Point Blank – September 1
What a “Bettor Better Know” - NCAA Week #1
Time for the first in what will be the regular Monday morning session here this fall, looking at key items from the weekend NCAA results that you may have missed, but need to incorporate into your thought processes.
Item: The SEC, and the Playoff Era
One of the major talking points this season, and in autumns to come, will be whether two teams from the SEC can make the Playoff field of four. The debate will center on how difficult the league is, and that an SEC team with two losses may be legitimately better than a team from another league with only one (though 10-2 will likely never get in front of a 12-0). This weekend provided ammo for the pro-SEC side, and understanding the “how” of it is important for the handicapper.
There were seven games between SEC schools and those from leagues eligible for the Playoff, and while a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS at the closing lines does not necessarily have to jump off the page, here is what should – the SEC won the fourth quarter of those games by a combined 88-20. This was not a case of piling it on in one-sided games – LSU (Wisconsin), Georgia (Clemson), Mississippi (Boise State) and Alabama (West Virginia) all went into the final stanza with the final scoreboard outcome in doubt. The only TD allowed by that quartet came after Ole Miss had broken it open 28-6 vs. Boise.
The point differentials in the final stanzas were not flukes - take a look at the 4th Quarter Total Offense tables of the four games in which the outcome was on the line:
Mississippi 199 Boise State 115
Alabama 100 West Virginia 42
Georgia 202 Clemson -19
LSU 107 Wisconsin 24
Yes, the SEC teams were favored in those games and expected to eventually take control. Alabama actually under-performed (though some credit should be given to Clint Trickett and the Mountaineers for that, which we will do it a moment). But the key for now is to understand how that control was taken when push came to shove, literally.
It is the depth of talent that makes that league so strong, and what also turns the conference schedule into a minefield. That depth was on display this weekend. And how about this for an example of not just depth, but literally that clichéd notion of “Playing to Win” – LSU is now 22-21 SU after trailing in the fourth quarter since Les Miles became coach in 2005. No other program has a winning record in that category across that span.
Item: Clint Trickett was really, really Good
Because of the media attention given to Nick Saban and Alabama, losses by the Crimson Tide are often reported as “What Went Wrong” with ‘Bama, rather than what the victor did right. Even close wins get covered that way, more funereal than joyous. That is the tone that has been set because of the remarkable success of the program. When interviewed walking off the field at halftime on Saturday, Saban said something perhaps never heard before since he took over at Tuscaloosa, referring to his defense as “soft”, and naturally that made headlines. And those headlines may keep you from properly adjusting your ratings for what really happened on the field.
OK, so the ‘Bama “D” was not near the usual standards. But to look at it too long from that side of the equation would be wrong. Clint Trickett played at a high level for the Mountaineers, and that is a takeaway that can matter later. As good as his numbers looked (29-45-365, with a TD and no INTs), they could have been much better – there were at least a half dozen drops. He was poised and threw with confidence, many times beating good coverage by putting the ball right on the money.
Trickett’s transition season after transferring from Florida State to WVU (he had already graduated) never really got untracked LY – he played through a shoulder injury and two concussions. But off-season surgery took care of the shoulder, and the QB on the field Saturday was a much different player than the past. Those were not Crimson Tide breakdowns; that was a good QB making plays.
Item: A Bad Punt Snap is not a Running Play
Databases get jammed up with enough misleading info when measurements are done properly, because of the unique nature of football. But the official statisticians can make it even worse, especially early in the season. One of the key statistical categories in college football is obviously the ability to run, and defend it, and it has traditionally been muddled, with the inclusion of sacks, QB kneel-downs at the end of games, and bad snaps on punt or FG attempts. Fortunately box scores have evolved, now breaking down sacks, and identifying a “Team” loss on a botched snap or a kneel down. But not always.
Central Michigan punter Ron Coluzzi had an effective game against Chattanooga, four times dropping the ball out-of-bounds inside the 12-yard line. But in the box score you will also see him with a rush attempt, for -16 yards. It was a mishandled snap, and does nothing to help measure the ability of the Chippewas to run, or Chattanooga to defend it. The same game box also recorded three late Central kneel-downs, which lost 10 yards, as rushing plays. Make sure to filter that out - the proper measure should be Central running for 42-174, 4.1 per attempt, instead of 46-148 and 3.2.
On Friday there was a play even more to the extreme, with Houston punter Dylan Seibert charged with a rush attempt for -42 yards. Throw that out also. It does not help you in any way in terms of measuring the Cougar ground game, or how UT-San Antonio defends it.
Fortunately other botched special teams plays and kneel-downs were incorporated properly into the box scores of the other lined games, but you do need to correct for the examples above.
Item: Minnesota 35 Eastern Illinois 0 at 7:00/42-7 at 0:30/42-20 Final
Do not be fooled by either the scoreboard or the box score in terms of evaluating the Golden Gopher defense. The starters had finished their evening when the first Eastern Illinois points were scored, and yes, the flow went TD at 0:27, onside kick recovery, and a 32-yard TD pass on the final play to close out. The Panthers finished with 38 more offensive snaps, and gained 159 of their yards after they had fallen down 35-0 in the final stanza. It was a positive night for the Minnesota defense, but the scoreboard and box score will cloud over it.
Item: Kent State goes +4 in Turnovers, and Loses, or…
Ohio goes -4 in Turnovers and Wins
You should always be on the lookout for games in which a team fails to take advantage of a major turnover edge, with the corresponding equation that the opponent overcame one. In particular it matters when a favorite gets an edge of +2 or more and loses the game outright. When it gets to a +4 and the favorite loses, then it is genuine food for thought; it means that the line was clearly wrong.
