Point Blank – September 22
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #4
The NCAA Week that Was, and things you can incorporate into your own thought processes as the season unfolds…
Item: Kansas State’s missed FGs - you shouldn’t have “had to be there”
Many of you likely watched Bill Snyder’s frustrating loss to Auburn on Thursday night, in front of the ESPN cameras. There was one of those monster swing plays that turn the momentum of a game, a well-thrown pass from Jake Waters right into the hands of top Wildcat WR Tyler Lockett that turned into an end zone interception. And there were also three missed field goals. The former is something you have to dig through play-by-play charts to incorporate properly, if you were not watching the game. The latter is an issue that should be solved for you, but so far has not been.
NFL box scores have gotten better over the years at showing missed FGs, but not in the NCAA ranks – the “short form” boxes that you see in most newspapers do not include them, and even the NCAA’s own long-form team stats will not get you that info (http://www.ncaa.com/game/football/fbs/2014/09/18/auburn-kansas-st/team-stats) . That means taking the time for the even longer-form boxes that show the full individual player statistics, and then scrolling down to the kickers. That is a longer process than is necessary, but until the news sources correct this detail it is a necessary exercise. Those missed kicks were critical to Thursday’s game flow, and if you had not watched the game, and only upgraded your ratings off of the basic box scores, you would have fallen a step behind.
Item: As Michigan becomes Brady’s Bunch
There was a long weather delay in the fourth quarter of Michigan’s dismal 26-10 loss to Utah, and when play resumed there were not many Wolverine backers in the stands. Yet one had to wonder why any of them stuck around at all. Michigan did not manage an offensive TD in that defeat, a game kept closer by Utah QB Travis Wilson having to leave for most of the second quarter (the Utes managed only 39 yards on 20 snaps with him out, with back-up QB Kendal Thompson throwing a pick-six for the only Michigan TD).
The problem is that the Wolverines losing to a team from a power conference, and even not scoring an offensive TD, is no longer news. The tally against teams from power conferences is now 1-8 SU over the last nine, the only win being that semi-miracle rally to get Northwestern into OT, where the Wolverines finally escaped.This season it is an ugly 0-2, losses to Notre Dame and Utah by a combined 57-10, with the offense having 132 snaps without reaching the end zone, turning the ball over eight times in the process. The ground game has not shown much consistency, and Devin Gardner threw five INTs in those two defeats.
Here is the alarming issue for the program. That 11-2 joy-ride of 2011 brought a special euphoria, not only because they were winning, but that Brady Hoke seemed like the ideal mouthwash for the bad taste left by Rich Rodriguez. But Rodriguez also left some awfully good talent. Now it is season #4 for Hoke, with the roster filled with his own recruits, and while going from Al Borges to Doug Nussmeier as OC was a step in the right direction, there just does not look like a lot of upside from this bunch. As such, we have to be careful with a setting that would otherwise have us looking to “play on” – a supposedly good team, opening 0-3 ATS and losing to the spread by 54.5 in the process, could look attractive because of that -8 TO differential. Good teams clean those things up, creating a potential reversal ride. But this just may not be a good team.
Note that part of the -8 turnover issue was a -2 against Miami O., which can’t happen. It just can’t. Check your data-bases for the number of times that a home team favored by -30 or more goes -2 in that category. Not many, are there? Meanwhile the RedHawks are -5 in their other three games this season. Hence more cause for concern in Ann Arbor, and for those of us that would have ordinarily be looking to buy low on such a team. Meanwhile where was Nussmeier last? At Alabama, where there is also something to see on offense…
Item: Bama Offense, in the Fast “Lane”
A couple of weeks ago there was a take here on some early-season value can be found from teams bringing in key assistant coaches, something that often falls below the handicapping radar screens (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1033973.aspx). One of those highlighted was Lane Kiffin, partially because of his play-calling skills, but perhaps even more being the influence that Nick Saban can have on him. The latter will show more over time, but the former is in evidence already.
Although the phenomenal success the program has had under Saban has largely been attributed to those great defenses, there are also 14 Crimson Tide offensive players on active NFL rosters, plus A. J. McCarron at Cincinnati. The recruiting has also been outstanding on that side of the ball, and may get even better, but the tactics have been rather conservative. Not anymore. Kiffin has already done an outstanding job of isolating some of these big-time skill players in favorable settings (the opening snap vs. Florida being a clinic, exposing the speedy Kenyan Drake against a Florida LB for an easy 87-yard TD pass). The success is easy to see: 33 points, 30 first downs and 538 yards vs. West Virginia, then 42, 28 and 645 vs. Florida, the most yards ever given up by a Gator defense. But perhaps as important is the pacing. Alabama averaged 63.3 offensive snaps per game LY, but it was 82 vs. WVU and 87 vs. Florida (you can discount the other two games because they were not competitive).
