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Farmers Insurance Open --- LinksPicks (-.85u)

Thread Starter Farmers Insurance Open --- LinksPicks (-.85u)
LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1159
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Top 500 Contributor

Hey Everyone!

The next tournament on the schedule is the Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines in La Jolla, Cali. The tournament is a bit unique in that it is played on 2 courses - yet 3 of the Rounds are played on 1 course. On Thursday & Friday, the players will tee it up once on each of the North and South courses - but the 2 weekend rounds are played on the South Course exclusively. The 2 courses are quite different too. The South Course is the more famous of the 2 having hosted the 2008 US Open where Tiger Woods beat Rocco Mediate in an 18 hole playoff. Not only is it more famous, it is absolutely more difficult - having played a full 2 strokes harder during the 2013 Farmers. It measures just under 7,700 yards and plays as the longest course on the PGA Tour. The North Course is one where the players have to take advantage and go low on the 1 day it is played. At over 600 yards shorter, yet still a Par 72, there is no mistaking the fact that players need to make birdies here. As we found out last week though, it seems we will not be able to take advantage of the different courses during 18h matches - as even if they are posted it seems that books will not take action on players playing 2 different courses. So we have to take that into account this weekend.

Of course - this is one of Tiger's places. Having won at Torrey 8 times - that 2.5/1 number next to his name is not a mistake. Even though he has been so successful here - I am going to play the wait n see game with him. I will take a look at his number after each round to see if the value is there. At 2.5/1 --- I just can't see making a play on him. And unfortunately 5dimes hasn't posted a W/out Woods market as of this writing. I am still holding out hope for that, but in the meantime the capping must continue. I have a few small plays on players I really like, and will be taking a good long look at the Top5/10 markets... You know -- just in case Tiger decides to break another record and win for the 9th time at this complex.

The courses aren't too tough off the tee and we are not worried about the rough this week. And with the length of the South Course, I think Driving Distance is very important (Tiger was 2nd in the field last year). The greens are pretty small, so we want guys with high Greens in Regulation percentages. And of course no matter where you play, if you putt well you are probably finishing high on the leaderboard. Of course it seems simplistic to say Hit it Far and Knock It On... But take a look at the Top 5 names in Driving Distance and GIR from the Farmers last year, and where they ultimately finished. I also added in Driving Accuracy to you can see that it finding the short stuff isn't extremely important this week.

Driving Distance

Robert Garrigus – T6 / Tiger Woods – WON / Dustin Johnson – T51 / CH3 – T9 / Nick Watney – T4

Greens In Regulation

CH3 – T9 / Robert Garrigus – T6 / Bill Haas – T9 / Nicolas Thompson – T21 / Cameron Tringale – T27

Driving Accuracy

Bryce Molder - T68 / Boo Weekley - T34 / Jin Park - T44 / Steve LeBrun - T84 / Brandt Snedeker T2

 

So far I only have 2 picks To Win. I am still going to wait n see about Tiger, and also am hoping for that W/Out Woods market. But for now here is what I got! (***A reminder that this week I have used 13/14 PGA Tour Stats where available. If those are not available, I have defaulted to 12/13 stats, and will state as such***)

 

TO WIN BETS

Keegan Bradley - 36/1 (.5 unit)

- Keegan is known as a long and straight hitter. Of course we are not as worried about the straight ball off the tee this week - but it surely can't hurt. He is 5th on my board this week with the following breakdown: Strokes Gained Putting (5th), Driving Distance (22nd) and Greens In Regulation (73rd). He has 2 Top 25s at this event in the last 3 years, and 3 Top 18s in his last 4 tournaments overall. A proven winner, Keegan should be able to take advantage of his length off the tee at Torrey.

Hunter Mahan - 42/1 (.5 unit)

- Hunter doesn't hit it as long as I would like (73rd on Tour last year in Driving Distance), but he hits a ton of greens (25th) and is a fantastic putter (27th). Hunter has a great track record at Torrey with a Course Form of 15,6,6,27,11 over his last 5 years. He has not teed it up in a little while, but does own a Recent Form of 13,12 his last 2 times out. We have another proven winner here with Hunter - and I think that's what it is going to take in order to grab a title away from Tiger on one of his courses.

