flacco and Tom Brady once on 69 dropbacks over those two defeats. That is the kind of attrition that can happen against a difficult schedule – 10 of the 14 games have been against winning teams, and while there are only eight teams with 10 wins or more, the Dolphins have been up against members of that group five times. This has been a good Miami team throughout this season, occasionally very good, but what we see the next two weeks may not resemble that.
Item: Ben Roethlisberger & Matt Ryan averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt
There have been takes here in recent weeks about just how bad the Steeler and Falcon pass defenses have been, with bad numbers that are even worse when you factor in the significantly soft level of competition they have faced. So when that 27-20 Pittsburgh win got chalked up on Sunday you might have thought those defenses stepped up a bit. Except they didn’t. Roethlisberger and Ryan combined to go 53-72 for 670 yards and a pair of TDs, with only one sack and one interception. The WRs ran free throughout the day, with the Brown/Wheaton/Bryant trio for the Steelers catching 18 passes for 220 yards, and even without Julio Jones the Falcon triumvirate of Douglas/White/Hester turned in a 22-274. It added up to the QBs averaging 9.3 per pass attempt, nearly one full yard more than the 8.4 of Aaron Rodgers that leads the league this season.
So what did the defenses do to keep the scoring down? Not much, outside of forcing four drives to end with FG attempts instead of TDs. The key was actually a slow game pace, which saw only 115 snaps, about 10 percent below the season average of 128. These defenses just do not bring much to the table, and even on a respectable scoreboard afternoon there was precious little to like. But while Roethlisberger and Ryan put up some nice numbers on Sunday, for QBs around the rest of the NFL there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty, which is a factor across this week’s board. So let’s get to it…
Item: What now for the Arizona QBs?
Three teams in the NFL are 11-3. Two of them have guys named Manning and Brady in charge of their offense. The Cardinals have gone from Carson Palmer to Drew Stanton while hanging around, and now there is a question as to whether Stanton’s knee injury will just cause him to miss the final two games, or if he can make it back for the playoffs. So what does that leave? Ryan Lindley, who struggled mightily in his first stint with the Cardinals back in 2012, and Logan Thomas, who may be ticketed to struggle mightily whenever he does play.
Lindley got an extended look when injuries wrecked the Arizona QB rotation in 2012, and was terrible. So much so that he did not make an NFL field in 2013. He averaged only 4.4 yards per pass, with seven INTs and zero TDs, leading to a QB rating of 46.7. Had he thrown enough passes to qualify, that would have been the worst mark since Ryan Leaf’s 39.0 in 1998. But those were also different circumstances; it was the last days of Ken Whisenhunt’s regime, a team that went on a dismal 1-11 slide to close out the campaign.
Now Lindley guts the tutelage of Bruce Arians, and has a decent cast of receivers to work with. What he does not have is a run-blocking OL, or anyone at RB that commands respect, things that matter against the Seahawk and 49er* defenses left on the schedule (* - assuming San Francisco is still showing any interest by then). Rate him a full three points in this week’s price range off of Stanton. As for Thomas, who was actually #2 on the depth chart at St. Louis last Thursday but did not get the call, he is not ready, and may never be. He was kept on the roster more as a developmental player than one that Arians had any plans to use this season, but his lack of accuracy means little upside in a league that requires that component.
Item: What now for the Tennessee & Jacksonville QBs?
The NFL Network got stuck with a clunker for Thursday night, and it could get even worse. While there is not much difference between what Jake Locker and Charlie Whitehurst can do for the current Titan offense, given their injuries, the issue becomes how ready Jordan Palmer could possibly be if called upon. Palmer has not been with any team since being waived by the Bears in August, and in addition to not knowing the Tennessee system, there will be some physical rust. It is a genuine issue, because Titan QBs have been taking a lot of contact this season via that depleted OL, so Whitehurst going a full game is not a certainty.
As for the Jaguars, Blake Bortles is expected to play despite a sprained foot, but if he is the franchise QB, why would they force that on a short week? Having been sacked eight times by the Ravens, making it 19 over the last three games, why put him out there at anything less than full health? There would not be any market adjustment for Chad Henne, which is why this game is on the board across the betting universe, instead of being held back for more evaluation.
Item: What now for the Houston QBs?
Bill O’Brien has built much of his resume around the ability to develop QBs, and he will really be put to the test here. From Ryan Fitzpatrick to Ryan Mallett, back to Fitzgerald, then to Tom Savage when Fitzgerald was injured on Sunday, and now even Savage’s season is likely over because of a knee injury.