You are not going to find bargains on Alabama as a side, especially off of Saturday’s domination. But the markets may struggle with Totals, and acknowledging that new pace that is in play. For several years there was a “free ride” on Alabama second half Under’s, with Saban a master at controlling tempo with a lead. The oddsmakers finally caught up with that, but at this point that particular legacy may not carry any meaning for Crimson Tide games.
Item: The Memphis pace changes
OK, so you probably have noticed the Alabama offensive changes. But how about in Memphis? Justin Fuente wanted to slow things down and tighten them up when he took over two years ago, with the program off of a dismal 5-31 run over the previous three seasons. Even in his second go-round LY it was only 66.6 offensive snaps per game. But now that there is better personnel on hand, and Fuente and OC Darrell Dickey are largely coaching their own recruits on offense (only four seniors on the two-deep on that side of the ball), it is a whole different ball game.
The Tigers have run off counts of 82, 81 and 86 so far, and the number in the middle is the most important, in terms of projecting ahead – that was at UCLA, where they chose to attack, instead of trying to slow the game down. The aggressiveness worked, in a game they competed to win outright in to the final possession (they had the ball in UCLA territory when the clock ran out on that 42-35 defeat). That means they are not likely to back down against Ole Miss on the road this week, which adds some intriguing handicapping wrinkles.
Item: How fragile is the California psyche?
You could not be blamed if you called it a day and signed off when California led 31-13 into the 4th quarter at Arizona, or perhaps you hung around until the Golden Bears scored to seemingly clinch it at 45-30 with 5:21 remaining. But if you checked out before the finish you missed a comeback for the ages, and also one that begs for some study in terms of evaluating Cal going forward (the Wildcats get Saturday off, so their exhilaration is allowed to play itself out).
After a horrific first-season in 2013, when his team went 0-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in lined games, allowing at least 33 points in each of those defeats, there was a lot of pressure on Sonny Dykes to show well early this season. The talent was much better than it looked LY, so significant improvement was within reach, and a 31-24 win at Northwestern in the opener had a proper resurrection feel about it. So with that big lead at Arizona, the confidence had to be running high. Which now makes us get out the microscope, with concerns about both an emotional and a physical crash.
Arizona scored a staggering 36 points in that final stanza, with 31 plays going for 279 yards, culminating in that 47-yard Hail Mary from Anu Solomon to Austin Hill. Not only does that finish leave the confidence of the Bear defense shattered, but what is the carryover effect of having been on the field for 106 plays? This will be a prime issue this week because Cal brings a major revenge motive against a much slower Colorado team, having been whipped 41-24 in Boulder last November. Will the memory of that dismal defeat be enough to get them back up off the mat? Or for a team that has now lost 15 straight Pac 12 games, could the legacy of failure leave their psyche too damaged to trust?
Item: Samaje Perine, and the “Eye Test”
If this topic began with by stating that the freshman Oklahoma RB was the “best-looking Perine since Valerie’s younger days”, would that work? Or would someone quibble about the spelling of the second name? Regardless, he was that good on Saturday night in Morgantown, and some context is needed as the Sooners move firmly into the National Championship picture.
It was noted in Friday’s column (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1042496.aspx) how much the line had dropped for Oklahoma’s trip to West Virginia, with a small trickle of that attributed to leading rusher Keith Ford being out for the Sooners. But the key point was that Ford “should not be of any pointspread impact”, because Perine and Alex Ross were more than capable replacements. Little did anyone, perhaps even Bob Stoops, know how ready Perine was. It is rare to trust a true freshmen in a tough setting on the road, but the more they fed the 243-pound workhorse the stronger and more confident he got, and he worked his way through the Mountaineer defense for 242 yards and four TDs on 34 carries.
That could become a major moment going forward. Having that kind of power back to go with the weapons in the Sooner passing game makes them extremely difficult to defend. When they spread the field with multiple WRs it usually means a nickel package to try to cope, but it is not easy to go with extra DBs when Perine is on the field. With that major test having been passed there should be little hesitation to give him a major workload, making the injury to Ford a unique blessing in disguise. Does the Oklahoma power rating actually get raised because of Ford’s absence, enabling them to push Perine’s development ahead of schedule?
Item: The Marshall Plan
As also noted in Friday’s column, Marshall has a legitimate chance to run the board this season, something that Doc Holliday seems well aware of. So while those rather easy wins and covers the past two weeks, 44-14 over Ohio as -20.5, and 48-17 over Akron as -10.5, might not cause you to take a second look, you should. As impressive as those final scores were each could have been much bigger - it was 44-0 midway through the 3rd quarter vs. Ohio before Holliday backed off, and it was 41-3 at the end of the third against Akron on Saturday.
