POINT BLANK – August 21
Eye-Testing the Eagle Defense
The phrase “Eye Test” has been used a few times in this column since the debut, and will be a recurring theme – there are times in which the ability to watch a team, or a particular performer, brings a much better path towards enlightenment than sorting through the box scores and stats afterwards. Perhaps one day there will be a “Zen of Watching Sports” discussion here, to focus on the particulars of just what to look for. But many of you already know the drill, and many of you will also be watching the Steelers/Eagles tonight. You should watch – there is a lot to absorb when the Philadelphia defense takes the field.
That defense is going to require some dexterity in your handicapping approaches. Last week there was a discussion of how the Total Yardage statistical references used far too often by the Sports Mediaverse can be misleading (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1012208.aspx), to the point of steering you in the wrong direction on many occasions. That can happen with Philadelphia. Because of Chip Kelly’s offensive pace the Eagle games are going to have a high number of snaps, and when the 2013 counting was done the defense had been on the field for 143 more plays than the NFL average, roughly nine snaps per game. That is obviously going to mean more points, first downs and yards, so other metrics are needed, largely based on per-play results, and percentages. Yet even those will require nuance.
By any measure, this was not a good defense in 2013. The Football Outsider tables will be used the most in this column, and they rated the Eagles at #23, including #25 vs. the pass. When some of the specifics are charted the problems are easy to see – they were #24 on 3rd down conversion rate, and #31 in sacks per pass attempt. For as good as that #3 offense was it means a lot to overcome, and the balance between offensive and defensive efficiency gets weighted the wrong way because Philadelphia had 96 fewer snaps than the opposition, a full six plays per game. And note that this was happening vs. a rather gifted schedule – the only playoff team the Eagles faced over the final 12 weeks of the regular season was Green Bay, and even that one merits an * because of the absence of Aaron Rodgers.
So far in the pre-season the defense has been hideous, allowing 76 points, on 62 first downs and 967 yards. They have been so poor at getting off the field on 3rd down, allowing 20-32 conversions, that the opponents have had 38 more offensive snaps. Yes, the games do not count, and the schemes have been extremely vanilla. But since there were already causes for concern, it makes tonight’s game an important case study.
There are three issues worth isolating –
A. Bill Davis
Davis is a career NFL assistant coaching vagabond, having had 10 different stints with nine teams (he was with Cleveland twice). None of them lasted very long. He has been a defensive coordinator twice, with San Francisco in 2005-06 and Arizona from 2009-10. Both times he was fired after the second season, with the 49er defense rating #26 in that second campaign, and the Cardinals #25. There was a net overall drop from those two defenses from his first to second seasons, instead of improvement. And in the season after Davis left, both defenses actually got better. There is nothing in his resume that says that he is the guy to handle one of the more difficult DC jobs in the NFL.
B. Talent
This group is only average, and may require more X’s savvy than Davis can offer. Trent Cole did come around as an OLB after some early struggles following the switch from DE, but he is now 32. As for other playmakers, they are not easy to find. The only notable addition was signing safety Malcolm Jenkins (New Orleans), since 1st round draft pick Marcus Smith does not look anywhere near being ready to contribute (Davis generously offered – “The game is moving too fast in his brain right now” as an evaluation for the Philadelphia Daily News).
C. Tactics
Here is the subtlety, and it matters. Opponents already understand that one of the best ways to stop the Eagle offense is to keep them on the sidelines. As such there is going to be much more of a focus on moving the chains than attacking down-field. That notion directly contributed to the 3rd down conversion success in 2013, and this season should be more of the same. That is why the somewhat reasonable 5.5 yards per play that Philly allowed in 2013 must be taken with a grain of salt – opponents will be more satisfied with safer plays for positive yardage, and we do not want the defense to steal false statistical credits for that. Only the Super Bowl Seahawks and Broncos had a bigger net yards-per-play gap over their opponents than the .8 of the Eagles, but your bankroll could get busted if you try to make that gap mean what it traditionally has.
So now the “Eye Test”. After two weeks of vanilla, Davis has talked about getting into his playbook tonight. Since there are questions about both the quality of that playbook, and the players trying to bring it to life, this is a valuable opportunity to let the cameras work for us, especially with the Steelers planning to utilize more of their no-huddle sets. What we do not know yet is how Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount will be used, but note that both are in Philly - Blount traveled with the team, and Bell got his own flight, after having to stay in Pittsburgh until some blood tests were completed yesterday afternoon.
In the sights…
There will be a full column devoted to September MLB Run Lines coming up next week, with plenty of opportunities to take advantage of one of the key particulars of the 2014 season – the teams at the top are pitching-heavy, not offensive juggernauts, which means that many of the wins by contenders down the stretch will not come by big margins. A good example is the current 9-0 run by Washington - the Nationals have won six of those games by a single run. Given the struggles of Gio Gonzalez, the ability to take +1.5 behind Wade Miley this afternoon presents a value opportunity.
Gonzalez has labored to a 5.46 since the All Star break, and was at 20.4 PPI or higher in four of the six starts. None of the six were Washington wins by two runs or more. Meanwhile Miley continues to be under the radar, a reverse case of a guy that has not yet developed confidence from his home mound, but has been terrific on the road. Miley has worked to a 5-3/2.86 personal line on the road this season, with the Diamondbacks going 11-2 as +1.5 across those 13 starts, and his career allowance is 1.17 runs per game lower when traveling than at home. Look for him to keep Arizona in the hunt.