 

It's a little weird this week with not having a lot of To Win selections... but I really feel that to put a lot of money in play against Tiger right now is silly. The likelihood is that he wins, as he just owns this place. But I'd really like to see him tread water during Round 1 and be able to grab him for a couple units more along 5/1 odds. I am also anxiously awaiting the Top 5/10 market, as the list of players I like this week is long. I already have Walker, Matsuyama, CH3, and Pretty Ricky circled as 'must play' in those markets. Hopefully with Tiger being included the great value we are seeing in these Outright picks follows into other markets. And we also may get that W/Out Woods market --- but I am not counting on it.

 

So that's it for now. Stay tuned as I know there will be some more action in here as those other markets get posted. Obviously we have 72h and 18h plays coming, but I don't think To Win or Place bets are done yet!

 

Good luck everyone! Get that Money!

 

-LinksPicks

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 4-3-1 0.600
72h 4-0 8.500
Outright 0-3 (1.500)
Top 5-20 1-3 1.875
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +9.475

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

PS63
Joined: 12/10/2009
Posts: 925
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

Looking forward to your selections and write ups. Good Luck this week!

LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1159
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

PS63

Looking forward to your selections and write ups. Good Luck this week!

Thanks so much for checking in PS! Should have some 72h plays up shortly, and have begun the First Round Play process this morning.. And of course still waiting on those Top 5/10 markets which have yet to be posted.... But a lot to come today. So sit back and get the popcorn ready! haha. 

Best of luck to you this weekend PS! Hope we can Get that Money together!

-LinksPicks

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 4-3-1 0.600
72h 4-0 8.500
Outright 0-3 (1.500)
Top 5-20 1-3 1.875
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +9.475

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

bwizzle
Joined: 01/12/2011
Posts: 1981
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Super Stuff! As always LP!! I like those 2 WIN plays! I am going to be looking today as to my "board"!

very strange, but i have top 10 finish odds up which is usually just for majors? for a peek see below. a few grab my eye, but will put out with the other plays later today!

GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 BEN CRANE +600

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73052 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 BILL HAAS +180

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73053 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 BILLY HORSCHEL +300

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73054 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 BRANDT SNEDEKER +160

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73055 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 BRENDON DE JONGE +600

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73056 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 BRENDON TODD +600

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73057 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 BRIAN STUARD +400

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73058 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 BUBBA WATSON +180

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73059 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 CHARLES HOWELL III +350

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73060 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 CHARLEY HOFFMAN +350

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73061 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 FREDDIE JACOBSON +800

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73062 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 GARY WOODLAND +350

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73063 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO +700

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73064 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 GRAHAM DELAET +300

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73065 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 HIDEKI MATSUYAMA +400

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73066 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 HIDETO TANIHARA +1000

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73067 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 HUNTER MAHAN +200

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73068 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 IAN POULTER +300

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73069 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 JASON DAY +180

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73070 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 JIMMY WALKER +200

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73071 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 JOHN HUH +800

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73072 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 JOHN PETERSON +700

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73073 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 JONAS BLIXT +800

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73074 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 JORDAN SPIETH +200

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73075 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 JUSTIN LEONARD +600

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73076 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 K.J. CHOI +600

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73077 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 KEEGAN BRADLEY +175

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73078 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 KEVIN CHAPPELL +800

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73079 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 LEE WESTWOOD +300

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73080 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 LUKE GUTHRIE +600

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73081 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 MARC LEISHMAN +300

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73082 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 MARTIN LAIRD +700

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73083 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 MATT JONES +600

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73084 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 MICHAEL KIM +1250

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73085 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 NICK WATNEY +200

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73086 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 NICOLAS COLSAERTS +800

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73087 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 PAT PEREZ +800

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73088 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 PHIL MICKELSON +110

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73089 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 RICKIE FOWLER +300

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73090 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 ROBERT GARRIGUS +600

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73091 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 ROBERTO CASTRO +800

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73092 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 RORY SABBATINI +1000

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73093 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 RYO ISHIKAWA +800

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73094 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 SEUNG-YUL NOH +1000

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73095 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 TIGER WOODS -400

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73096 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 VICTOR DUBUISSON +600

 Jan 23 - 8:00 AM  73097 GOLF - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - TOP 10 VIJAY SINGH +800

a bit messy but here it is LOL!! GDLK! Will be back!