Holliday is managing his team through the schedule, working on keeping them fresh for a season that will likely extend to 14 games. He can do that because in his fifth season the roster is filled with his own recruits, and there is plenty of depth. So much so that Holliday can afford to go to a higher level of discipline than many others can afford. You will see in the box vs. Akron that Remi Watson ran for 124 yards on nine carries, and that Devon Johnson added 103 more on 18. What you will not see is Steward Butler’s name, despite the fact that he ran for 119 the previous week vs. Ohio. Where was Butler? Spending much of his day near Holliday.
From the coach – “I didn’t like the way he practiced the last week. If I don’t like the way he practices, he ain’t going to play. We’ve got plenty of backs. If they practice well, they play. If they don’t, they sit over by me and watch. He sat over by me and watched today.”
Here is what you need to do. First make sure you note that each of those last two scores were short of the true realities. But then understand just why those flows were as they were. If you do plan to use Marshall as a big favorite down the line be aware of it – playing the Thundering Herd for the first half, instead of the full game, may be the better strategy.
Item: Dealing with SMU
Like Marshall above, SMU games have produced final scores that have not reflected the true realities. But it has been an entirely different direction, and both power rating the Mustangs, and adjusting the opposition off of games against them, will be difficult this season. In opening 0-3 SU and ATS the pointspreads and scores show 64 points of error, but one can only guess as to how bad it could have been.
SMU has been out-scored 166-12. Half of the points came on a meaningless 33-yard TD pass from Kolney Cassel to Nate Halverson on the final play vs. North Texas, when trailing 43-0. At halftime of the three games the count has been 92-3. The handicapping conundrum is that while the Mustangs have been worse on the field than on the scoreboard, there will continue to be a “game integrity” issue the rest of the way – opponents are not going to go out of their way to embarrass the program, and will use SMU as a chance to coast in between greater challenges. With an almost assured overhaul of the coaching staff coming up, the motivation for the current guys on staff to go hard is not there, and that makes maintaining discipline over the team a major challenge.
Item: Understanding Oregon
Oregon has built a reputation for playing a certain way that is not easy to get out of the minds of the marketplace, especially as the Ducks appear to be a prime contenders to be one of the four teams standing come playoff time. But they have gone -19 ATS so far, a 1-2 in terms of the individual games, and there is something to see along that front. First, it must be noted that it could have so easily been an 0-3 ATS slide, with Michigan State leading 27-18 outright midway through the 3rd quarter in Eugene three weeks ago. Then note the turnover differential, and you gain more enlightenment – the Ducks are +7 through those three games. To go +7, and still come up 19 points short of the spread, tells us something.
It must be acknowledged that the advantage is not just good fortune – Marcus Mariota is executing the offense with a wonderful precision, and there are not going to be many miscues. But what there is not is the same level of production. The OL is genuinely struggling, allowing an alarming seven sacks at Washington State on Saturday night, which is why the game was tied midway through the final stanza.
The Oregon ground game is a legitimate step below past standards, and the defense has allowed 87 first downs and 1,278 yards over the last three games. The Ducks are winning with precision right now, and not overwhelming talent or that break-neck pace – they have actually been on the field for 34 fewer snaps then their opponents in those lined games. But the marketplace will be driven more on past reputation than these current realities, which can open some opportunities.
Item: Quick Hits
--LSU was out-rushed 570-219 in the box scores in those showdowns vs. Mississippi State and Wisconsin, and you should call it 594-219, with a bad snap leading to a 24-yard loss for Mississippi State on Saturday that had nothing to do with the ground game. A cycle of too many players leaving early for the NFL may have knocked the defense for a loop this season, with only three SRs on the two-deep, and 12 of the 22 being freshmen or sophomores.
--Driphus Jackson played six series at QB for Rice vs. Old Dominion, and the Owls scored five TDs. He sat out four series with a shoulder injury, and the offense only scored once.
--The impact of high-play counts as a carry-over for a defense was discussed in a column last week. Maryland was on the field for 113 plays in a loss to West Virginia, and the follow-up was allowing an alarming 358 rushing yards at Syracuse, an afternoon in which the 34-20 Terrapin win on the scoreboard was not a proper translation of what happened on the field (Maryland was out-gained 577-373).
--Although having Teddy Bridgewater around was certainly nice, Louisville won with defense, the ground game, and fundamentals under Charlie Strong. In three lined games under Bobby Petrino the Cardinals may be 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, but they have only 221 net rushing yards, and eight turnovers.
--How bad is the Tulane passing game? Through four outings the Green Wave have yet to complete more than 50 percent of their passes in any game, with 10 INTs. Three of those picks were returned for TDs.