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Andre Gomes World Cup Brazil v Netherlands FREE Play

Thread Starter Andre Gomes World Cup Brazil v Netherlands FREE Play
andre gomes
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I’ll use this thread to publish all my preview articles about the upcoming World Cup, including any potential future play for the tournament. Please, feel free to comment or make any question, thanks!  Yes

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andre gomes
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GROUP G:

(Odds to win the group via @Pinnaclesports)

Germany             -150 | 1.67
Portugal              +245 | 3.45
Ghana                  +970 | 10.70
USA                      +1350 | 14.5


This is considered to be one of the “groups of death” of the tournament alongside with Groups B & D. 

Germany is the clear favorite and one of the best teams in the tournament. It would be a major surprise for me if they failed not only to advance to the next round, but also to make a serious challenge to the title. 

They have a stable structure under NT’s coach Joachim Loew and their amazing depth is probably their biggest strength. We are dealing with one of the most fun teams to watch in the world that plays with a tremendous pace and verticality in a completely offensive minded system. 

This team is loaded with several Bayern Munchen players who are coming from a dominating domestic season, but crashed out of Champions League play in a dismal semifinal performance against Real Madrid. While that loss was a major disappointment for them as after all, they were the clear favorites to win (repeat) the Champions League in this season, note that we are dealing with relatively “fresh” & rested players and ultimately, this could be a major factor for the tournament! For example, while both Cristiano Ronaldo & Lionel Messi logged more than 2500 minutes in the Spanish domestic league in this season, Gotze, Schweinsteiger, Kroos and/or Muller didn’t even reach the 2200-minutes mark in the Bundesliga. 

Still there are some potential problems for them: Sami Khedira is a key player on their midfield and despite being fit, he was sidelined five-months with a knee injury. His performance @ final of Champions League didn’t impress me at all!; Despite all their superior depth, especially with offensive minded midfielders, this team doesn’t have the proper depth @ striker position! Most likely, Germany will start with Miroslav Klose on the front, who will turn 36-years old next week – not a good sign for them! 

My home country Portugal is dealing with the potential terrible news that Cristiano Ronaldo could be severely banged up. There is a lot of counter information regarding this health, so we should proceed with caution. Nevertheless, his last games for Real Madrid were painful to watch because CR7 was far from being 100% fit. 

Portugal doesn’t have much depth on the roster. Actually, this is a team with “only” 5 world class players and a bunch of “decent” players (CR7, Pepe, Coentrao, Moutinho and Nani), so they need badly those 5 players to step up big time, and this could be a problem: CR7 is banged up; Pepe missed the CL’s final due to an injury, Moutinho disappointed @ Monaco in his first season and Nani wasn’t an option in his club (Man Utd). 

The good news is that Portugal is one of the better organized and tactically sounded teams in the world. They know exactly what to do on the field, and their work-rate is pretty impressive for a European team. Basically, they put 10 hard workers players + CR7 on the field, and they are deadly in the counter attack! Just have a look of Portugal’ goals against Sweden in the playoffs to have an idea (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ot7YbwrV4ww). 

This ability of Portugal to produce goals in quick transition moves could be lethal against USA and Ghana, because these two teams’ loves to play wide open and will be exposed in the back. 

USA has shown some major defensive problems that could be dramatic at this level. The overall inexperience of their defensive back line has been quite evident in these latest friendly games against “better teams”. Bradley and Jones are a decent duo on the midfield but don’t have the proper creativity to make the difference; Altidore works hard and his off the movements are pretty sharp but his lack of scoring ability is just too damaging! 

Ghana is way more dangerous in my opinion than USA. They are a relatively young team but with some vastly experience at his major level. Note that the majority of these players have won the U20 World Cup in 2009 in Egypt. 

They have a (natural) physical advantage over their opponents that could be important and they play in a high tempo. Their midfield unit is pretty impressive with Sulley Muntari,Kwadwo Asamoah, Kevin-Prince Boateng and Michael Essien, so they will create plenty of chances to score. 

The biggest problem for them in on the defensive side… their Goalkeeper is inexperienced at this level and the positioning of their defensive back unit isn’t consistent. Unlike Portugal for example, this team has some problems to be in-game consistent and is prone to commit individual errors.

With a healthy Cristiano Ronaldo, both Germany and Portugal would be “locks” to advance to the next round… Ghana is the clear outsider of this group while USA looks to me as the worst team of the group by some margin. To make any kind of future play without knowing the "real" status of Cristiano Ronaldo is worthless in my opinion.

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Soljadown
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Love the write up bro..

I know USA has to prove them selves to many non-believers.. but the worst team in the group? I guess you have a good argument since Ghana has beat USA in there last two competitive competitions. 

Ghana's offense is not going to scare anyone with a young (#13) Jordan Ayew [age 22] up front in the 4-2-3-1.. but USA does have a back four that could be considered as suspect. As long as this USA defense play together and communicate then the clean sheet is very possible. 

Regardless of Ghana beating us in the past.. I promise they will not get this 3rd in a row so that leaves us with a Draw or USA victory, I see USA taking all 3 points and a Portugal with out CR7 can get the business too.

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andre gomes
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Some fair points Soljadown...

I've watched USA's last game against Turkey, and even though USA clearly improved their defensive positioning in the second half, I really didn't like the way they allowed so many "space" especially from the wings. This could be a problem against teams w/ talented wingers that plays with width, and unfortunately, Germany, Portugal and Ghana have all great offensive ability from the flanks. 

