Point Blank – October 28
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #8
The NFL Week that Was, and some key ideas that you can make part of your own handicapping portfolio for the pointspread battles ahead…
Item - Colt McCoy is 36-42, so now what?
McCoy was treated harshly in this column last week, and despite the outstanding performance at Dallas the long-term prognosis does not change much; while he was able to complete a couple of throws downfield against the Cowboys, his limitations in that category make it difficult to put him behind center every Sunday. But now the conundrum for Jay Gruden – what about this Sunday, especially if Robert Griffin is healthy enough to go, which is the expectation? Does he disrupt an offense that has a little momentum, especially against a beatable opponent? And is the bye week after facing Minnesota the better time to make a change?
If the Redskins can get past the Vikings, the first game after the bye is at home against Tampa Bay. That means a realistic chance to get back to .500, and a schedule that closes with three straight division games can have them legitimately in a playoff hunt. If there is something that has been established in Griffin’s absence, it is that the WR corps when healthy is such a dynamic one that there is real upside ahead. DeSean Jackson is at 20.8 per reception after 32 catches, while Pierre Garcon, Niles Paul and Andre Roberts have combined for 90 receptions. This is a terrific group, and as a team the Redskins have been credited with 1,200 yards-after-catch through seven games, a phenomenal count.
The flip side to Monday night is also something that was discussed here last Tuesday – despite that recent ascent to the top of the NFC East, the Dallas defense may have only gone from awful to below average, if even that. They were historically bad in 2013, but despite all of those wins, are they really any better? Let’s isolate some key categories -
2013 2014
Completion %: 64.7 66.4
Yards Per Pass: 7.8 7.4
Yards Per Rush: 4.7 4.8
Sack %: 5.2 3.4
Going from the antiquated designs of Monte Kiffin to Rod Marinelli’s schemes will be an upgrade, but the talent pool on that side of the ball is a shallow one. The points allowed have dropped because the offense has been controlling the ball more, allowing 57.6 plays per game to the opposition, down from 67.8 in 2013. But when the other side does snap the ball, the defense has not really been any better at all.
Item: 88 Eagle plays, 62 Passes, 24 LeSean McCoy touches
When you see 27 first downs and 521 yards, on the road against a good defense, the first instinct is to believe that a team played a good offensive game. But that may not have been the case for the Eagles on Sunday. Those total counts get reduced down by the fact that they had 88 snaps. And when 88 snaps only generate two TDs, including a one-play 54-yard drive when Nick Foles found Jeremy Maclin behind the Arizona defense, it suddenly does not look so good at all. In fact, it raises some major questions.
Coming off of a bye, LeSean McCoy was fresh, and the Eagle OL was healthier than it has been since the start of the season. McCoy carried 21 times for 83 yards against a defense that had allowed the fewest rushing yards of any team in the league coming in, a decent showing. But why only 21 carries, and only three pass receptions, for one of the best RBs in the NFL? With added time to prepare, what in Chip Kelly’s belief system called for Nick Foles to put it up 62 times? And that is where the inefficiency came in – even with that strike to Maclin it was a 75.4 Passer Rating for Foles, his second-worst of the season. Why put so much on his shoulders, on the road in that environment? And this was on the heels of a game in which the Eagle offense had their best running game of the season, rolling up 203 yards at 5.6 per carry in that 27-0 rout of the Giants. Yes, having the lead wire-to-wire against New York helped to dictate that game flow, but until the final possession, there was never a scoreboard desperation at Arizona.
The fact that the run/pass ratio looked out of balance brings attention to the issue, but it is when McCoy openly questions it that a deeper look needs to be taken. His post-game comments, when asked if he expected that flow - "No, no, no. I didn't expect that at all. But every week is different. The week before that we pounded it. … We were wearing them down with the run. We were gashing them. Our guys up front were better than their guys.”
For some reason, Kelly did not share that opinion. Foles has already had the best season he is ever going to have as a passer – he may never even come close to the 119.2 Passer Rating of LY, with 27 TDs vs. two INTs. It was not so much his skills as the designs of that Kelly playbook, which opponents were seeing for the first time. Now as the 2014 season nears the mid-point it is an 80.7 PR, with yards-per-pass down from 9.1 to 6.8, and nine INTs already. Meanwhile McCoy can be as good as any RB in the game when given the opportunity. Why those opportunities were not granted on Sunday is something that there will be attempts to sort out as this week progresses.
Item: No Geno, they don’t
”Those things do happen.” That was a post-game comment by Geno Smith after his disastrous performance in Sunday’s 43-23 drubbing vs. Buffalo, the worst performance by a QB in NFL history. Smith was only in the game long enough to throw eight passes, three of which were caught by Bills defenders, and the only two completions went for just five yards anyway. All of that made that particular post-game conversation fascinating. A game like that does not “happen” to a QB; he has to be the catalyst. Smith was.
