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John Deere Classic - LinksPicks (-.25u)

John Deere Classic - LinksPicks (-.25u)
bwizzle
Joined: 01/12/2011
Posts: 1980
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

damn!

picked the wrong day to go against Jordie!!

i can feel the Stefani F-UP coming!! hang in there LP!!

GDLK!

Bwizzle

bwizzle
Joined: 01/12/2011
Posts: 1980
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

damn jordan! now i am double mad that my winners were off the board and he is beating me today for a couple units!!! thats golf!!

pm plays

P2 over Langley (not shying away from p2 here! plus 110!)

bdj over Stroud (sorry LP, you know i love me some BDJ!!)

ZJ over moore (back to the well today!)

English over Senden (ditto)

Harman over Martin

want to take a shot at Booo over Na, at PLUS 150, there is NO WAY Na should be laying that much chalk! BUT i already have Boo in the tourney h2h...still working on that one. Any insight?

need to catch a couple breaks in the am plays to stay POSITIVE!!!!

GDLK!

Bwizzle

LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1155
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

2 observations from yesterday before I get into any picks for today.

1 - I forced the Garrigus pick late, and it cost me. I was at work, and wanted to follow a match early in the day. I liked it, but have a feeling I reached because I wanted something to follow in the office. I should have just stuck with my Stroud pick. But instead, Garrigus loses, and yesterday I went 1-1 for -.3u. Frustrating, but a stupid mental mistake.

2 - Billy Hurley III birdied 16 and 17 to take a 1 shot lead in his 72h play --- only to miss a 6 footer for par on 18 to push that match vs Streelman, as both missed the cut. Again - FRUSTRATING!

Will be back soon with 3rd Rd Plays. But currently on all completed plays I am up +2.7u - that BH3 miss really sucks though! And English / Stroud don't appear to be doing too much - so need a couple low rounds from them today.

Back soon!

-LinksPicks

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 4-3-1 0.600
72h 4-0 8.500
Outright 0-3 (1.500)
Top 5-20 1-3 1.875
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +9.475

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

Damobet
Joined: 01/15/2011
Posts: 161
College Recruit
Not Ranked

Hey Links/All,

Thanks for the good wishes earlier, much appreciated. Fingers crossed the health recovery gives me some solid PGA time in the coming 4-6 weeks :)

An up and down tournament so far, I like your reflections, always good to look back with 20/20 and take some lessons from it. 3-2 on my 18h plays which is okay given I much rather the Saturday / Sunday action and will be putting my head down as well over the next few hours.

Good luck all and have a great weekend.

- Damo

LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1155
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

3rd Round Plays - each 1u

Will MacKenzie *4* (-120) v Greg Chalmers *150*

Charles Howell III *5* (+120) v Ryan Moore *54*

Kevin Na *23* (+140) v Jordan Spieth *98*

William McGirt *42* (+105) v Steven Bowditch *125*

 

Honestly - I know its a big card today.... But there were so many more match-ups I liked that I had to cut down - and really had a hard time getting to these 4. But some great value here. Not only do we have 3 dogs today, but we also have big advantages in 3rd Rd Scoring (numbers between the **). 

Not going to lie though - I really hate taking Na over Spieth - because I really like Jordan and I am not a huge fan of Kevin.... But Jordan has struggled on Saturdays this year (70.81 scoring average), with it not only being his worst round scoring average wise, but on my count 6 times this year he has shot 73 or higher (three times above 75). Also - again by my count, Kevin has shot 70 or lower in the 3rd Rd on 9 of 14 occasions where he has seen the weekend. I just see way too much value in +140 not to fire... But of course Jordan prolly becomes the first person to shoot 58 today, haha...

Big card today. Hoping Stricker extends his lead over Spieth in the 72h play - and hoping English or Stroud goes low to to set up maybe a backdoor Top 5 finish tomorrow... A guy can dream right?? ha.

Good luck to everyone today! I've got a fresh dozen Shiner Bock's in the fridge just waiting to be cracked - its 5 o'clock somewhere, right???

-LinksPicks

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 4-3-1 0.600
72h 4-0 8.500
Outright 0-3 (1.500)
Top 5-20 1-3 1.875
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +9.475

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1155
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

With a wedge in his hands and up 1 in his match vs Moore, CH3 hit it to 30 feet - then proceeded to 3 jack. Took what could have been a 3-1 day for +2.25u, to a 2-1-1 day and +1.05u. 

I'll never be unhappy about winning money. But frustrating that we were a 2-putt from 30 feet away from a far better day. As is though, with Stricker up 5 over Spieth and Stroud/English completely out of it... If all holds its looking like a +3.75u week. Granted Stricker has to hold off Spieth. We shall see how that goes... 

I'm not gonna lie - I have to be completely 150% in love with a final round play to post it tonight/tomorrow. Outside of my terrible record in futures this year - 4th Rd plays have been my worst work. I'll obviously take a look, but gonna have to fall in love with a play to fire on it. 

If I have anything I'll check back in. But until then - hope you all have a great Saturday night! Time to head out for some great Italian and a lovely bottle of Red. 

-LinksPicks 

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 4-3-1 0.600
72h 4-0 8.500
Outright 0-3 (1.500)
Top 5-20 1-3 1.875
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +9.475

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

RAYMOND LAFLAMME
Joined: 04/01/2008
Posts: 915
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

hey links. sounds like you are on a better track this week. i have been unexpectedly busy and out of commission as to golf gambling.lost a little last week. am psyched for next.

rickardodry
Joined: 04/30/2013
Posts: 309
College Varsity
Not Ranked

links that was a bad beat with howell

gl tomorrow

LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1155
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Been doing some extensive work this morning. First I looked at the final rd matches and liked Sooooooo many. But decided to lay low today and just see if Stricker can hold Spieth off. The 3 possibilities for this tournament are -.25 (Stricker loses), +1.75u (Stricker draws), or +3.75u (Stricker wins). 

Secondly I have continued to dig into next week's Open Championship... And I hope you all follow me on Twitter as my first play was posted last week - Fowler at 50/1. I said I felt he had a good Scottish Open in him, and didn't think 50/1 would be available for long. Watching some of that event this morning and he has put together back to back good rounds - certainly has it pointed in the right direction. Not too mention he has been playing very well over the last 2 years in Majors - including a 5th at the Masters and 2nd at the US Open this year. 

Really excited for next week... But gotta get Stricker to the finish line this week. Would really like to go into the 3rd major on a little bit of form myself! 

Good luck today everyone! Have a great Sunday! 

-LinksPicks 

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 4-3-1 0.600
72h 4-0 8.500
Outright 0-3 (1.500)
Top 5-20 1-3 1.875
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +9.475

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1155
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

There is something horribly wrong with my picks on Sundays. Like I have to be cursed somehow, haha. I simply have no explanation. 

I was up 5 with a guy who literally owns this course... And he has yet to make a birdie thru 15 and is one of 2 guys over Par in the Top 30 or so!!!? I'd venture a guess to say that Stricker has never played the first 15 holes here without a single birdie. Ever. 

Thats just the way things have gone here recently. Looking at a small -.25u loss this week. 

Trying hard to remain optimistic... But this has been a tough run recently. I'm very excited for next week - but today certainly puts a sour taste in my mouth... 

-LinksPicks 

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 4-3-1 0.600
72h 4-0 8.500
Outright 0-3 (1.500)
Top 5-20 1-3 1.875
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +9.475

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

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