Point Blank – September 29
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #5
The NCAA Week that Was, and things you can incorporate into your own thought processes as the season unfolds…
Item – That young ASU Defense
Last Thursday there was an “In the Sights…” take on the issues a young Arizona State defense brought to the table (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1047993.aspx). There was not a unit in a power conference with less game experience entering the season, and the statistics pretty much tell the tale – they allowed UCLA to average 10.0 yards per play, a stunning number at that level of competition. But that was not all. Since many of you may have relied on that box score, instead of staying up late to watch the game, the single-most important swing of the evening came when the Sun Devil defense was not on the field, yet actually played a major role in the proceedings.
It was still anyone’s game nearing the end of the first half, when ASU trailed 20-17 and had a 1st-and-10 at the UCLA 15-yard line. The problem is that the Sun Devils were out of timeouts, so after an ill-conceived QB draw on 1st down, Marc Bercovici had to spike the ball to stop the clock and waste a down. Todd Graham decided to gamble on one more play, instead of sending in the FG team to tie the game, despite the fact that an ASU ball carrier stopped anywhere short of the goal line would have ended the half. Bercovici, perhaps feeling too much pressure because of where that play had to go, threw a bad pass that Ishamel Adams picked off and returned 95 yards for a TD. The Sun Devils took that snap down 20-17; the next time the offense touched the ball it was 34-17.
A timeout certainly could have made that situation much easier, but as noted above, there were none. The problem is because of that young roster they had to burn two TOs on defense in the first half, and one more on special teams. That is a direct result of the inexperience, and the defense should be penalized for the sequence. Contemporary box scores do not delineate between offensive and defensive penalties; it can be worth your time to sort through the play-by-play tallies for those key details.
Item: Virginia Tech, Michael Brewer, and bad INTs
There was a lot of optimism at Virginia Tech after that upset win over Ohio State in Columbus, fantasies of a return to “Beamer Ball”, and a possible run to be one of the Final Four. With Florida State not on the agenda until a possible ACC Championship game matchup, it was a somewhat reasonable dream. Midnight struck pretty early on all of that, with a 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS tally since then, losing to the spread by 29.5 points. And to understand why takes us back to one of the early lessons from these pages for the 2014 season, and a “Things Not to Like” take – all QBs throw interceptions, but some are much worse than others. When a QB throws INTs in favorable game situations, time to hoist a red flag.
For the season Michael Brewer has 10 INTs, vs. only nine TD passes. That is a bad ratio the way the sport is played in 2014. But considering that seven of those picks came in three games with Tech favored by -7.5 or more, and another against out-manned William & Mary, it is even worse. Brewer threw an INT with the lead against W&M in the opener. The pair vs. East Carolina can be excused a bit, because he trailed 0-7 the first time the offense took the field, and it was 0-14 after they had only been on the field for three plays. But the last two weeks have brought some ugly moments.
The Hokies were on the verge of breaking the game open against Georgia Tech in the ACC opener, leading 13-3 and having the ball for what should have been the last possession of the first half, knowing that they would also have the first possession of the second half. It was a setting that called for good game management, but Brewer made a bad decision and threw an INT at the GT 30-yard line. That led to a Yellow Jacket TD drive, and instead of VT taking command, the momentum of the game changed. Brewer and the Hokies still had the lead at 16-10 in the 4th quarter when he threw a “Pick-Six”, which created a 17-16 deficit. And than tied 24-24 at 2:03, Brewer threw his third INT, which set the stage for GT to kick a game-winning FG on the final play.
Off of those disastrous sequences, Brewer and the offense badly needed a clean game vs. out-manned Western Michigan on Saturday. They did not get it. There was absolutely no game pressure on the offense – it was 8-0 before they even took the field. Yet Brewer went on to throw a pair of INTs, when up by 11-0 and 18-7.
