Point Blank – November 26
NFL Thursday: A Triptophan effect?...A Homecoming on Paradise Island…Reputation vs. Reality in Maui…
OK, so the whole thing about tryptophan from eating too much turkey at Thanksgiving dinner making you sleepy is only legend, not fact. But it still provides a cheap and easy way to tie in what may be key factors in your handicap of all three Thursday NFL games – fatigue may absolutely be a part of the proceedings.
It begins early Chicago/Detroit, where some of the Lion issues were discussed in this week’s NFL recap column (link at the bottom). Without Nick Fairley that defensive front is showing some signs of wearing down, having gone 104 pass attempts since the last sack, but for this particular game it is the Sunday snap counts of both defenses that are from and center – the Lions had to face 73 plays at New England, while the Bears were on the field for 74 vs. Tampa Bay. That was the season high for each group. And while tactical preparation is usually easier vs. a division opponent, this is the first time Detroit has faced Jay Cutler and company with Jim Caldwell as HC and DC Teryl Austin, while Marc Trestman and Mel Tucker are only making their second trip to Detroit.
Here is a unique way that Trestman is handling the setting – the Bears are not going to practice at all this week. It was film study at Halas Hall on Tuesday, and then the flight to Detroit today. It is an unusual approach, but the same plan that Trestman followed in the only Thursday night game of his career so far, a 27-21 win, but non-cover as -9.5, at home vs. the Giants last October. The problem this time around is that LB Lance Briggs (out) and CB Kyle Fuller (game-time decision) are dinged up, and some practice time might have helped the chemistry of their replacements.
Then on to Philadelphia/Dallas, where fatigue may be a significant factor for the Cowboy defense. Not only is this a most unusual setting, going from a Sunday night road game to a Thursday afternoon, but the Dallas defenders were on the field for 74 snaps against the Giants in the Meadowlands, their season-high, and they were intense snaps in a game that went to the final possession. They were also not terribly successful, allowing 27 first downs, 416 yards, and an alarming 11-16 on third-down conversions.
There is at least some experience at putting a game plan together – this will be the fourth Thanksgiving game for Jason Garrett as a head coach, and while Rod Marinelli is in his first season as DC, he was the DL coach LY, and also had to prepare the Detroit Lions three times as HC for playing in this kind of cycle. But this one may go beyond the X’s and O’s – the Eagle offense got off 83 snaps on Sunday, and it would be no surprise if they tried to set one of the faster paces we are going to see all season, to tax a defense that has not been accustomed to facing such a tempo. Largely through the ball control of their own offense, the Dallas defenders have only been on the field for an average of 60.4 snaps per game, #29 across the league.
The Seattle/San Francisco night-cap brings a key NFC West showdown that puts the loser in a difficult position in the playoff hunt. This time it is not about play counts, but rather the style of recent opponents that can make a difference. The Seahawks are off of Kansas City and Arizona, two of the more physical teams in the NFL, while the 49ers are only off of the Giants and Redskins, who do not tax a team nearly as much in the trenches.
For Seattle it is a combination – not only off of physical opponents leading in to this short weak, but also being without two key cogs up front. Two games back the Seattle defense showed how much Brendan Mebane means in allowing Kansas City to run for 190 yards at 6.3 per attempt, and in the first game with Pro Bowler Max Unger leading the OL, Russell Wilson was sacked seven times in 29 drop-backs by the Cardinals. The 49ers can take advantage with a pass rush that has been re-charged by the return of Aldon Smith, but whether Colin Kaepernick and the offense can be trusted remains an issue, this deep into the season. The Redskins were essentially out of CBs at the end of Sunday’s game, with SS Brandon Meriweather having to switch to that position, and WR Santana Moss being prepared on the sidelines to be the next in line should another injury occur. Yet the 49ers struggled to take advantage, and had they not converted a fourth-and-one at their own 34-yard line with a little over 5:00 remaining, that may well have ended the game with a dismal 10 points.
So consider these your appetizers before sitting down to the Thursday football feast. There are the usual stats and matchups to consider, but in each of these games there is that added fatigue issue that should be a part of your processes.
In the Sights (2:30 Eastern tip-off)…
Early-season tournaments can be filled with many subtle edges if you are on the look-out, and a couple of them come together in the same setting when #754 Oklahoma takes on UCLA in the opening round of the Battle 4 Atlantis, a tourney in the Bahamas with a terrific field. A solid case can be made that Lon Kruger’s Sooners are much more ready to play today than the Bruins, with four starters among 11 returning lettermen, and the addition of transfer TaShawn Thomas. Meanwhile Steve Alford faces a challenge of developing chemistry around a lone returning starter, and with depth issues. Depth and continuity absolutely matter in uptempo early-season games, but there is more in play for the Sooners.
This is a “homecoming” game for Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield (16.5 ppg as a sophomore LY, 20.7 so far this season), who is from the Bahamas, and it could mean a special level of focus. The team flew out on Monday and had a dinner cooked by his mother, and the stands will be filled with friends and family. This kind of setting is one that you will find often in the early parts of a college season, when games are either scheduled to reward a player currently on the roster, or as part of the recruiting process itself. In Hield’s case, it was the latter. He was a rare major talent coming from the islands, with NBA upside, and Kruger dangled the possibility of an advance commitment to this tournament as part of his sales pitch. From Hield - “That’s one of the big things they used with me. That’s good recruiting. They used it and they used it well.” And there is plenty of pride in his native land, including him being the leading scorer for the national team in the FIBA CentroBasket Championships this summer.
Look for the Sooners to be more settled in, and play with both a higher passion, and a better execution level, than a Bruin squad that is a long way from campus, and tipping off at 11:30 AM on their body clocks.
About Last Night…
“Some of heir bigs were hedging a little soft, so we were able to take advantage of that and take it to the rim.” That was a post-game comment from San Diego State’s Trey Kell after the Aztecs hammered Pittsburgh 74-57 out in Maui, with Kell scoring 12 of his 15 points in the first half of that easy win. It was rather striking to read – could anyone have ever anticipated a Jamie Dixon defense being called “soft” in any way? But that is exactly what Pittsburgh has been out on the islands.
First, note that it is not the prototype Panther team on the floor that we have grown accustomed to in the Dixon years. They are playing without a center, and with only one senior, Derrick Randall, in the rotation. And while he is in his last year of eligibility, Randall is only in his second season with Pittsburgh, after transferring from Rutgers. The usual size and defensive tenacity is not there, and it has been a horrific road trip on that end of the court. It began with a 74-70 loss to Hawaii on Friday night, when the Rainbows shot 27-51 from the field, carried over to a lackluster 81-68 win over Chaminade, and then last night’s blowout. Each of those three opponents have had their best shooting game of the season against this defense, a combined 79-146 for 54.1 percent. San Diego State shot 27-46, after entering the game at 39.1 percent.
Kansas State may not be the ideal team to trust as chalk in this price range, especially after the Wildcats fought hard to the final minute against Arizona last night. But if they get silly with this Total later in the day, there may be some Over opportunity.
This week at Point Blank -
Monday: What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #13
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Tuesday: What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #12
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