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The Open Championship - LinksPicks (+17.95u)

Thread Starter The Open Championship - LinksPicks (+17.95u)
LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1196
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Outright Plays - each .5u 

Tiger Woods - 20.1/1

Sergio Garcia - 26/1

Graeme McDowell - 27.5/1

Dustin Johnson - 40/1

Rickie Fowler - 50/1

 

Happy to answer any questions you all may have, and really hope getting this thread up on Tuesday AM allows us to get the conversations going. The more people analyzing and taking about it, the better it is for all of us. 

And when I get a minute later, I'll pop in and give my 2 cents on these Outright Plays. 

Back soon everyone! 

-LinksPicks 

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 19-15-6 4.100
72h 10-9 1.200
Outright 0-13 (6.000)
Top 5-20 5-15 8.375
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +6.675

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

bwizzle
Joined: 01/12/2011
Posts: 2016
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

looks like a few early mornings this weekend!!!!

i have to say, this is probably my favorite just because of the different courses we dont see here in the US!

it will be tough to catch early action, have a great M/G this week, 27 thurs, 18 fri/sat.

good looking board here LP! However i am on a TIGER FADE! I just do not see his game having what it takes to beat this TOP NOTCH field? im sure you will have some input as to his high rank this week? it could just be the fact of the number he is at?

Dustin, FlatBills, and Serg are near the top of my list. I just cant look past BW. Wondering where he may be with your rankings? i know this will not be BOMBS AWAY for the most part, but his shot making along with nice odds, have me going back....

hope we get some peeps talking this around? always a great one to follow!

not a great week last week after a strong start, ended up giving back a bunch on saturday and got lucky sunday to end up plus just under 4 units. i really felt like a PLUS double digits week was on the way! maybe its this week!?!

thanks for sharing your work LP. Perhaps you need to get off US soil to nail the "W"!?!?

will be back!!

GDLK!

Bwizzle

LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1196
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Eldrick "Tiger" Woods - 20.1/1

Simply put - I tried to stay away. But once I saw the original 15-17/1 number creep above 20, I had to bite. This seems like exactly the right time for him to break his major drought. Not when he is #1 in the world and wining tournaments left and right so all the pressure is on him at say 6 or 8/1 - - -  but when many of the 'pundits' or 'experts' are not expecting him to win, and everyone is trying to dampen expectations. He shows up not as the betting favorite, but just outside the Top 5. Of course he can win any time he tees it up, and even despite the personal issues and numerous injuries he has had since his last major win at the 2008 US Open, he has played in 18 majors, making 16 cuts, and owns 9 Top 6s. All of that during the most tumultuous time of his life.. 

Fast forward to this week, and he is saying all the right things. He is getting stronger every day, says he is pain free for the first time in years, and is playing a course he has fond memories of as he celebrated his major win in 2006 with a tribute to his father, who had recently passed away in May of of that year. He is simply the best at setting a game plan and attacking the course accordingly - which leads me to my concern this week actually. 

In 2006, this course was burnt out and Tiger surgically placed irons into these fairways, managing to hit only 1 driver all week and zero fairway bunkers. But today, reports are this place is lush and green, having had a relatively cool and wet summer. And when this course is playing in wet and windy conditions, not only does it get much harder, but there is the need to hit driver off lots of tees. And that concerns me as Driver is Tigers Achilles heel. 

But again - Tiger is the best course manager in the game. He loves Links golf and had a penchant for hitting the shot that is needed at the right time. Also, if he is going to reach his lofty goals of beating Nicklaus' major total of 18, he has to get started again somewhere. I just happen to think it's this week, as he flys a touch under the radar, at a Tiger Woods unheard of price north of 20/1.

(As I get time today I'll post more of these 1 by 1. Makes it easier for me to manage the posts, as I am sending from my phone at work... Damn real life getting in the way!) 

Back soon with another writeup. 

-LinksPicks 

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 19-15-6 4.100
72h 10-9 1.200
Outright 0-13 (6.000)
Top 5-20 5-15 8.375
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +6.675

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1196
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

bwizzle

looks like a few early mornings this weekend!!!!

i have to say, this is probably my favorite just because of the different courses we dont see here in the US!

it will be tough to catch early action, have a great M/G this week, 27 thurs, 18 fri/sat.

good looking board here LP! However i am on a TIGER FADE! I just do not see his game having what it takes to beat this TOP NOTCH field? im sure you will have some input as to his high rank this week? it could just be the fact of the number he is at?

