Point Blank – November 21
Taking advantage of NFL Pendulums…Showing off for the Alumni…A “Passing Fancy” for Friday Night
One of the prime keys to beating the NFL over the latter half of the season is taking advantage of stale statistics and misleading trends, especially if there are particular patterns that have exhausted the logic of their course, becoming pendulums that are about to change direction. And when there are tangible factors that come into play as those directions change, they can quickly accelerate the movement. Time it properly, and it means money for the pocket. There may be a good example of such a setting in Atlanta this Sunday, so let’s get to work.
Cleveland heads to the Georgia Dome having played six straight Unders. For the host Falcons, it has been 5-0-1 to the Under in that same span. When that happens markets react, especially with season-long results now carrying so much weight. But at the very time that many in that marketplace are thrilled to have 10 games for each team in their data-bases, many of those numbers are already becoming stale. In terms of this matchup, some have precious little relevance.
The recent Cleveland past will not be much of a barometer to project the next stages, with the defense inevitably falling off after losing Phil Taylor, and almost assuredly being without both Karlos Dansby and Jabaal Sheard at LB for this week. It is difficult to lose two players from the same tier a the same time, and it is going to force Barkevious Mingo into the starting lineup, despite the fact that he is having to play with a shoulder brace. Meanwhile the offense will be getting the major boost of Josh Gordon’s return. You may not see big numbers from Gordon on Sunday, but his mere presence forces so much respect from a struggling Atlanta defense that it will spread the field in a way the Browns have not been able to all season. And given that they were #2 in the NFL in fewest seconds per snap without Gordon, trailing only the Eagles, that pace should only get faster.
As for that “struggling” Falcon defense, their numbers do bring a relative constant to this equation – they are who they are. The key is that those numbers are worse than what many in the marketplace will perceive. They reside at #32 on the Football Outsiders best charts, rating dead last against the pass, and #27 against the run. Other measurements will be more kind, but they will not have factored that schedule into play, with the current 2-0 Atlanta run coming vs. inept Tampa Bay and Carolina offenses, after the trip to London in which neither Calvin Johnson nor Reggie Bush played for the Lions. Try it this way – Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck are the top seven in Passer Rating so far this season. The Falcons have not had to face any of them. In only three of 10 games has this defense even faced a QB that is in the Top 20 in that category. But the bottom line keeps showing all of those recent Unders, which means that if the defense is not good, then the offense must be really bad. But it isn’t.
Atlanta is built for speed on offense, to take advantage of playing in a dome, but the Falcons have simply not been here in a while – not since October 12 vs. Chicago. And through that cycle they have had to sort through a litany of injuries in the OL. As such, misleading numbers got created. But now they not only return to their favored environment, but also have the spark of actually being in first place in the sorry NFC South. Look for Matt Ryan and his receivers to attack aggressively here, taking advantage of those Cleveland defensive adjustments, and picking up their own pace, which already sits at #7 in seconds per snap.
The game being played on the field in Atlanta on Sunday may not bear much resemblance to the recent scoreboards and flows of either the Falcons or the Browns. The key is to not be too anchored to the past, and to be nimble enough to adjust quickly as circumstances change, a key in a marketplace that is more adept at reacting than projecting.
Showing off for the Alumni…
Last Friday in this spot there was a discussion about how basketball teams playing at home that night could benefit from a bigger court advantage than usual for an early non-conference setting, if the football team was also home that weekend. It has been a slow grinder through the years, and produced a 5-3 ATS on that board. The logic is simple – many alumni coming in for the football game will also watch the basketball team in action as well. That increased crowd count can help to un-nerve the visiting teams, many of them playing on a particular court for the first time, and also boosts the enthusiasm level of the home coaches and players. It motivates them to show well to set the tone for the season ahead, an opportunity to get many of those same fans to come back for future games. Tonight in that setting (in rotation order) –
#526 MICHIGAN STATE, #528 VIRGINIA, #530 OREGON, #532 GEORGIA, #534 FLORIDA, #538 AUBURN, #540 UTAH, #544 COLORDO STATE, #550 HAWAII.
You should note that there does need to be an adjustment down for Hawaii. Because Pittsburgh is playing in the Maui Classic next week, the Panthers are settling in to the islands for a while, instead of only coming out for one game. They left Pittsburgh on Wednesday, which should have their legs beneath them much more than would usually be a case for an East Coast team playing that late at night.
In the Sights…
There has been plenty of market activity to San Diego State over Air Force for Friday’s matchup on the west coast, with +6.5 becoming available despite the fact that the Falcons are the better team. That brings value in a game in which a victory by the underdog would hardly be classified as an “upset”. So where have the markets gone wrong?
First is that some of the move is because Jacobi Owens not being able to go for Air Force, and it would appear that taking 1,054 yards out of the equation would be tough to replace. But back-up Devin Rushing is more than capable, with 245 yards and a pair of TDs at 5.6 per carry. Second on the list may be that history of Rocky Long doing well vs. option teams, with a 3-0 SU and ATS in this series since becoming Aztec head coach. But these are entirely different looks coming from Troy Calhoun’s playbook this year, and the SDS defense that was gassed at the end of last Saturday night’s 38-29 loss at Boise State has the difficult turnaround of facing this attack on a short practice week.
The difference in that offense? There are still a lot of option plays being run, but out of much different alignments – more “read option”, instead of “triple option”. This time around there is a legitimate passing game, and you just might be shocked to see the Falcons at #4 in the nation in passing efficiency, with only Marcus Mariota and Oregon averaging more yards per pass attempt. In Kyle Pearson there is not only the best passing QB at the Academy in decades, but also legitimate WRs that can get down the field. Jalen Robinette has caught 34 passes at 18.9 per reception, with four TDs, Garrett Brown 26 for 398 and six, and even TE Garrett Griffin has caught 14 at 16.2, with three scores. That renders Long’s history of defending this team as being a lesser factor in the overall equation, and makes this spread an overlay in a game that the Falcons should be in to the final possession.
This week at Point Blank:
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #12
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Tuesday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #11
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Wednesday - What if the Cav’s can’t guard…Prognosticating the Platoon…Tough to score, in Spokane…
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Thursday - What if Nebraska just isn’t “tough” enough…Those Maryland/Rutgers transitions…The Cav’s really can’t guard…Some Thursday value in Morgantown…
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