Point Blank – September 19
When Steam Leaves Wrinkles
There have been a multitude of discussions here already this season about some of the unique aspects of the 2014 betting marketplace – substantial forays are being made from the opening lines, and as opposed to the past there are far fewer traffic cops stepping in to stop the flow. From some key sources there are stories of “Steam Chasers” being in force, taking sides that appear to be hot and joining the ride. If that is truly the case it is great news for all of us, because it means volatility, and there is literally nothing better for sports investors than a marketplace that creates opportunities.
So let’s have some fun today. While it is still more than 24 hours before the weekend kicks off in earnest, how about looking at some of those opportunities that are emerging. While the Housewife’s rule is that steam takes out wrinkles, in this case could this week’s steam instead be leaving wrinkles behind, those little signs that the market fabric is not smooth, and can be exploited?
We know the hesitation that many bettors have about bucking “Steam”. There is a fear that someone knows something, and there are few worse feelings than making a wager only to find out that there was serious information that you did not have, but those that bought the other side did. But that is not germane to this exercise. Once a line has moved beyond some key numbers, you are not bucking the information, or the opinion of the originators. If someone lays -3.5 on a game, and you can take +6, you are not taking them on. Instead, you are taking on the followers and the adjusters, a group that you should not mind playing against at all.
Does Akron have enough Zip?
Marshall opened -12.5 at Akron this week, and -9 is not difficult to find now. There is a situational case that could have been made to Akron at the higher number – Terry Bowden and the Zips have two full weeks to prepare, while Marshall comes off of a major revenge setting vs. Ohio (yes, the Thundering Herd were -20.5 and expected to win easily by the markets, but there was a major chip on their shoulder, having lost the last three in that series.).
But are the Marshall letdown notions viable in any way? It was 41-0 in the third quarter last week, so the starters were not extended. In a season in which the Thundering Herd genuinely believe they can go 12-0 the focus should be there, especially since they are off next week. As for a home field advantage, the only time Akron reached 20,000 in attendance the last two seasons was the game vs. cross-town rival Kent State, with Golden Flash backers filling many of the seats. That could be the case again here – because this Marshall campaign has a chance to be special, there may be a lot of fans wearing green, making the four-hour drive to the closest road game the team will play this season.
As for Akron, there just are not a whole lot of playmakers on offense, and even with a +3 turnover advantage the Zips could not cover in that 21-3 defat at Penn State (only 277 yards on 71 snaps). Against an opponent that has topped 700 yards in back-to-back games, the underdog will be forced to make plays to hang around.
A bowl of “steamed” Rice?
Old Dominion opened +10.5 at Rice for the first-ever CUSA game for the Monarchs, and the line got driven through the 7’s yesterday, with 6.5 becoming common. And while the game marks a new era for a program that has been building towards this for several seasons, do they merit the new shorter price range?
Rice was -14.5 vs. Florida Atlantic, -19 vs. UTEP, -14.5 vs. Louisiana Tech and -10 vs. Tulane in home conference games LY. The Owls won all of them, part of a run to the CUSA title game, where they shocked Marshall by 17 to win the crown. The only home conference loss the past two seasons came against Marshall in a 54-51 OT thriller early in the 2012 schedule. And it is a veteran team that David Bailiff fields (12 senior starters, with the expected return of WR Jordan Taylor this week, and seven juniors), with the benefit of back-to-back bowl appearances allowing for extra practice time for this crew.
If there is a subtle factor here it is the level of preparation. Old Dominion has had home games vs. Hampton and Eastern Michigan, sandwiched around a road trip to N. C. State, which makes the Monarch schedule among the weakest of any lined team. Meanwhile Rice has opened at Notre Dame and Texas A&M, the toughest set of anyone on the board. And while the Owls did not show well on the scoreboard in those games, they did produce 44 first downs and 848 yards. Drives can become easier to finish when you are stepping way down in class.
Sooner, Later?
It is Big 12 showdown time already in Morgantown, and the markets are firmly putting the home team in the hunt, driving an opener of Oklahoma -11.5 down to -7.5, with even a stray -7 or two showing on occasion. The first salvo can be understood, after West Virginia stood toe-to-toe with Alabama, and put up some big numbers vs. Maryland, with Clint Trickett the best QB in the nation east of Crater Lake so far. But what about now - could the best value actually come in playing the favorite at the lowest price?
There are some personnel issues in play, two that are visible but perhaps misunderstood, and one that has not come in to play yet, but certainly could. First was the announcement that Oklahoma leading rusher Keith Ford would not play. There was some market activity when word got out, but there should not have been. Yes, Ford has been effective, rushing for 194 yards and five TDs at 5.7 per carry. But stepping up to replace him are Samaje Perine and Alex Ross, who have combined for 309 yards at 5.8, with four TDs. Ford may have been the “leading rusher”, but has actually produced less than one-third of the Sooner overland yards, and should not be of any pointspread impact.