Note also, that the first game between USA & Ghana will be played at Estadio Das Dunas in Natal, and humidity could be a problem for the players with an average of 97% humidity in June. Possibly this could ended up being more favorable to Ghana than USA...

However, I just can't deny that USA has some personal business to handle against Ghana Wink

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andre gomes
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This is my First Play of the Tournament:

SOCCER - World Cup Future Play
 
GROUP E:

(Odds to win the group via @Pinnaclesports)

France                                -134 |  1.75
Switzerland                        +266  |  3.66
Ecuador                              +377 |  4.77
Honduras                          +2000 |  21.0

I understand that France has been a major disappointment in the last few years, and their performance in South Africa 4 years ago was laughable w/ some bizarre off-the- field stuff, just read this two articles: (http://www.theguardian.com/football/2010/jun/20/france-raymond-domenech-nicolas-anelka & http://www.theguardian.com/football/2012/nov/19/raymond-domenech-france-2010-world-cup)

However, this is a new team and more importantly, they have a good coach in Didier Deschamps that simply doesn’t allow any sign of indiscipline. In a controversial decision, Deschamps left out Manchester City’s star Samir Nasri because he believes team spirit is key to winning. In the playoffs, France was almost humiliated @Ukraine by losing 0-2, but they bounced back in France and won 3-0 and secured the qualification. Nasri started in the first game and had a terrible performance, while he didn’t play in the second game at home, so the correlation is pretty clear for me.

I was about to send this play earlier and being a Triple Dime Play, but the injury and absence of Franck Ribery was indeed a major blow for them. Nevertheless, I still think that we have some value in them to win the group as my fair line in here is France having 60% of chances to be #1 in the group @ -150 odds.

I really love France’s midfield trio on the center of the field w/ Matuidi, Pogba and Cabaye. These three players can defend and attack with great quality, and they impose a great tempo to the game – something pivotal in today’s preferred style of play. Ribery is gone, but it looks like Benzema “connects” pretty well with Olivier Giroud on the front as both players are great passers despite being strikers.

Regarding their opponents…

Switzerland is a well organized team that will be tough to score against them but they don’t have a plan “B” if things don’t go well for them. Besides Shaqiri, they don’t have the proper talent on the front to create chances to score in “open plays”. I wouldn’t be surprised if they can get a quality outcome vs. France, but I expect them to struggle against Honduras and Ecuador as they will have the “onus” to be the favorite team and is “forced” to win the game– something that doesn’t fit well in their overall mindset and game plan.

Honduras is by far the weakest team in the group, and probably of the whole tournament…

Ecuador is the “wild card” of the group. They have qualified in 3 of the 4 last WC’s, so they have some experience in this superior level. They are a great “home team” that benefits from the fact that they play in altitude to crush their opponents. The good news for them is that the first game of the group against the Swiss’s will be played @Brasilia - Altitude: 1,172m (3,845ft), so they might have some physical edge in that first game.  Ecuador plays an exciting style of football using their wingers quite often (their best player Valencia plays in Man Utd), but in my opinion they are vulnerable on the back. In 2014 (all friendly games), they have allowed 3, 1, 3 and 2 goals!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on France to win Group E @ -128 / 1.79 on Bookmaker

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Johnny Detroit
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Andre, you might be the best in the industry in providing analysis with your selections.......

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gaff
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Great work AG.  Much appreciated.

Slove5107
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Love the Analysis AG. Question for you about Over/Unders...

In World Cup 2010, only 2 matches in the opening round of group play had more than 2 goals. Do you lean more towards the under in the first round of games in the group stage?

Some of the reasons I can think of off the top of my head is nerves, teams not wanting to lose the first match of group play, and adjustment to the climate/pitch.

Any thoughts on that? Thanks!

andre gomes
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Slove5107

Love the Analysis AG. Question for you about Over/Unders...

In World Cup 2010, only 2 matches in the opening round of group play had more than 2 goals. Do you lean more towards the under in the first round of games in the group stage?

Some of the reasons I can think of off the top of my head is nerves, teams not wanting to lose the first match of group play, and adjustment to the climate/pitch.

Any thoughts on that? Thanks!

Hi Slove,

The first round of games in the World Cup is indeed prone to be “underish”. However, the oddsmakers are certainly aware of it, and only the game between Argentina and Iran had a totals line reaching the 3-goals mark.

You have said it all about it: “teams not wanting to lose the first match of group play”. This is major factor for such conservatism from teams; they don’t want to take many risks in the first game knowing that a potential loss in the first game would put them in a major hole.

Still, I don’t expect this World Cup to be similar to the previous one w/ such low scoring games at the start. If you remember, the tournament was played @ South Africa in the WINTER! There were some stadiums in high altitude, and we simply can’t forget the “Vuvuzelas” factor (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8ir8qzm7z4!!! It was truly annoying all the noise, damn! Teams needed some time to adjust and obviously, the first games were painful to watch… I don’t expect this to happen in this tournament.

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andre gomes
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I've just released one play for today:
 
SOCCER World Cup - Brazil vs. Croatia
 
Play #1
 
***FREE PREMIUM PLAY***
 
NOTE: detailed write up to be released soon

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Croatia AH (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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