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My Book is off with The open champ odds, I think?

My Book is off with The open champ odds, I think?
BlackBabyJesus
Joined: 01/04/2013
Posts: 29
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Oh Sh**, now I am confused. Loyd, I do not think he will cancel one of my bets, he has made a couple mistakes like this before. But I am not trying to take a shot at him, i really do not know him that well and trust me when i say that he has torn me apart on juicing up some baseball lines on me. But back to my bet, please help me understand why this is a bad bet. I am betting 500 to win 1200 that there will be NO playoff and then a seperate bet of 500 to win 1200 that margin of victory will be PLAYOFF. The way i see it is that I lose one and win one guarenteed and that would profit 700. Are you just stating that you think I am wrong for doing this and taking advantage of the books numbers or its simply a bad bet and if it is a bad bet, help me understand please. I am am asking because I really do not understand your last post and just trying to make some money like all of us. Please do not take this post in a negative way, that is not my intentions. I just though that i lucked up and found a loophole, after all, we all need a little luck now and then.

BlackBabyJesus
Joined: 01/04/2013
Posts: 29
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Also Loyd, correct me if I am wrong, but if I just bet the offline, I take a chance at losing where as betting both does not put losing into play unless he cancels a bet. Correct?

Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5624
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No worries.

First off, you ARE taking a shot at him.  It doesn't make you at bad human being, I've done it before.

Second, There's no reason for him to cancel the on market number, he's only going to cancel the bad line.  If I was that guy I'd look at it and think "Nice try asshole now you've got a $500 bet on something you don't want"

Third, I know the whole equity thing can be confusing.  The first thing you need to ask are what the implied odds of it not going to a playoff.  -330/+240 would imply 72.3%

So you multiply the win amount by the win percentage

1200 x .723 = 876.60

You then multiply you potential loss by how often it's expected to happen

500 x .277 = 138.50

You then subtract the two

876.60-138.50= 738.10

$38.10 more then scalping it for a guaranteed 700

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

BlackBabyJesus
Joined: 01/04/2013
Posts: 29
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Thanks for the help and wow, that is some impressive math. As you can tell, I am not near the bettor you are, I just play now and then, especially football. I wish i could say I understood all the math you just ran by me, but honestly I do not. And, i especially do not understand how it could be a better bet than if he takes both of mine I have now.  I am just going to ride this betting both sides thing out and hope he does not cancel one of them, especially since I made both bets at same time, I can just argue I wanted whichever he cancels. If anything, I think he will cancel both bets. Thanks for all the help and glad you dont think i am an asshole for betting both, guess I saw something and jumped a little quick. People like yourself are the reason I come on this site and I really appreciate your opinion.

Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5624
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Yeah it can be a little overwhelming.  The thing to remember about equity is it is the average amount you would expect to make from the bet each time if you did it 1,000 times over.

By scalping you are guaranteeing $700 each time.  By playing only the off side, sometimes you will lose $500, more often you will win $1200, and the average over infinite trials would be $738 each time.  That's why it's the better option

Obviously you're a newer or less experiences bettor and hopefully he takes that into consideration.  Bettors who are a little more green usually don't understand the etiquette when it comes to taking shots.  I've done similar things years ago and then came to realize it probably isn't a good idea.

One more thing, if he's juicing your baseball sides one way, why aren't you just betting the other side?

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1922
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Another great thread Llyod! You have me addicted to this place.

Lets say I back four 10/1 shots in multiples (doubles, trebles and a 4-Fold) that go off 6/1 true price on Betfair at the off of a race. How do I go about calculating my equity on this?

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
NBA97056.25135.00
BlackBabyJesus
Joined: 01/04/2013
Posts: 29
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Ohhh ok, I think I understand a bit more. I was just worried about losing part, but understand long term. And maybe you are right, I am prob gonna piss him off by playing both sides, but I am almost positive that he is just a middle man that pulls from this offshore book and pays a mothly to use their services. Also, when I say that he kills me on baseball lines, I mean he has 10 cent lines higher on each side and never to my advantage. People warned me he did this during baseball and to find another book, but I am just a 2-3 times a week bettor and nothing big on baseball. I mainly use him for football and make larger bets then. As for the etiquette side, I just saw an opportunity that he and his partners made and jumped on it. For instance, I once bet wrong side of over/under in the nfl for 500 and contacted him to change the bet for me and he just told me to make another 500 bet on side I really wanted and he would credit me the juice. He never credited me the juice and I kinda looked at it as it was my fault for not double checking my bet. You dont think as a book making a lot of money, that he should be checking these things? If i really wanted to screw him, i would be calling everyone I know that bets with him and telling them, the betting odds are still the same right now as they have been all day. I am really not trying to be an ass to him

Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5624
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BlackBabyJesus

Ohhh ok, I think I understand a bit more. I was just worried about losing part, but understand long term. And maybe you are right, I am prob gonna piss him off by playing both sides, but I am almost positive that he is just a middle man that pulls from this offshore book and pays a mothly to use their services. Also, when I say that he kills me on baseball lines, I mean he has 10 cent lines higher on each side and never to my advantage. People warned me he did this during baseball and to find another book, but I am just a 2-3 times a week bettor and nothing big on baseball. I mainly use him for football and make larger bets then. As for the etiquette side, I just saw an opportunity that he and his partners made and jumped on it. For instance, I once bet wrong side of over/under in the nfl for 500 and contacted him to change the bet for me and he just told me to make another 500 bet on side I really wanted and he would credit me the juice. He never credited me the juice and I kinda looked at it as it was my fault for not double checking my bet. You dont think as a book making a lot of money, that he should be checking these things? If i really wanted to screw him, i would be calling everyone I know that bets with him and telling them, the betting odds are still the same right now as they have been all day. I am really not trying to be an ass to him

Yeah I hear ya.  If he was actually going to credit you the juice on your mistake bet that would have been really nice of him.  Almost no offshore's will allow you to cancel a bet once it has been made, and zero will let you do it if the line has moved at all.  Any more questions feel free to ask. 

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5624
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Top 100 Contributor

ShayMonue

Another great thread Llyod! You have me addicted to this place.

Lets say I back four 10/1 shots in multiples (doubles, trebles and a 4-Fold) that go off 6/1 true price on Betfair at the off of a race. How do I go about calculating my equity on this?

Well if all 4 were 6/1 then they're each 14.28% which would give you 57.12% that one of them wins

Given a $100 bet on each...

Your stake would be $400 to win $700 (+175).

700 x .5712 = 399.84

-400 x .4288= -171.52

399.84-171.52= $228.32 or 57.1% if you bet them straight.

As for the exotics (which we call parlays this side of the pond) I could probably figure it out, and I know it will likely be more when you are tying +EV bets together, but I honestly don't feel like putting in the effort

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1922
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Lloyd Christmas

ShayMonue

Another great thread Llyod! You have me addicted to this place.

Lets say I back four 10/1 shots in multiples (doubles, trebles and a 4-Fold) that go off 6/1 true price on Betfair at the off of a race. How do I go about calculating my equity on this?

Well if all 4 were 6/1 then they're each 14.28% which would give you 57.12% that one of them wins

Given a $100 bet on each...

Your stake would be $400 to win $700 (+175).

700 x .5712 = 399.84

-400 x .4288= -171.52

399.84-171.52= $228.32 or 57.1% if you bet them straight.

As for the exotics (which we call parlays this side of the pond) I could probably figure it out, and I know it will likely be more when you are tying +EV bets together, but I honestly don't feel like putting in the effort

Thanks. Have you ever put this formula onto an excel sheet?

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
NBA97056.25135.00
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