Even in the win at Ohio State the Hokies never trailed, so eight of Brewer’s September INTs came either with the lead or tied. That is awful game management, and something that should be in your field of vision as a series of competitive matchups dot the Virginia Tech cycle ahead. But do not put it all on Brewer – there should also be a mistrust of OC Scott Loeffler as well. His one season in that role at Auburn in 2012 was a failure, and he did not do a good job of developing Logan Thomas in his first campaign in Blacksburg. His abilities remain an open question.
Item: Christian Hackenberg misses Bill O’Brien
The link between coaching and QB development is so integral at the NCAA level, as evidenced by the Loeffler/Brewer issues above. But perhaps nowhere is it as evident as at Penn State. When doing a radio spot last fall I was asked about Hackenburg and offered the following – “If Bill O’Brien sticks around for four years, Hackenberg will be the next Tom Brady.” And such can be the perils of being in a public arena, especially in this social media age, because someone could easily take the last half of the statement and create ridicule – Hackenberg has not looked anything like a Brady clone this season. Hence, why that first element about O’Brien is so essential.
As a freshman in 2013 Hackbenberg threw for 2,955 yards, with 20 TD passes against only 10 INTs. The numbers do not do him full justice because of the usual growing pains he had to work through, but by the end of the season the tutelage of O’Brien was showing – Hackenberg's 21-30-339 yards and four TDs in a 31-24 upset of Wisconsin in the final game, given the setting (the Nittany Lions were 25-point underdogs at post), was one of the better performances by an NCAA QB all season. But through five 2014 games it has not been progress - his completion percentage is down, and there have been six INTs vs. only four TD passes, despite not facing an opponent that will still have their pads on when New Year’s Day 2015 comes around.
James Franklin will have a terrific run in State College – he brings a different energy than O’Brien, something that will make him one of the better recruiters in the nation. But while a weak OL is absolutely a mitigating factor (two former DL in the starting lineup), the offensive designs from Franklin and OC John Donovan are a step below what O’Brien had supplied. In the three toughest challenges, vs. UCF, Rutgers and Northwestern, it has been four INTs vs. only 1 TD pass, and that bears watching as the schedule picks up.
Item: Clemson, and the Deshaun Watson era
Why not something warm an uplifting, after discussing QBs with issues? Deshaun Watson has a chance to be special, if he is not that already. Watson was a major recruiting coup for Dabo Swinney, having been rated as high as the #3 player in the nation (Tom Lemming), the #16 player and #1 dual-threat QB (ESPN.com), and 1st-team Parade and 2nd team USA Today All-American. He brought so much ability that Swinney chose to not red-shirt him, and he was thrown into the fire for a short stint on the road at Georgia, and then a longer one at Florida State.
Athens and Tallahassee can be frightening places for a true freshman, yet Watson accounted himself well – 21-32 for 325 yards with no INTs, leading three TD drives. And when there was a chance to step down in class vs. South Carolina State he was almost flawless, an 8-9-154 with three TDs. Saturday night marked the first time he opened a game as the starter, and unless he ends up in an NFL uniform before his eligibility expires, this could be one of the truly great rides in the NCAA annals. That is not meant to be hyperbole.
All Watson did against North Carolina was complete 27-36 passes for 435 yards and six TDs. Yes, that is a bad Tar Heel defense, but there were plays being made beyond the scope of many defenses to cope. Because of the designs of Chad Morris, and the talent the Tigers have consistently been able to have at the support positions (four WRs, two RBs and two TEs on NFL rosters), this offense can get taken to a level that makes them awfully difficult to defend – five different Tigers had a reception of at least 27 yards, and four caught TD passes. The presence of Watson will make it even easier to recruit top-flight skill players the next couple of seasons, and this will be a dynamic situation to watch.
Item: Tears for Charlie Weis
Yes, there was a tear forming when the news came out of Lawrence on Sunday morning, but they were not of sympathy for Weis. Rather it was the loss of potential for our own bankroll, having had our last opportunity to take advantage of one of the great Sports Mediaverse charades of this millennium. For a guy given the mantle of being a great offensive mind, the reality was that he was not only not that, but certainly not someone that could develop a program as a head coach.
