Point Blank – October 24
Key NFL QB Dances: The “Tennessee Waltz”, and a “Shuffle off to Buffalo”
There is some pointspread intrigue ahead on this NFL board, with a couple of key QB situations that the markets may not be reading properly. And since they both revolve around the key number of “3”, it means possible opportunity. So let’s to get to work.
At first glance, you should find the timing of Zack Mettenberger being given the starting QB spot by Ken Whisenhunt for the Titans a bit odd. It would seem that they could gut out one more game from veteran Charlie Whitehurst, and then go in to next week’s bye with plenty of time for Jake Locker to heal. And even if Locker was not ready to come back in two weeks vs. Baltimore, wouldn’t a bye week be a better time to get a rookie ready for his first start? Unless there is more in play, which just may be the case. Mettenberger may have been handed the car keys far beyond the initial appearances, with Locker’s days as the Tennessee starter numbered.
First, be prepared to like Mettenberger. He will not be a sprinter out of the gate on Sunday, having spent a good part of the season at #3, not #2, but there is upside. Do not be misled by the fact that he was a #6 pick back in May – before he suffered a torn ACL last November he was as high as the #2 QB on some respected draft boards, and projected as a late first-rounder. But that injury, and some murky details concerning a diluted urine sample at the February scouting combine, scared many teams away.
Here is the key – Mettenberger has a strong arm and can make the kind of downfield throws that are a big part of the Whisenhunt playbook. What has been Locker’s prime weakness? Accuracy on those very throws. With the Titans having spent high draft picks on WRs Kendall Wright (#1 in 2012) and Justin Hunter (#2 in 2013) in recent drafts, on top of the coaching hire, they have staked themselves to a direction. This particular timing may indicate that Whisenhunt has seen enough from his rookie QB in practice (once Locker went down, it meant the chance for Mettenberger to get some work with the first-team over the past month, and then the bulk of it this week) to now set the long-term direction of his team. This is a coaching move that has not been forced, but rather made voluntarily, and there are indeed some politics behind that. It is easier to phase Locker out now, than it would be after he returned to the starting role.
So what does it mean this week? The markets have reacted harshly in taking Houston to -3, with -120 attached in some key precincts, making a 3.5 likely on Sunday. While there is indeed the proper hesitancy to back a rookie in his first start, the Texans hardly bring the form to be this kind of road favorite off of a short week. Once again a defense that has relied on Brian Cushing as a cornerstone in the past will be without him, and for as terrific as J. J. Watt has been individually this season, the pass rush is only #22 in sacks-per-attempt, which will not overwhelm Mettenberger.
So how do you handle a setting with a young QB that obviously brings degrees of uncertainty and volatility? Money management. If you find a good price come Sunday you can play, you just keep the wager lower because of the inherent issues involved.
Meanwhile, about a $25 cab ride across the river from “42nd Street”…
OK, Google the reference if you have to. But understanding Kyle Orton’s relative abilities also brings some prospects to this board. When Doug Marrone inserted him ahead of E. J. Manuel prior to facing savvy Detroit and New England defenses it made sense at the time – the Buffalo offense needed more of a veteran presence at QB, to better manage a game instead of necessarily stepping up to make plays. And while the Bills have gone 2-1 since then, it has been anything but a ringing success – those were precarious end-games to escape vs. the Lions and Vikings
The Bills got a major break at Detroit when Calvin Johnson could play only half of the game, with a pair of missed Lion FGs also leaving the door open just wide enough. Then that final TD drive vs. Minnesota last Sunday, which was a choreography worthy of a Tony Award. Consecutive first downs were generated out of fourth-and-20, third-and-12, and second-and-20 settings, and those conversions left just enough time for Orton to find Sammy Watkins in the end zone with 0:01 remaining.
So while their have been wins, Orton has not necessarily been an upgrade. But here is where the plot twists – would Manuel actually be the better option against the Jets this week? Fred Jackson and C. J. Spiller are out, their 526 rushing yards and 47 receptions for 370 more going with them, the latter being a big part of the playbook. Replacing them are journeymen Antony Dixon and Bryce Brown, neither of them major threats as receivers out of the backfield, which brings a significant degree of uncertainty. How about this ringing statement of confidence from Marrone on Wednesday, when asked about the likely rotation - "You know, I don't really know that yet. It's not like we sit down and we say that. We're going to look at practice and set the plan and see where it goes. A lot of times that's dictated by the things that go on in the game also, depending on what your plan is. I really can't say how we want to do it right now.”
In other words, this may not be a week for Orton to be a game manager, but rather one in which he needs to step up and make plays, and that is not his forte. So consider this – while his Passer Rating of 92.5 has exceeded Manuel’s 80.3, he has been sacked on 9.5 percent of his drop-backs, vs. only 4.4 for Manuel. Want more perspective? Orton has been sacked 11.5 percent more frequently than any other current starting QB. And most of those sacks occurred when Jackson or Spiller were in the backfield.
OK, you say, how can that matter because of the Jet pass defense, which has allowed a hideous 108.3 rating to opposing QBs. How about 18 TD passes vs. only one INT? Shouldn’t even Orton be able to maneuver through that? Be careful with the numbers. This is not a good New York pass defense, but it has a chance to be average, and those unsightly current bottom lines will change in a major way over the rest of the season. So far it has been more the luck of the draw than their own foibles – it has been four games against Pure “A” QBs (Brady, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers), and a pair against the “B” class (Cutler, Stafford). The only other game was against Oakland, who the Jets limited to 85 yards until a meaningless TD drive on the final possession.
In taking to the road without two talented RBs available, the Buffalo offense might genuinely be better off with Manuel at QB. That will not happen, which could make this a Sunday in which it is easy to see why no team even had Orton around to throw a pass in the pre-season this past August. And also a setting in which one can get ahead of the curve as those New York defensive numbers begin their correction, especially if -2.5 shows (there are indications).