Dustin, FlatBills, and Serg are near the top of my list. I just cant look past BW. Wondering where he may be with your rankings? i know this will not be BOMBS AWAY for the most part, but his shot making along with nice odds, have me going back....

hope we get some peeps talking this around? always a great one to follow!

not a great week last week after a strong start, ended up giving back a bunch on saturday and got lucky sunday to end up plus just under 4 units. i really felt like a PLUS double digits week was on the way! maybe its this week!?!

thanks for sharing your work LP. Perhaps you need to get off US soil to nail the "W"!?!?

will be back!!

GDLK!

Bwizzle

Bwizzle! 

I already have the alarm set for 4am on Thursday and Friday! Literally two of my favorite mornings all year! 

Check out my writeup above on Tiger. I couldn't steer anyone away from a TigerFade as there certainly are glaring concerns. But I just have one of those feelings. Who knows though - my feelings haven't been too great of late! 

Again you gotta trust yourself Bwizzle, but I just don't like Bubba this week. He got over the hurdle a few years ago in this event and has made 3 straight cuts after 2 MCs to start his Open career, but still only has a best of T23. He certainly is creative, but maybe too much so for an Open??? What I mean is I don't really know if hitting 30 yards cuts and draws are ideal in this event. I imagine more of the players that can keep it low, hit bump and runs, and stay out if trouble. Of course Bubba has played fantastic this year - but I just think the way you overpower an Open Venue is far different from the way you overpower Augusta for instance. You need precision and phenomenonal distance control... Of course Bubba can achieve that, but can he marry that with the mental toughness needed when you undoubtedly get a bad bounce here or there leading to a double or worse? I just have my concerns about him in that regard. 

But as I have said before Bwizzle, I haven't seen anything correctly this year it seems, haha. So Bubba prolly wins in blowout fashion!... 

Best of luck this week bro! Expecially in that M-G! Those are the best! Let us know how it goes. 

-LinksPicks 

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 19-15-6 4.100
72h 10-9 1.200
Outright 0-13 (6.000)
Top 5-20 5-15 8.375
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +6.675

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

Damobet
Joined: 01/15/2011
Posts: 162
College Recruit
Not Ranked

Hey guys - Thanks as always Links for the efforts and looking forward to reading more.

I must admit I did a double take this morning when I saw Tiger's price and place in the field. As a play on the number I cannot argue with that. If I were to play on Tiger, I would be looking to Lay him at a lower price after a round or two. We know for sure that any signs of him being on song this week and the price will tumble quickly to single figures. I use Betfair for back to lay options (remember I'm in AUS), I don't know that is available to you in the US. It's a weird feeling having Tiger in the field, certainly adds another dimension to the analysis. I had started getting used to him not being a regular starter and that anyone could win. Bwizzle you could be right, it might be the combination of Tiger and moving offshore to the UK which delivers the W this week! Let's hope so :)

Good luck guys - Damo

LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1196
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Damobet

Hey guys - Thanks as always Links for the efforts and looking forward to reading more.

I must admit I did a double take this morning when I saw Tiger's price and place in the field. As a play on the number I cannot argue with that. If I were to play on Tiger, I would be looking to Lay him at a lower price after a round or two. We know for sure that any signs of him being on song this week and the price will tumble quickly to single figures. I use Betfair for back to lay options (remember I'm in AUS), I don't know that is available to you in the US. It's a weird feeling having Tiger in the field, certainly adds another dimension to the analysis. I had started getting used to him not being a regular starter and that anyone could win. Bwizzle you could be right, it might be the combination of Tiger and moving offshore to the UK which delivers the W this week! Let's hope so :)

Good luck guys - Damo

Always great to see you in here Damo! Always value your opinions - great insight. 

I wish the US had a back to lay market (pretty sure we don't). To be honest I am not too schooled on it, but would love if I could add that to my arsenal. We don't even have E/W betting here! I have to sort of create my own hybrid method by taking Outrights and Top 5s - but even that isn't the same. Not many options over here... Hope that changes soon! 

And I would absolutely welcome a victory this week! Haha. Hoping you and Bwizzle are right with the change of scenery. If I nail one this week, maybe I'll start adding more European Tour events if I have the time! Ha. 