That makes it Case Keenum vs. Thad Lewis for the starting spot this week. Keenum knows his way around the locker room a bit, having between with the team for two seasons before being released when Mallett was acquired this August. Lewis is with his fourth team over five seasons, with six starts under his belt, but was released by Buffalo in August, and not signed by the Texans until November 24, a little more than a week after he had also had a try-out with the Eagles (who needed another body when Nick Foles was injured). There is one added degree of familiarity – O’Brien was the Duke OC back in 2006, when Lewis started as a freshman, but that is a rather tenuous link. The matchup vs. the Ravens provides a difficult adjustment for the oddsmakers, because it will have to cross key #’s 3 and 4.
Don’t sleep on another aspect to that matchup, the Baltimore loss of Asa Jackson in the secondary. With Jimmy Smith already sidelined that is a precariously thin group right now (Rashaan Melvin had never even played in a game prior to Sunday, and is now projected as a starter), although they do get the luck of the draw in terms of the QB they will face this week.
Item: What now for the Cleveland QBs (and defense)?
With Sunday’s loss essentially ending any real playoff hopes for the Browns, there is not going to be a change, despite Johnny Manziel appearing to be completely overmatched. His 23 drop-backs netted just 80 yards, with three sacks and a pair of INTs. Combined with Brian Hoyer, the last 152 Cleveland pass attempts have generated 10 INTs, without a single TD. But this topic is not about Hoyer or Manziel, but rather the impact on the defense.
In last Tuesday’s column the question was raised about potential locker room friction, as the secondary continues to play about as well as any in the NFL (despite that decisive scoreboard, the Bengals netted only 4.0 per pass attempt), but there were comments that showed a frustration building. That is why Sunday’s final drive is worth a closer look.
The Bengals took control at their own 14, with 9:07 remaining. Up 23-0, their only thought was to work the clock. Three running plays and a punt would have suited Marvin Lewis just fine. But for that to happen the defense would have to show interest in making a stop. Cleveland didn’t. The Bengals methodically marched down the field, throwing only one time in 14 snaps, and it became a race of the clock vs. the goal line as to how it would end. The goal line won, with Rex Burkhead crossing it with 0:23 remaining. There was no finesse, merely lining up and running straight ahead, and the Browns simply did not show any heart. A big factor in breaking down this week’s trip to Carolina is whether they have any left, taking what has actually been a positive season overall and threatening to make the final coat of paint the wrong color.
What now for the Carolina QBs?
While the Panther defense gets the bonus of facing Manziel and the Browns, with the motivation of taking a step closer to a playoff spot that appeared so unlikely a month ago, it will not be until later in the week that the status of Cam Newton will be known. But in truth the gap between Newton and Derek Anderson may not be all that wide. Anderson accounted himself well in leading the Carolina offense to 28 first downs in that win over Tampa Bay, completing 25-40 for 277 yards. The key is that he was getting the ball down the field – only one of those completions was a dump-off to a RB, with Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin combining for 18 receptions for 214 yards. If there are lingering questions about Newton’s mobility, there should not be any hesitation for them to trust Anderson one more time.
Item: Vegas (Monday’s with the Review-Journal)
As the Holidays approach a Monday lunch with the Review-Journal NFL box score page also takes a different focus, sorting through the list of places where Seasons Greetings can be extended to those that will appreciate them. And this week it meant a trip to a place far off of most radar screens, but one that has certainly stood the test of time, Tacos El Rodeo (2115 North Decatur). It is an easy place to drive past, since there is a sign on the door but not one fronting the rather dilapidated strip mall, and in truth is a Mexican restaurant, not just a taco shop. But when you can afford the calories of a pre-holiday feast, a platter of their tacos is the way to go.
It was not long ago that finding a good taco, or much of anything genuine across the Mexican cuisine spectrum, was difficult in Las Vegas. That has turned around in a major way over the past decade, and in another 5-10 years this valley will become one of the best places for regional Mexican specialties in the United States. The audience is here, so the entrepreneurs are bringing the supply to meet the demand.
The family behind El Rodeo was way ahead of that curve, and are into their second decade in Las Vegas. You will not find a young worker in a uniform in the back cooking to some pre-set specification, but rather the same hands that have been there all along. This is what they do, and they take great pride in their product. A sampler of four different tacos, with rice and beans, will only set you back a pittance, while also alleviating the need for much more than a snack the rest of the day. And afterwards the Feliz Navidad greetings bring an extra warmth because there is a sense that they really do care about their customers, much the same way many of those customers care about them. You come away feeling like you did not eat in a restaurant, but rather at their home.
This week at Point Blank:
Monday - What a "Bettor Better Know" - The Weekend Starting Five