Point Blank – September 17
Adrian Peterson, and the 2014 Marketplace: A Case Study
Off-field behavior remains an on-going story, as is when we will next see him in uniform, but Adrian Peterson is a very good football player. That became evident after the opening drive for Minnesota on Saturday, the sum of the remaining Viking parts on offense being fully exposed. What was rather striking was that in the hours leading up to kickoff, there was an entirely different valuation from the Betting Markets. It makes for a fascinating case study.
There have been several takes already about how unusual the market behaviors have been so far in 2014, beginning with “Where the Hell was the Buyback?” a couple of weeks ago (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1026058.aspx). But nothing prepared us for what took place Sunday morning, a day in which the final measure of the perception for Peterson’s value ended up being around 20 cents off of a 3.
Let’s start with the market activity on Patriots/Vikings during the week, courtesy of our friends at Sports Options. CRIS, Pinnacle and the Westgate Superbook will be used as the bases. Comparisons will be to the opener with Peterson playing; the last line on Thursday night; the new adjusted Friday opener; the Sunday line at 8 AM Eastern; and the line at kickoff -
CRIS
Opener: -3 -125
Thursday Close: -3 Even
Friday New Opener: -6 -110
Sunday 8 AM Eastern: -5.5 -102
Kickoff: -3 -120
PINNACLE
Opener: -3 -105
Thursday Close: -3 +103
Friday New Opener: -4 -102 (-5 -108 within four minutes)
Sunday 8 AM Eastern: -5 -102
Kickoff: -3.5 +118
WESTGATE SUPERBOOK
Opener: -3.5 -110
Thursday Close: -3 Even
Friday New Opener: -5.5 -110
Sunday 8 AM Eastern: -5 -110
Kickoff: -3 -120
The Vikings drew money during the week, and there was even a short window on Thursday that showed New England as low as -2.5 -120. Pinny did not make a huge adjustment for the new opener on Friday, although money quickly altered that, with CRIS and the Superbook a little more pronounced. The latter was not necessarily Sports Book Director Jay Kornegay’s real opinion, however – “We thought the line should have only been adjusted 1 to 1.5 for Peterson but the market overreacted, and we adjusted with it.”
The Saturday traffic on the game was naturally light, with NCAA action taking priority. So for 36 hours, those Friday openers held fairly stable. Then came gameday, and money began to come in on the Vikings. And kept coming in … and kept coming in. More Kornegay – “We tried to keep ahead of the market but the Minnesota support was more than we expected.”
A legitimate case could be made to take Minnesota +6, a lesser one at +5, and someone that really believes that the Patriots are over-rated could still try to build a small one at +4. But the question became who was making these cases? Ordinarily when this kind of money shows there is a belief that it is a particular syndicate or two. But not when +3.5’s are still being taken. I am not sure if I know a single NFL sharp that would take +4 on a game that was available at +6 the previous day, and absolutely none that would have taken a +3.5. But that money was there.
Bob “I’ll write home every day-ay” Scucci, Sports Book Director of the Boyd Gaming properties, even wondered for a while if his own opinion might have been too far off – “I thought maybe Matt Asiata was better than I ever thought. No, he wasn’t.”
But still that is only part of the equation – why was there not a lot of money showing at the lowest price points to play against the Vikings without Peterson? Especially since the team genuinely did not know he was going to be out until Friday, when it was too late to put a game plan together. One of the key injury/suspension adjustment aspects that does not get discussed often enough is the timing issue – there is a major difference between losing a player on Monday, when there is a full game-week practice cycle to adapt, as opposed to Friday.
So what is going on in this market? There is some intriguing speculation, but no concrete answers. One of the theories being floated is that a lot of money is flowing from some nouveau “Steam Chasers”. These appear to be folks that want to put money in play, and are stepping in when it appears that there are “hot” sides out there (somehow someone was even convinced to follow a move behind Charlie Weiss and Kansas on Saturday, for which we are so grateful). There is more discussion of that from off-shore sources, since it is easier to track that activity from accounts, rather than walk-up windows. But is that the reality? It will take time to measure, and even then will be an inexact exercise.
The lack of buyback against moves continues to be fascinating. It is true that one group that would ordinarily specialize in such investments is in play for lesser amounts this autumn, but why was there not a line forming to play New England at the bottom price near Sunday’s kickoff? If the original New England -3 was to be trusted at all, the opportunity to lay 20 cents off of that for Peterson’s absence should have been a bargain. That is an integral part of the mystery – while there will continue to be tracking of the major moves, and who is behind them, could the new markets also be emerging in a way that shows less of an anchoring to the opinions of the oddsmakers?
It will be fascinating to both watch, and participate in. It is certainly a Buyer’s Market in terms of the opportunities being created, but it is not the easiest market to read in terms of maximizing the opportunities on any particular game. Much more on those fronts as the season develops…
Survivor Week #3
The Packers certainly caused some anxious moments on Sunday, but have passed us through to Week #3, and San Francisco falling did cause a trickle of reduction in some pool counts to aid the cause. This week brings a bit of a twist from the usual strategy.
So often the early season focus is to sneak through weak teams, and accumulate a healthy supply of the upper tier to create flexibility later. But this week what looks like the safest play is also the smartest, the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS. This is by far the best setting for the Patriots there will be this season, with a ride ahead that is not all that easy, and other contenders near the top of the list (Saints, Bengals, Falcons, Colts, Eagles) bring far more opportunities for later in the schedule than the Pats. In reality, the Patriots are not just a conservative play this week, but also a savvy one.
Out of Play:
PITTSBURGH
GREEN BAY
In the Sights…
There was a discussion a few weeks ago about finding some Run Line value during the September pennant chases, and a setting on the Wednesday boards brings an opportunity. The Rangers are playing loosely and confidently right now, their four-game win streak one short of a season high, and they doubled the A’s in both runs and hits in the series opener last night. Derek Holland has been superb since re-joining the rotation, an 0.86 allowance over 21 innings in which he has 17 K without walking a single batter. A fresh Holland can be counted on to keep Texas in the hunt against an Oakland team that is only 17-38 since the All Star break with a -1.5 attached, while Jeff Samardzija will break the 200 IP barrier this evening, and may have his best work of 2014 behind him. +1.5 -120 is available, which is more than fair value on a night in which the Total may close at 6.5.