But while the historical nature of that ineptitude will make the headlines, it was not the only key storyline coming from that game. Next is the fact that Michael Vick, who has been named the starter for this week, is also not going to be the answer. Vick has an awful 48.2 Passer Rating this season, and has been sacked seven times in only 63 drop-backs, with four fumbles. Without the burst that he had from his legs when younger, he is not much of an option, which leaves the Jets without a QB for either the present, or the future. Rex Ryan has done a good job of motivating his players to go hard in the past, but this time that task will be much more difficult.
But before signing off on that result as all anti-Jets, the takeaway from the offense on the other side of the field should be nowhere near what the scoreboard stamped…
Item: Sammy Watkins 3-157, other Bills 50-123
Watkins caught an 84-yard bomb that should have been a TD, had he not slowed down to showboat, and he also broke a short pass for a 61-yard TD. And outside of that it was a dismal showing for a team that scored 43 points. On plays on which Watkins did not catch a pass the Buffalo offense checked in at a tick under 2.5 per snap. And remember back to Friday’s column, when it was noted that Kyle Orton had been sacked 11.5 percent more often than any other starting QB? Orton dropped back 21 times, and four of them ended in sacks. He has now been sacked on 10.8 percent of all pass plays, yet the Bills are 3-1 with him as the starter.
As for replacing Fred Jackson and CJ Spillar, the combination of Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown could only grind out 59 yards in 29 rush attempts, and neither of them caught a pass. So do we excuse this as a case of a team playing conservatively with a lead? That would be a mistake - three times in the first half, when the game was competitive, the Bills were given the ball either at the 50 or in Jet territory, and could not manage a first down. The win was a gut-out, not a thing of beauty, and now they have to hope that the bye week brings the return of either of their lead RBs. As for Orton’s mobility, at his age it is not going to get any better.
Item: Carolina, and trying to patch an OL together
Two weeks ago there was a take here on how well Cam Newton had played at Cincinnati. On Sunday he registered a 60.6 Passer Rating, and also lost a fumble. Why did his play fall off so badly? The truth is that it really hasn’t – he did about as well as he could, with the group that was blocking in front of him.
The development of the Dallas OL has been an emerging story this season – put three legitimate first-round draft choices into the same mix, and you can have something special. But what is the end result with an OL that only had one player drafted at all? Not pretty. And that is what the Panthers had up front for much of Sunday’s game? Byron Bell, Andrew Norwell, Ryan Kalil, Fernando Velasco and Nate Chandler started, but David Foucault had to play because both Bell and Chandler sat out part of the game with injuries. Kalil is legitimate, having made multiple Pro Bowls, but he also happens to be the only one in the entire group that was a draft choice. Norwell and Foucault are rookie free agents (although Norwell actually played well on Sunday). Bell is trying to hold down LT after not playing the other side with distinction LY. Chandler played DT in college, then a stint at RG, before moving to RT. Velasco is with his third team in as many seasons.
It just is not much of a group, in terms of quality or chemistry. You can develop the latter, over time, but without the former, there obviously is a limit to the upside. And given the short week before the Panthers take on New Orleans Thursday night, the status of Bell and Chandler should be monitored closely - if either can not go, it will be even more difficult for Newton to get breathing room.
Item: Cleveland really misses Alex Mack
And now for more on OL struggles, an issue that may lack sex appeal in the Sports Mediaverse, but absolutely matters on the scoreboards. A couple of weeks ago there was a take on the Browns losing Mack, their Pro Bowl center and anchor, which focused on their ability to successfully fill in for him. John Greco would move over from RG, and Paul McQuistan, who started 14 games for Seattle and grabbed a Super Bowl ring LY, would play RG. That notion was dead wrong.
The offense struggled so badly in an ugly loss to Jacksonville that those plans were scrapped. Nick McDonald, who only has four career starts, and last played in 2012, was signed to play center, with Greco being moved back to RG, and McQuistin to the bench. And that did not work either. The Cleveland ground game, which had been one of the major surprises through the early stages of the season, was stuffed to just 39 yards on 25 carries vs. Oakland. That is more than 100 yards below the 145.3 per game the Raiders had been allowing.
In two games without Mack, it has been 108 rushing yards at 1.9 per attempt, with Brian Hoyer getting sacked four times. Fortunately for the Browns they draw Tampa Bay this week, and then a bye, which will at least give McDonald a chance to learn the system. But for now this is an offense nowhere near the early-season numbers, and it really makes us appreciate Mack.
Item: The Ravens might really miss Jimmy Smith
Let’s talk about another injury that might not make headlines, but could matter in a big way on the field – especially the way that Ben Roethlisberger and the Steeler passing game are clicking right now. The Ravens will be without CB Jimmy Smith for at least this Sunday, but most likely will not get him back until after their bye, because of a sprained foot.
Smith was on his way to a likely Pro Bowl appearance, and now joins Asa Jackson on the sidelines from that position. Unless someone is signed this week, the rotation is down to Lardarius Webb, still not back to form following a back injury; Dominique Franks, who re-signed on October 7 after being cut back in August; and Chykie Brown, who has been inactive the last two weeks.