But David Worley should be. The starting Mountaineer CB, and best cover guy, has 17 tackles and two INTs, but has been suspended. Given a lack of depth in the secondary, that is an issue. But it is a lack of depth elsewhere that has not shown that could develop into a problem for this particular matchup. Yesterday in this column (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1041609.aspx) there was a take on the stratospheric snap count that WVU had in beating Maryland – 108 plays. What was amazing was that the starting OL was on the field for every one of them. That almost happened vs. Alabama as well, when Quinton Spain sat out a couple of snaps, but the other four went the distance. Oklahoma’s aggressive defensive front (five sacks and 13 tackles for loss vs. Tennessee last week) will seriously challenge the lack of depth from that group, especially if last week’s marathon has that OL already playing with some heavy legs.
Could this be a “Bear Market”, literally?
California was one of those major steamers back on Week #1 at Northwestern, going from a CRIS opener of +12 all the way down to +7.5, before closing at +8. Those making that investment were rewarded easily, in a 31-24 Cal win in which the Golden Bears never trailed. Now look at how similar the markets are treating them this week, with +12.5 for the game at Arizona now reduced to +7.5 again. But while some could be bullish on Cal at the early price, is it now a “bear market”?
Let’s set some perspective. As good as the Bears win at Northwestern looked at the time, some luster faded when Northern Illinois also went into Evanston and won. And does one road win do enough to ease the confidence level of a team with an ugly legacy away from Berkeley? For the fifth-year seniors it has been a 1-13 SU and 3-10-1 ATS slide as Pac 12 road underdogs, with 12 of those 14 losses coming by 17 points or more.
Now for a line parameter. When these teams played at Cal last November the Wildcats closed at -14.5, the rough equivalent of a -17.5 gap between the programs on a neutral field. Now the current tariff is calling that gap somewhere in the range of -4 to -5. The Bears may have indeed improved enough for those early +12.5’s to be taken – the oddsmakers should have been a little sharper in their focus, given the California/Northwestern money flow. But a -7 on gameday gets the monocle out, especially since a matchup that carries a total of 70 does not require a high degree of dominance to win by more than a TD.
Is the “Shuffle off to Buffalo” out of tune?
Who knew that we would ever get a chance to reach back to “42nd Street” for a reference. But it fits. Times change, and so do betting markets. Once upon a time a team that handled the defending Super Bowl Champions the way that San Diego beat Seattle last Sunday would become a hot item, and the money would flow accordingly. Instead, an opener of Buffalo pick’em on Sunday night has now been pushed to -2.5, the money coming in against the team that just played so well.
There are several standard handicapping notions that can explain the move – letdowns are now understood, so the markets will often Zag where they used to Zig; it is a well-known pattern that teams have fared poorly after facing the Seahawks in recent years; and west coast teams historically fare poorly when heading across the nation for an early Sunday start, with the travel and time zone adjustment costing the equivalent of a full preparation day. But you are not likely to find anyone at the higher levels of the oddsmaking community that will tell you that the latter two factors were not already incorporated into the Pick’em send-outs.
Yet the Buffalo money has flowed anyway. Now the question becomes whether it has opened the door enough to look towards Mike McCoy, who is very high in our esteem, to be able to keep his team enough on track to beat this class of opponent. For some perspective, the Bills have been favored one time over the last 4+ seasons against a team that ended up in the playoffs, a span of 66 games, and lost that one outright. With many of those 2.5’s tilting towards +3, the decision on game day could become an easier one to make.
In the Sights…
When is the best time to back a meaningful trend? How about right as it begins. For all of the attention given to Adrian Peterson’s absence for New England/Minnesota last week, there was something significant on the field that garnered little attention - the Patriot offense, and game tempo, is in a transition.
The Pats ran the ball on 37 of 60 plays in that game, and of the 23 pass attempts, nine were out of play action. Add in one sack, and 46 of 61 snaps featured either a run, or a run fake. And while they indeed were working with a lead in the second half, and entitled to play conservatively, keep in mind that they were down 7-0 the first time they got the ball. So use this next number as the most important – 23. That is how many times there were six New England OL on the field in the offensive formation, nearly 40 percent of the snaps.
After playing back-to-back on the road, and with another trip next week to Kansas City for the Monday Night game, this looks like a classic “game management” setting for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. And we already have a good idea how Dennis Allen wants to bring along his limited Oakland team with a rookie QB – the Raiders are #31 in situation-neutral offensive pace so far. As bad as the offense has been, with only 28 points and 522 yards, it is crucial to note that half of those points, and 161 of the yards, came on the final possessions vs. the Jets and Texans, trailing 19-7 and 30-7 before those marches. A 47 Total does not reflect the current realities for either of these offenses, one based on pace, the other on ineptness.