The Weis resume had never been anything special until given a chance to run the New England offense right around the time that Tom Brady was coming on board. As it turns out, it was Brady who happened to be rather good, not necessarily the playbook, and a Hall of Fame career has been built across a series of OCs. But that showing were good enough to get Weis the Notre Dame job, where he inherited another Brady, this time Brady Quinn, to make him look better than he was. Quinn, and the remnants of a good recruiting class from Ty Willingham, helped Weis to get off to a 7-1 SU and ATS run in his first season in South Bend, and the media rush was on. Remember that 60 Minutes piece? But from that point until Sunday’s dismissal, it was a 30-48-1 ATS slide, one of the worst we will ever see for any coach through that long of a cycle. That included a Notre Dame season for the ages in 2007, when the Fighting Irish could only go 3-9 SU, with seven of the losses by 13 points or more.
After being fired by Notre Dame there were inauspicious short tours as OC of the Kansas City Chiefs, then back in the NCAA ranks at Florida, where the Gators finished #102 in total offense in 2011. There jut was not much to suggest that he had the ability to turn things around for Kansas, and the fact that the program let him go before it reached October speaks volumes.
Item: Stanford, and that power ground game
The Stanford formula under Jim Harbaugh, and now David Shaw, has been a consistent one, and the program has done an ideal job of bringing in players to make it go – run the football with power on offense, taking advantage of smaller defenses more designed to stop a spread passing attack, and play a physical defensive style that emphasizes pressure on opposing QBs. And when you see the box scores of those opening Pac 12 games, beating USC and Washington by 12 first downs and 377 yards, it might appear that all is in order. But not quite, and the one missing element has been most significant in terms of getting that production to the scoreboard – they lost 13-10 to USC, and were tied in the 4th quarter before escaping 20-13 at Washington.
The problem is that the ground game lacks the Toby Gerhart/Tyler Gaffney prototype, and nowhere has that been more evident than when the Cardinal have reached the red zone vs. those conference opponents. On 10 trips inside the Trojan and Husky 20 there have only been two TDs. The issue is plain to see - there is not a RB that has earned Shaw’s trust for the situation. On only 36 percent of the red zone snaps did a Stanford RB carry the ball, and September ends with 16 quarters having been played, but no individual RB reaching 30 carries.
It may not get much better because the potential is limited. Through Barry Sanders has a little bit of burst, averaging 7.1 per carry, he will never be near his father’s level, and at 5-10/192 is not a prototype to play every down in the Cardinal playbook. The same came be said for Remound Wright, at 5-9/204, and Kelsey Young at 5-10/195. But now the real problem – Wright and Young are seniors, and Sanders a junior. The recent recruiting classes simply have not produced a player to take that key lead role.
Perhaps the most telltale sign of all was that the winning TD on Saturday was scored on a designed run by QB Kevin Hogan. At the time it had been one TD on nine red zone trips, and the previous TD had come on a pass play. Stanford is going to do a lot of things right, with that defense as good as any in the land, but because short yardage and red zone settings are going to be a challenge, the scores may remain short of the stats. With the first major road test of the season at hand, that issue goes under the microscope this week.
Item: FIU 34 UAB 20
Good performances from the Golden Panthers in the Ron Turner era have been rather rare – the school may regret for many years the mishandling of the Mario Cristobal situation. So after heading into Saturday’s home game vs. UAB at 2-14 under Turner, including losing to Bethune-Cookman each season, the upset vs. the -14 Blazers could be introduced into evidence as a turning point. If you see someone doing that, fire off an immediate – “Objection: assumes facts not in evidence”, because rarely has a team gotten so much on the scoreboard, while having accomplished so little on the field.
