Point Blank – October 31
For the “W.R.”, it may really be about the “WR”
Expect Robert Griffin to be at QB when the Washington Redskins take the field against Minnesota on Sunday, continuing the carousel at the position in Jay Gruden’s first season at the helm. And while the Griffin/Kirk Cousins/Colt McCoy cycle has naturally garnered a lot of attention, there is another factor to absolutely have your eyes on as what should be the last step in the QB shuffle takes place – the Washington corps of wide receivers has been terrific, and shows hints of a significant upside. Let’s start with a tease, and then go to the details:
2014 Yards Per Pass:
McCoy/Cousins 8.7
Peyton Manning 8.5
Aaron Rodgers 8.4
Tony Romo 8.3
Philip Rivers 8.2
If a pair of backups that may never again be seen as NFL starters are outdistancing the league’s elite, then it begs the question – “How f’ing good are these WRs?” So let’s go to work.
The Redskins were way out of balance in the passing game LY – Pierre Garcon caught 113, more than twice as many as TE Jordan Reed, and nearly as many as the next four WR’s combined (120). An offense too dependent on one WR will struggle, especially if that one is not a game-breaker, and while Garcon is a solid veteran and excellent route-runner, he only averaged 11.9 per those catches, below his 13.0 career tally entering the season.
When your #1 WR does not open the field for others, naturally things become much easier for the opposing defenses, which can keep more players close to the line of scrimmage. So the franchise made a smart move in signing the explosive DeSean Jackson, and also the steady Andre Roberts, the kind of dynamic talents that can not only both make plays on their own, but also open up the field for others. And it has worked, perhaps much more than most realize because of the focus on the QBs.
At the midway point in the season, Jackson has caught 32 passes for 664 yards, an electric 20.8 per reception. Of players that caught at least 50 passes LY, the top was Josh Gordon at 18.9. In 2012 it was Vincent Jackson at 19.2. The gap between where Jackson is and those last two recent leaders in the category is significant. Meanwhile Roberts has caught 23 passes, and along with Jackson and Garcon, it makes three players in the rotation that have had 60+ receptions at least once over the last three campaigns. No other team can say that, So now let’s consider the overall impact in terms of team Yards Per Pass and YAC (Yards After Catch) compared to the other teams:
2013 2014
YPP #25 #1
YAC #17 #1
Washington has gone from below average in both categories to rating at the top this season. Let that fully sink in, because that was with 246 of 286 pass attempts coming from Cousins or McCoy. What does it tell us? That it is the second category that has been driving the first. These guys can make plays. Washington has 372 more YAC than the NFL average, an extra 46.5 yards per game.
Of course having such talent at WR also opens up passing lanes for the other positions – the TE tandem of Niles Paul and Jordan Reed has combined for 49 catches for 601 yards, and Roy Helu has grabbed 22 for 263 out of the backfield. That 12.0 per catch for Helu is particularly good for a RB, and again shows what can happen when Jackson is stretching the field.
Now there comes the adjustment issue of Griffin returning to the field. While he has precious little game time with Jackson and Roberts, Cousins and McCoy did not have much either, and they were able to make plays. This is a tremendous supporting cast for a QB to work with, and if Griffin is able to stay healthy, it is an offense with a serious upside.
Has “Peyton’s Place” changed?
It looks like weather has a chance to be a factor across the nation this weekend, and that means adding some dimensions to the handicapping approaches. One of those adjustments may be the most talked about of the weekend, with the Sports Mediaverse sure to bring up the old Peyton Manning numbers from bad weather games. But the key may be that they are “old” numbers, which was a discussion point during the weekly NFL podcast with R. J. Bell and Steve Fezzik, which you can find here - https://soundcloud.com/pregame/rjs-dream-pod-nfl-week-nine.
One of the most basic points brought up a month ago in a discussion of trends was understanding the relevance of the past, in regard to the current realities. That is what makes Manning’s poor track record in this category an intriguing case study. Yes, his numbers in cold-weather games have been dismal. But that absolutely must be connected to the fact that for his first 13 seasons, he played his home games in a domed stadium, and was in a warm-weather division. Naturally, one would expect such a QB to struggle when the conditions are harsh. But now Manning lives in Denver, where he has already spent a couple of winters, much of that on a football field. That means that breaking down Sunday’s game requires some judgment – were those past Manning issues something that is genuine for him, or merely the circumstances of the team that he was playing with? Do back-to-back seasons of a lot of outdoor winter practices (in 2012, the Broncos were home from December 17, until losing to the Ravens on January 12; this past season they were home from December 30, until they left for the Super Bowl nearly a full month later), have Manning much more ready to play well in this setting? But that is not all - there is also a football issue as well.
The offenses Manning has run with both the Colts and the Broncos have been based on timing routes, the literal example of “throwing a receiver open”. That type of passing game is ideal for a domed stadium and those perfect conditions, consistently putting defenders a step behind, but it is also one that will be impacted by wind and cold more than any other. Since he has moved west, have there been concessions made in the Bronco playbook to better deal with adverse conditions? That is also something that could provide a counterweight to those past performance numbers. Plenty of food for thought, and as this is written the Sunday forecast for Foxborough is for a temperature dipping into the 30’s by kickoff, with a chance of rain, and a blustery wind of 10-20 mph.
About Last Night…
Regardless of how anyone might feel about the behavior of Jameis Winston off the field, his poise in the latter stages of close games is something so very rare for a sophomore, and something for the handicapping files. In the second half against Notre Dame and Louisville he directed the Seminole offense to 56 points, completing 28-40 passes for 416 yards. As we all prepare to break down his games over the next decade or so, it is that calmness under pressure that may mean even more than his physical tools. When leaders stay strong under pressure (the Tom Brady’s and Aaron Rodgers’ of the world), it absolutely sets a tone for the rest of the team.
In the Sights…
On Wednesday there was a prime topic about understanding how a single play can impact the outcome of a game in a huge way, and also about learning how to interpret the ebbs and flows in terms of what the possibilities were in any given game (“The Play’s the Thing” - /pregame-forums/f/14/t/1073456.aspx). An interesting market move on Thursday now presents an opportunity to put those notions into play, with South Carolina becoming available at -5.5.
Steve Spurrier’s team fell completely out of favor in that dismal opening loss to Texas A&M, and even further when fourth-quarter leads of 13 vs. Missouri and 14 vs. Kentucky turned into defeats. Measured at their worst, the Gamecocks have had problems. But when you sort through those flows, there has also been some tremendous football. They stood absolutely toe-to-toe with Georgia and Auburn, a 1-1 split on the scoreboard despite a -4 turnover margin. And had Mike Davis been fully healthy, their end-game offense would have likely closed out Kentucky.
The key is that Davis is healthy now, and was a big factor in the offense rolling to 30 first downs and 535 yards at Auburn. Yet that performance did not resonate with the markets, who have now reduced the Carolina tariff to -5.5 against Tennessee for Saturday night. The puts the Volunteers into a price range that will be a challenge for them. An SEC night game is not the ideal setting for a team with only three SRs on the two-deep, and with 12 freshmen or sophomores starting physical fatigue is a major issue, having taken on physical Mississippi and Alabama teams the past two weeks. Three straight difficult outings can stretch a young team that lacks both experience and depth to a breaking point. Contrast that with the Gamecocks, who were off three weeks ago, coasted two back vs. Furman, and showed their freshness vs. Auburn. Instead of wearing down late this time, don’t be surprised if they reverse their earlier-season pattern, and become the ones breaking a game open in the latter stages.