Bwizzle

LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1159
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Bwizzle!

Thanks so much for posting this. At the very least when 5d posts them they should be in the ballpark of these - so I can start my capping now. I really appreciate it..

So just a few thoughts if you did want to place a wager or 2 here...

-Rickie Fowler at 3/1 is decent. Was hoping for slightly better odds there and I may go into the Top 5 market for him as his recent form at Torrey is 6,13,20,5... So clearly he likes it here.

-Very short odds for Jimmy Walker --- but he is 2nd on my board this week and has a 4th and 8th the last 2 years at Torrey. Might be another look in the Top 5 market.

-CH3 - Again these are short odds, but Chucky has 5 Top 9s at Torrey.

Depending on where the lines fall on my board --- I wouldn't mind throwing a unit at each of those 3. I think it's highly likely 1 comes thru, and I could see all 3 placing in the Top 10.

I am hoping 5d posts soon as now I have an idea of where to go with these and am looking forward to it! Thanks Bwizzle!

Back with 72h plays soon!

-LinksPicks

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 4-3-1 0.600
72h 4-0 8.500
Outright 0-3 (1.500)
Top 5-20 1-3 1.875
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +9.475

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

bwizzle
Joined: 01/12/2011
Posts: 1981
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

NORMALLY these are LOW as to what i see or you post. hope whatever you decide...YOU NAIL EM!! I will be back!! GDLK!

Bwizzle

ps

curious about RG? he is 60-1 to win on my board. I usually do not play the LS this early in the season....BUT is this worth a shot??!?!? I THINK IT MAY BE!!!!?

LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1159
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

bwizzle

NORMALLY these are LOW as to what i see or you post. hope whatever you decide...YOU NAIL EM!! I will be back!! GDLK!

Bwizzle

ps

curious about RG? he is 60-1 to win on my board. I usually do not play the LS this early in the season....BUT is this worth a shot??!?!? I THINK IT MAY BE!!!!?

Well if your analysis thinks its worth a shot -- I may sprinkle it too.. He is 130-1 on 5d!

I actually probably will take him in the Top 10 market. He is ranked 8th on my board this week, and had a 6th place finish here last year. The MC last week is a bit worrisome --- but at this course his length is key. He can bomb it and not worry too much where it goes.

I also don't hate him in a 72h match against Crane... Probably will be on the final list. Hope to get those out real soon!

-LinksPicks

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 4-3-1 0.600
72h 4-0 8.500
Outright 0-3 (1.500)
Top 5-20 1-3 1.875
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +9.475

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

LinksPicks
Joined: 06/29/2013
Posts: 1159
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

72H Plays - each 2u

Rickie Fowler (-130) v Gary Woodland

-Rickie is higher on my board than Gary, leading him in Driving Distance (14v31) and Strokes Gained Putting (44v153). Now I am not saying Rickie hits the ball farther than Gary, but he can def move it and I was shocked to see him hitting it further than Gary during the young season. Granted that might have to do with Gary hitting less than Driver in certain spots, but the most important take away is that Rickie can take it deep, averaging over 300 yards currently. He has the big advantage in Course Form (6,13,20,5 v 27,mc,58,mc), and both have similar Recent Form (Fowler with the best finish (8th) 6 weeks ago). Rickie clearly likes it at Torrey, and as those who have followed me know - I always love taking the best putter in a matchup. 