I'm def looking to take Tiger in a matchup too for what it's worth. He may not potentially have enough in the tank to win, but I def see him making the cut and contending. I mean across his entire career he has made 65 of 70 cuts in majors. And across the board in all matches I see he is +$$$.  Might take a shot. 

Good luck this week boss! And I look forward to reading more of your insights! 

-LinksPicks 

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 19-15-6 4.100
72h 10-9 1.200
Outright 0-13 (6.000)
Top 5-20 5-15 8.375
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +6.675

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1196
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Sergio Garcia - 26/1

"I don't know... I'm playing against a lot of guys out there, more than the field." (2007 Open Championship) 

"I'm not good enough... I don't have the thing I need to have. In 13 years I've come to the conclusion that I need to play for second or third place." (2012 Masters) 

So maybe I should have taken him Top 5 then??? Hahaha.. Purely inspiring words from Sergio earlier in his career. He clearly had some 'demons' - but it appears life is much better for El Nino these days. And I'd argue that maybe he is the most 'due' for a major victory - perhaps you could argue Westwood as well. 

He certainly has had his fair share of success in the Open - having made 13 of 17 cuts leading to 7 Top 10s. He also finished T5 on this very track back in 2006, and I would argue he is far more equipped (mentally and physically) to win this time around. Having faced the demons and still been successful in Majors (9 Top 5s and 18 Top 10s across all 4), it would seem that Sergios time is now. That's part of the reason coming into this year that I played him To Win Any Major at 26/1. You can get a better price of 27/1 right now actually for the Open. 

He also has a bit of recent form having gone 35, 2, 12 his last 3 events. 

You simply can't argue what an enormous weight would be off his shoulders if he was kissing the Claret Jug come Sunday evening. And although he has had some terrible moments with the media and fellow competitors - I have always rooted for Sergio. It's not often you see players these days that are soooo genuine to a fault. He has learned from his mistakes. He appears to be happy with his life. And he will win a major soon. Hopefully as soon as Sunday. May the Golfing God's be with him... 

-LinksPicks 

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 19-15-6 4.100
72h 10-9 1.200
Outright 0-13 (6.000)
Top 5-20 5-15 8.375
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +6.675

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

JoeD
Joined: 12/30/2011
Posts: 363
All American
Not Ranked

Hey Links, great stuff as always, thanks for your efforts.

I've got a buddy over there and he said they are looking at rain late on Friday and into Saturday. 'Capping the weather in this tourney is huge. So far...it's only Tuesday...it looks like the guys that play late Thursday and early Friday will have an advantage over the guys that play early Thursday and late on Friday.

As far as outright winners go.....the numbers never seem to be in favor of the gambler....but that being said, I will gladly take Tiger at 20-1 for the next ten years. Good arguments can be made for a ton of guys, but for me, it's the longer odds that make the most sense. I'm on Keegan Bradley at 60-1.

Thanks as always Links, have a good week -

Joe D

SOUR
Joined: 08/01/2011
Posts: 4866
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Man don't we just feel like DJ or Rivkie are going to catch one soon. Great values bets IMO. BoL to you!

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
NFL154111358.112749.00
igotrived1
Joined: 09/08/2012
Posts: 33
Waterboy
Not Ranked

Let's do this!! Good to see you up and running with enthusiasm early, links. One of my favorite golf tournaments of the year, as you have the option to watch golf in the AM, take a quick power nap, and tee off for some twilight action in the PM!! What more could you ask?

Real tempted to fire on Justin Rose over Rory for the tournament. More to do, but after some quick digging I realized that Rory hasn't put 4 rounds together this year, although the results and his scoring average have been solid. Rory has a t-2 with a 74, t-7 with a 74, t-8 with a 77 (masters), t-8 with a 76, and t-15 with a 78. Throw in the fact that Rory played about as well as David Duval in his last Open and I'm close to sold.

Justin looked so in control last week, and if he can strike the ball half as well as he did last week he should have no problem keeping the ball in play and avoiding the pot bunkers. I could be wrong but Rory still just seems fractionally off this year, and if Justin is on top of his game I'll take a shot with him. Taking Rose over young Rory in a 72 hole match...Oh yeah JoeD, his tee times are late early and Rory is early late!

Best of luck all! Looking forward to reading more, Links!

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