Ohio closed as +3 at Kent State on Saturday, and won 17-14 on a FG with 0:03 remaining. A close score, with the game falling near the pointspread, might not have had your turn your head. But there is a lot to see. The Bobcats dominated play, winning the yards-per-rush by 4.0 to 1.4, and yards-per-pass by 10.9 to 6.4. But their first four drives of the second half all ended in lost fumbles, with the last three marches getting to the KSU 27, 25 and 22 before the drops. On the fifth possession came the game-winning FG. It is possible that Ohio could have scored on every one of those possessions, since the only stops came on the fumbles.
There was a mitigating factor – the Golden Flashes played without work-horse RB Traylon Durham. But even without him, the +4 advantage in turnovers that they had in the game needed to translate to a much better scoreboard than it did.
Item: Auburn’s Jeremy Johnson goes 12-16-243 and two TDs
For as explosive as the Auburn offense was LY, the Tigers were breaking in a new playbook, and a new QB (remember – Nick Marshall did not even join the team until fall practice). The reality is that it was a rather vanilla scheme as far as a Gus Malzahn playbook goes; he simply did a masterful job of adjusting to the personnel at hand, with the Tigers leading the nation in rushing yardage. That is what made the first half vs. Arkansas on Saturday so intriguing, and perhaps frightening for future opponents.
Marshall was suspended for that half, and all back-up Jeremy Johnson did was lead TD drives of 75, 75 and 98 yards on the first three possessions, with the offense generating 311 yards in the half. He averaged 15.2 yards per pass attempt, and all that kept more points from being scored was the fact that the Tigers uncharacteristically twice failed to convert 3rd-and-one on running plays, which forced punts, and there was also missed a FG attempt on the final play of the half.
When Marshall did take the field we saw much more of that run-first 2013 attack (he was only 4-6-50 in the air), so time will tell if the playbook will be opened up for him as well. But with Johnson looking so confident, and JuCo transfer D’Haquille Williams the real deal on the outside (9-154 and a TD), there is an added dimension to the attack now, and that is yet one more headache for defensive coordinators. It also brings a quick-strike ability from the Tiger reserves that must be incorporated into your thought processes when they are in a big chalk role (like vs. San Jose State this week).
Item: Tulsa 38 Tulane 31, 2 O.T.’s
Let’s establish a proper base from the start so that there will not be any confusion in the future – my records will give Tulane the cover here, and yours should also. Databases are kept not just to record the past, but to also best predict the future, so they should be constructed that way. Tulsa closed at -5 in most key precincts, and the final score in regulation was 28-28. That is what should be filed away – favorite ATS loss, underdog ATS win. What happened in the O.T. periods absolutely matters in terms of understanding the teams, but you should create a separate category for that.
Item: USC has 105 offensive snaps
If ever there was a “right fit for the right place”, it is Steve Sarkisian bringing that uptempo offensive playbook to Southern California, where talented QBs and WRs can be recruited without having to go through airport security. Saturday’s opening rout of Fresno State did not just showcase the talent already on hand (Cody Kessler will be much more comfortable than in Lane Kiffin’s slower, yet more complex, playbook), but also becomes an opening salvo for his recruiting efforts. The fact that freshmen JuJu Smith, Adoree Jackson and Bryce Dixon stepped right in to combine for eight receptions, good for 182 yards and two TDs, will be a selling point. And keep in mind that Saturday’s numbers could have been even better – the Trojans already reached 83 plays through three quarters before the starters were pulled, and the two drives for the second unit ended on 4th down stops in Fresno State territory, one of them coming at the three-yard line. They did not punt in the game.
But here is what can matter immediately. No offense gave Stanford more issues LY than Sarkisian’s Washington attack, with the Huskies rolling up 30 first downs and 489 yards in a narrow loss, but ATS cover. The Cardinal defensive scheme is a complex one, and Washington consistently got to the line of scrimmage and snapped the ball before David Shaw and his assistants could make adjustments. That forced them to be much more basic than they would have preferred, and it showed in the results. That will be a key part of the “Game Inside the Game” when the two square off in Palo Alto this Saturday.
Item: Eastern Michigan’s Win resembled the Field
When teams get early wins by piling up pretty numbers vs. weak opponents it does not necessarily mean all that much. But when teams struggle against weak competition it does. The feel-good story for Eastern Michigan was winning the opener under Chris Creighton, while debuting a grey field that will create much opportunity for playful comparisons. The bad news is that for arguably the worst program of any in a board conference, the game performance was as bleak as the field it was on.
Despite wining 31-28 against Morgan State, the Eagles lost the yards-per-play battle by a significant 6.9 to 4.5. Now consider that Morgan State was picked to finish last in the MEAC media poll, and not only brought in a new HC in Lee Hull, but nine new assistants. The most alarming issue for EMU was the passing game. The uptempo attack that Creighton has installed did get off 86 snaps, but of the 30 pass attempts, only one produced a gain of more than nine yards. It was an anemic 3.1 per attempt, against a weak opponent. This is the sort of game that you could easily gloss over, but should not – that was a bad show by a team that now faces a tough road slate ahead, not playing on that grey field again until the second Saturday in October.
In the Sights…
It is a most unusual day on the MLB Diamonds, with nine different teams having to travel from a Sunday site into a Monday afternoon game, including difficult turnarounds for the Brewers (losing two hours in time zone changes), and Indians (it was after midnight Eastern before a decision was reached to suspend in Kansas City). But before taking the plunge keep in mind that all starting pitchers had already been sent ahead, and do not have the fatigue issues that their teammates could face. How to best take advantage? For many of the teams involved in those turnarounds there will not be batting practice today, so give an edge to the pitching where the better bullpen arms are fresh. Ordinarily that would also mean a look at the Grand Salami Under, but on a humid day with the wind out in Wrigley, Brewers/Cubs brings a volatility into the proceedings that is best avoided.