How bad are the numbers? There is a degree of subjectivity with some of the pass defense metrics, but according to the team stats, QBs have completed just 51.3 percent of their throws when targeting Smith, with a 51.5 Passer Rating, compared to 64.7 percent and 105.2 vs. the other CBs. It is going to make for some difficult matchups against that Pittsburgh WR corps. Speaking of which…
Item: Sidebars, from Big Ben’s Big Day
The Steelers may have been as much fortunate as good in that win over Houston last Monday night, but sometimes that is the kind of sequence that can spark a team in need of one. And Ben Roethlisberger’s afternoon was one for the ages, 40-49-522 with six TDs. He deserves accolades, and will get them from the rest of the Sports Mediaverse, but there are other stories in play that might otherwise be ignored.
First the good, for the Steelers – the emergence of Martavis Bryant. The rookie from Clemson saw his first action last Monday, and in two games has seven receptions, going for 123 yards (17.6) and three TDs. Antonio Brown does not need much help getting open these days (60-852-7 already), but he and Markus Wheaton are both just 5-11, which makes the 6-4 Bryant the kind of puzzle piece that adds a genuine dimension to the offense.
Then the bad, for the Colts. First is the fact that they had no way of replacing CB Vontae Davis, which is something to follow closely going forward. But then there is that issue of giving seven carries to RBs the entire game. Yes, out of 57 snaps, only seven times did Andrew Luck hand the ball off. Of course they spent the last 52:13 of the game playing from behind. But without keeping the running game as any kind of factor it put far too much on the shoulders of Andrew Luck, and for as talented as those shoulders are, there were a pair of INTs and a pair of sacks.
That play calling was significant because the Colts had not trailed since September 15, a span of 307:47 of game time. With three wins coming by 24 points or more, the game flows may have created a misleading notion that they trust their ground game more than they really do. This is a key storyline to follow, especially as they take to the road for a Monday night game, the kind of setting in which a team needs to run to both quiet the crowd, and slow down the opposing pass rush (albeit the latter not being a Giant strength so far this season).
Item: Are the Rams at a precipice?
The Rams entered Sunday’s game at Kansas City off of what should have been a confidence-boosting win over Seattle, with a chance to turn their season around. And they played a decent first half, locked in a 7-7 tie until Cairo Santos nailed a 53-yard field goal on the final play. But then Knile Davis opened the third quarter with a kickoff return for a TD, making it 10 KC points on two plays, and the remainder of the afternoon was something we are not accustomed to seeing from a Jeff Fisher team – they simply did not respond. It was a 17-0 wipeout for the Chiefs the rest of the way, with the Rams only getting beyond their own 28-yard line once.
There were some excuses for the bad play – injuries took a major toll. Three members of the OL, Scott Wells, Jake Long and Roger Saffold, left and did not return. WR Brian Quick was lost, as was DE Williams Hayes, as well as Cody Davis and Rodney McLeod from the secondary. But while that can certainly explain the collapse in Kansas City, how about a three-game cycle in which they have been out-scored 65-10 in the second half?
Even in the Seattle win, the Rams were pushed around after halftime. Davis is not going to be the long-term answer at QB. As noted earlier in the season, the defense has taken a clear step back under Gregg Williams, and the numbers are becoming more clear – opposing running plays are gaining a full yard per attempt more than in 2013 (4.7 vs. 3.7), QB Passer Ratings have elevated from 94.6 to 106.0, and Sack Percentage has fallen at a mind-numbing rate, from 9.2 to 2.8. In the middle of perhaps the toughest schedule stretch any team will face this season (at Kansas City, at San Francisco and at Arizona in succession), there is a real chance that things get worse, instead of better.
Vegas…
As the hardwoods now come into play the usual Monday session with the Review-Journal NFL box score page needed to be centered around the downtown corridor, following the annual trip to the Gambler’s Book Store (plenty of Blue Ribbon’s on the shelf, but a disappointing lack of NBA materials). And when in that area there is a terrific option to not only lay those box scores out in a booth, but to also lunch well, at Viva Las Arepas (1616 South Las Vegas Blvd), another of those personal favorites that can be labeled as a “hidden gem”. This is the work of Felix Arellano, a Venezuelan who takes a lot of pride in the food from his birthplace, and has been the classic success story of someone that started with a small vision, in this case a food cart a block north of the current location, and worked hard enough to make bigger things happen.
Here is the gist – while many times there is a lament that dishes that are sampled around the world can not be found at the same standard when one comes home, the arepas that Felix puts out are better than anything I ever came across over a series of forays into Venezuela about a decade ago (a Sports Book project that would have made a lot of money given the passions of that populace, especially for baseball, but very little of which Hugo Chavez was ever going to allow to leave the country, which brought it all to a standstill). It is a combination of Felix having that pride to showcase his culture that means better ingredients in play, and fortunately for us, more of those ingredients stuffed into the corn cakes than one would find on a street corner in Carracas. There are a variety of arepas on the menu (roasted pork, and black beans with cheese, hit the table this week), but you can also get terrific wood-fired chicken and ribs, and an array of South American side dishes, at a price point that also makes for “best bet” status.