Hunter Mahan (-130) v Lee Westwood

-This is one of those huge statistical mismatches here between Hunter and Lee (using last years stats as they haven't qualified yet for 13/14 stats). Even though they hit it around the same distance off the tee (73v69), Hunter has a huge advantage in GIR (25v91) and a gigantic one in Strokes Gained Putting (27v168) - where Lee was one of the worst on Tour last year. Lee hasn't teed it up at Torrey since he finished 3rd in the US Open in 2008, whereas Hunter has absolutely fantastic Course Form over the last 5 years (15,6,6,27,11). Both haven't played for quite a while, but within the last 2 months Hunter has a 13th and 12th, where Lee has a 16th - so pretty similar Recent Form. I like Hunter to have a huge week here as evidenced by my Outright play on him -- so it's not shocking that I am also taking him here.

Ryo Ishikawa (-105) v Rory Sabbatini

-An across the board mismatch. Ryo leads Rory in Greens In Regulation (4v110), Driving Distance (9v48), and even in his worst stat Strokes Gained Putting (134v152). Ryo has played here each of the last 2 years with mixed results (mc,13), where Rory has only played twice since 2009 sporting a 44th and mc. Ryo has had some great Recent Form (25,mc,15,26,5,2,18), where Rory during the same time frame has been suspect (38,mc,3,70). I love the underdog price too!

Hudson Swafford (-120) v John Huh

-What I believe to be a candidate for Breakout Star this year on the PGA Tour, Hudson has a statistical sweep here vs Huh. Greens In Regulation (17v126), Driving Distance (41v93), and Strokes Gained Putting (79v90). Huh has an advantage in Course Form having gone 60,6 the last 2 years while Hudson will tee it up at Torrey for this first time this week... But Hudson is coming off of a 25th and 8th the last 2 weeks, while Huh has a mc in his only appearance in the last 2.5 months. I'll ride the hot hand this week.

J.J. Henry (-110) v David Hearn

-Now those of you who have followed along know I have typically backed Hearn... But during the new season he just isn't playing good golf right now. Couple that with a statistical sweep, and the fact that he has missed all 5 cuts here at Torrey, this is a no-brainer to me. The stats look like this: Greens In Regulation (5v112), Strokes Gained Putting (38v110), and Driving Distance (59v139). J.J. hasn't exactly torn up Torrey, but does have an 11th back in 2009, to go along with 5 made cuts. This is a clear play on stats and Hearn's Course Form. Looking for a quick win before the weekend starts!

So those are my 72h plays currently. We have 5 going at 2 units each. I have done some serious work on each matchup this week and am pretty sure these are the only 5 we are gonna roll with here. More than likely won't be adding any.

It looks like 5dimes is in the process of loading the Top 5 market now. So I hope to have some plays there soon!

-LinksPicks

14/15 PGA  
  Record Units
18h 4-3-1 0.600
72h 4-0 8.500
Outright 0-3 (1.500)
Top 5-20 1-3 1.875
Props    
Match Play    
Totals   +9.475

 

-2014 European PGA Tour -  -(5.2) units

The Archives

-13/14 PGA Tour -  +2.388 units

-12/13 PGA Tour - +1.44 units

-2013 Presidents Cup - -(4.65) units

Follow on Twitter!! @LinksPicks

bwizzle
Joined: 01/12/2011
Posts: 1981
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

what a FIVE PACK!!

FULLY get it on Westie! i do hate going against him, but if i can find it...I AM IN!

Woodland has been playing pretty well so far this season, but i love RF aka Flatbills, so again I like this play and will jump on if i can!?

Ish over SAB...SOLD!! Nuf said!

swafford over Huh...not sure on this one!? will HS handle the big guns around? Huh can get it going!? not saying it wont cash...but i think i may pass on this play...too many unknowns...

JJ is a green light! you have the proof right there! DH may find his game back, but hopefully it is not this week!? he is better than we have seen!

Great card so far! looking forward to tomorrow! will be back soon with my "options" as i see them! Keep up the good work! GDLK!

Bwizzle

bwizzle
Joined: 01/12/2011
Posts: 1981
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

two other tourney plays looking nice to me are..

Delaet over pulter

BDJ over guthrie---this play is -140!! BUT i think it is almost a (i dont want to say the word!!)

still hunting, but lets hear from the peeps bout these two?!?

only had HM, Ish, and FlatBills offered, so those are in!! Will be back!

GDLK!

Bwizzle

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