FIU hit a pair of home run passes, TDs of 85 yards from Alex McGough to Glenn Coleman, and 75 from McGough to Jonnu Smith (the latter only a bubble screen in the flat on a 2nd-and-21 that broke open). But the other 59 offensive snaps managed only seven first downs and 137 yards, and they converted only 4-17 3rd downs. That is simply awful, vs. that class of defense. There was not a single run of more than nine yards, and outside of the two bust-out plays, no other pass completion went for more than 11 (McGough was 7-22 for 44 yards on all other attempts). They also committed 10 penalties. But there were many gifts from the sloppy Blazers, who turned the ball over six times, including a pair of “Pick-Sixes”. Is it possible that a 14-point dog that wins by 14 outright could actually be downgraded? You may not have to go that far, but you certainly do not raise their rating off of that showing.
Item: The psyche of the Cal defense, Part II
Last week in this space there was an open question concerning the psyche of California, after that gut-wrenching defeat at Arizona. And the failures of that previous Saturday night did linger to the field vs. Colorado – even with a major revenge motive the Golden Bears were fortunate to escape with that 59-56 win in overtime, never sniffing the -13.5 pointspread. But while the team can at least celebrate ending a Pac 12 losing streak that dated back to October of 2012, that defense may bear (literally) even closer watching this week.
The Cal defense was on the field for 107 plays at Arizona, and was simply gassed in allowing 36 fourth-quarter points. The Golden Bears carried that fatigue into the Colorado game, allowing 39 first downs and 629 yards vs. a mediocre offense, and after being extended through those OT sessions the play count reached 110. That makes it 217 over the past two Saturday’s, the highest count for back-to-back games in NCAA history.
Fatigue is enough of an issue for good teams, but for lesser units it can be magnified. Arizona and Colorado combined for 105 points, 75 first downs and 1,256 yards, which will make instilling any kind of confidence into the defense for this week’s road trip to Washington State a huge task for HC Sonny Dykes and DC Art Kaufman. There is also the physical issue – how much can be accomplished in practice when the legs simply are not there?
Item: More Defensive fatigue - Vanderbilt
One of the conundrums involved when a team has a major negative in snap differential is the old “Offense needs to control the ball more/Defense needs to get off the field” issue. Understanding which one is the real culprit can help you to better define a team, and take advantage going forward. For Derek Mason in his first year at Vanderbilt, that task is an easy one. Regardless of which of four QBs has been on the field, the Commodore offense has been a mess.
Vandy plays the second of back-to-back SEC road games this week, a tough trip to Georgia, and through the first three conference games the Commodores are a staggering -84 in offensive snaps. That is an average of seven extra plays for the opposition per quarter, a full extra possession. It is difficult to compete against that kind of imbalance, although the 2-1 ATS mark through those games may keep the pointspreads somewhat within reason.
It is not just the rigors of SEC play, however – even against Temple and Massachusetts it was a combined -29 snaps. And that brunt falls on an offense that that is averaging only 13 first downs per game. The Commodores neither run nor pass well enough to hang on to the ball and give the defense a break, and as they head into October the offense has only scored five TDs, while the defense and special teams have contributed six.
The Vanderbilt defense played with a lot of grit at Kentucky, shutting the Wildcats out in the second half and only allowing them to reach the 20 in the final minute, when the Wildcats were running out the clock. But how much grit can be in that cupboard?
Item: Those UNLV “injuries”
Because of the NCAA restrictions on information being provided to media sources, the news on injuries is a guessing game many weeks. But there will rarely be an example as good as that of UNLV last week, right in the shadows of the Las Vegas media and Sports Books, where having the clearest information possible is a major goal.
Bobby Hauck listed 31 Rebels in the injury report last week, and that is part of why San Diego State ran from as low as -15.5 to as high as -19 on the boards. But what was the reality of those reports? How about this, from Aztec coach Rocky Long – “The only surprise was when I saw an injury list of 31 guys, all of them played but one, I think.” Long was exaggerating, but only a little.
WR Marcus Sullivan and DB Mike Horsey were classified as “Out”. They played, with Sullivan catching three passes for 76 yards. The players listed under “Questionable” played. Even five of the six categorized under “Doubtful” played. Which is a reminder one more time about how you must take all of that info with a grain of salt. If that can happen under the Las Vegas neon, just imagine the prospects at Pullman, Waco, Starkville and so many outposts with limited media spotlights.