Handicapping The Match Play Championship can be very different than that of a traditional stroke play event. You do have to account for horses for courses and past history in the event and at the particular venue but if your guy has a few bad holes, the whole match can be lost in one day without the ability to come back the next day and try to bounce back. So I am going to look at some basics in my handicapping of The Accenture and that is hitting it straight, hitting it far, hitting greens, and putting. Some of the statistics like scrambling, sand saves, and the more obscure metrics don't hold as much weight here for me because one is in truly a head to head game with a direct opponent - and so often, if not every hole of the match - how one's opponent hits his or her shot, will factor into how you are going to make your shot from a strategic standpoint. Tough stuff. So again, we are going to keep it simple and see if slow, steady, and straight - can win the race.
We have a video containing three (3) FREE PICKS for The Match Play and they can be viewed here..
We have eight (8) Premium Plays up in our package that can be found here..
Keep in mind, our first match in the package begins early, around 7am Pacific Time on Wednesday. Our final play in the package starts around 10:30am Pacific Time. We will continue to post new plays for each round as the tournament makes its way toward a champion on Sunday.
LOVE this Match Play format. Enjoy the golf and have fun!
Hit it far is right! 7849 yards of elevation changes, every type of bunker you can imagine and greens that only Jack Nicklaus could configure. True desert golf means not just sand, but being able to play off some hard pack and jumping cholla! Having a bad round?? Pack your bags, there is no tomorrow. Some players thrive and some players dive! And BRACKETS!!!! That makes it something the non-golf follower can get a grip on. I see a couple of plays I like on Wednesday, if you don't mind laying the number.
Ian Poulter -170 over Rickie Fowler. Rickie better find a new, new swing soon. Poulter is a solid Ryder Cup player every year.
Jason Dufner -140 over Scott Stallings. Dufner is deadly with his irons and Stallings has a win this season, but has not finished well in any other event.
If you are looking for a winning pick, you need to pay attention to how the brackets line up, and who has actually been in this hemisphere this week! That being said, my long shots would be Jason Dufner +5500 and Graham DeLaet +4500. DeLaet continues to make noise every week and will be heard from a lot as the season progresses.
Rory McIlory is the favorite, but NO ONE is hotter than Dustin Johnson +2037.(Except the future Mrs. Johnson, Paulina Gretzky)
The real action at Dove Valley seems to happen on the 345 yd. par 4, 15th hole. If you are a couple holes behind, you go for it here. Many players can reach this green for an eagle attempt. At the same time, you can blow it here and be three holes down with three holes left...No pressure.
The conditions are going to be great. Temps from 80-84 degrees, mild wind. Endurance IS a big deal here. If you are jet-lagged from traveling abroad, you will feel it on about your 30th hole Saturday. It's a great event to place wagers on the daily match ups, and send whiners like Sergio packing!!
got my brackets filled out I like Speith, And English to go a long way. a couple longshots George Couetzee, Woodland, also Jonas Blixt. Ryan Moore could win here as well IMO!!!
Good stuff, Gentlemen. I like them all.
Have fun.. they kick it off in less than an hour!
Great work, Damon812. I knew you had a nice looking card and you should have won with Gary Woodland too. I nearly played that match and am thanking my lucky stars I did not as I would have gone berserk. I have 8-plays up for Round Two..
Thank you and have fun,
Louis Oothuizen (+110) over Jason Day
Toughest one I see on the board. Either pass or take the dog as it ought to be a knock down, drag out. Day is out toughing his opponents while Louie is scoring in bunches, going 4, 5, and 6-under par in his three matches. Jason Day has the better history here but Oothuizen's is not shabby and he's plowed through a Semi-Murderer's Row of opponents to get here.. certainly a bigger line up that what Day has been dealt... the point is that this could go either way - but I am going to simply lean with the red hot Louie who is striping it and scoring. In a draw, let's lean with the underdog.
Three (3) Premium Plays are up here now.. http://pregame.com/pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=86670#capper
Taking Sunday off as I was just too busy on Saturday to put in any work on today's Final Four. Obviously the semis have already started but my initial reaction was to take Fowler as the dog and Dubuisson as I just can't believe how Ernie is even still here.
Enjoy the action today and have fun.