Hey Everyone!
Glad to be back cappin another exciting tournament. This looks to be my last of 2013 as I more than likely won't look into another one until the PGA Tour returns in January. So let's get right into it.
I'm going to be up front and honest with you - I have struggled during limited field events. As I was looking back and analyzing what went wrong, I came to the conclusion that I wasn't selective enough. And with only 18 participants this week, I have decided to only make To Win Bets on the very top of my board. It's a new strategy for me but I believe it's the right one. You have to learn to adapt in this business or simply put - you will fail. I trust my system completely, but absolutely believe a change to my strategy for these type of events will yield positive results. And I look forward to proving that this week.
Sherwood CC rewards accuracy. Tight dogleg fairways and punishing rough throughout means you have to find the short stuff. Tiger, Graeme (twice), and Furyk have won the last 4 editions - and those 3 are easily some of the best ball strikers in the world. So looking to the stats I am really focusing on players who hit fairways n greens first and foremost.
As an aside - I think these limited field events make it extremely hard to find value on the board. And with Tiger sitting there at less than 3-1, it becomes difficult in turning a decent profit when including him in your picks. For this week he did not make my boards Top 3, and therefore I am not firing a To Win Bet on him, yet. I am planning on using a wait n see approach. If he does start slow and potentially provides some value after the first few rounds I may make a mid-tourney play on him. But for now here are my Pre-Tourny Outright picks.
To Win Bets (all 1 unit each)
Steve Stricker - 19/1
-Simply put... Steve put together one of the best statistical seasons on Tour last year. In limited play he made the most of his time out there finishing Top 10 in 8 events out of 13 played. He finished runner up 4 times and to be honest I am completely shocked he was unable to win one. His Greens In Regulation (2nd), Strokes Gained Putting (2nd) and Driving Accuracy (3rd) leave him at the very top of my board. He is very familiar with Sherwood, and there are no concerns about his lack of recent play as clearly he knows how to prepare for tournaments away from competition. I def expect Strick to be in the mix on Sunday.
Zach Johnson - 22/1
-2nd on my board this week with fantastic ball striking stats - 8th in Driving Accuracy and 15th in Greens In Regulation. He is also known as one of the better putters on tour (30th ,8th ,11th, and 10th over the last 4 years in Strokes Gained Putting). He has 2 runner up finishes at Sherwood in 2007 and 2011. Throw in a 5th place finish in 2009, and clearly he likes playing here during the odd years. I don't expect any different in 2013.
Hunter Mahan - 27/1
-When someone asks who is one of the best ball strikers on tour, I always think of Hunter. The guy can flat out pure it, and when he is on there are not many on Tour that can match it. Since 2006 he has never finished worse than 26th in the Ball Striking stat, and most of the time he was Top 10. He also putted very well last year finishing 27th in Strokes Gained Putting. And since 2008 his Course Form at Sherwood reads 3, DNP, 5, 4, and 9. So clearly he likes this course. As one of the longer shots in the field (longest being 40/1), I def see some value on Hunter - who also rounds out the Top 3 on my stats board heading into this event.
So there are my Outright picks. Will be posting 72hers and maybe a couple first rounders soon.
Until then. Best of luck. And Get Money!
-LinksPicks