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AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO AM / JOBURG OPEN

Thread Starter AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO AM / JOBURG OPEN
madmoney
Joined: 08/29/2011
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onto JOHANNESBURG SA for the JORBURG OPEN. well for starters, im already knocking my head against the wall to start this week. i thought GEORGE COETZEE was going to play this week, and when i saw the opening #'s to win for the JOBURG on 5d, i didn't see his name near the top and after glancing around and not seeing his name, and this was late late in the night, so i assumed he was going to sit this week out and i went to bed. it wasn't till today i saw his # had opened @ 145/1 and currently its @ 7.2/1. so ya, missed some major value, and wont take looking at the opening #'s for granted again.

the JOBURG OPEN is held @ the ROYAL JOHANNESBURG AND KENSINGTON GC, which has 2 courses that will split this 210man field!!! the east course is the host course and will be played on for the final 2rds. general layout of both courses is fairly open and you can be a little loose with the driver if it means youre leaving yourself with short approaches, though there is some water on some holes and weird trees that if you are slightly unlucky on your drives it could cost you a key shot. east course is a couple hundred yards longer than the west, and it shows its teeth on the par3s and its longer than normal par4s. the par5s are where you can make up ground as there are 3 of them on the front 9 and if you don't make up ground there, then you will have your work cut out for you the rest of the round, til the 18th which is easily reachable in 2. if you don't shoot low on the west, its not too big of a deal, as you can still shoot low on the east, but it wont be easy. they're expecting some rain this week and there won't be any crazy wind expected. should be fairly easy for these guys to shoot low this week, though there are only 6 in the top100 OWGR playing this week. greens are a bit on the slow slide and will be slower because of the rain, rough isn't too thick, so again scoring will easier than normal.

CHARL SCHWARTZEL playing in his first tournament in 8weeks, his last 5 appearances, he's 1/1/2/3/5, and to top it off coming into this week, he's won this event twice, HOWEVER he missed the cut last year at this event. not a good price to buy him @ 3.3/1 currently. you can find a bunch of other guys trending well coming in that have a far better # and seems that players coming off a lengthy amount of time off away from tournament play its tough to get right back into the swing of things and just win. charl last year made this JOBURG stop his first tournament of the year, and again he missed the cut. so we'll see, but @ 3.3/1 its just not worth to buy him at this point.

so after blowing my chances with GEORGE COETZEE and CHARL's # being not appetizing enough to buy, who else can i go with? last years defending champ BRENDAN GRACE isn't a bad pick. believe there are a few high priced names that i have my eye that i will make a play at some point. this tournament is a little unfamiliar to me, as i didnt cap this last year, so will have to play this 1 cautiously to start.

have been also capping the PEBBLE BEACH PRO AM, and will have my card ready sometime late night wednesday. 

JOBURG OPEN

10.5/1 B. GRACE(.5u) -- to win L

80/1 F. AGUILAR(.2u) -- to win L

175/1 G. MAYBIN(.1u) -- to win L

225/1 P. UIHLEIN(.1u) -- to win L

5.45/1 R. SANTOS(.5u) -- top10 W

6/1 F. AGUILAR(.5u) -- top10 W

7.4/1 G. MAYBIN(.5u) -- top10 L

14/1 P. UIHLEIN(.5u) -- top10 L

grace(+163) / schwartzel(.5u) -- tour mu L

coetzee(+150) / schwartzel(.5u) -- tour mu L

uihlein(+105) / sjoholm(.5u) -- tour mu W

uihlein(EV) / sjoholm(.5u) -- 1st rd mu W

lockerbie(-140) / floren(.5u) -- tour mu W

aguilar(+225) / webster / kruger(.5u) -- 1st rd 3-ball W

fleetwood(-104) / walters / abery(.5u) -- 2rd rd 3-ball W

aguilar -.5(+105) / horne(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu W

coetzee(+120) / schwartzel(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L

walters(+145) / kamte / pieters(.5u) -- 4th rd 3-ball L

sterne(+125) / van zyl / fisher jr.(.5u) -- 4th rd 3-ball W

gonzalez(+175) / fisher / kingston(.5u) -- 4th rd 3-ball L

coetzee(+115) / schwartzel(.5u) -- 4th rd mu L

AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO AM

6.35/1 P. MICKELSON(1u) -- to win L

7.75/1 D. JOHNSON(1u) -- to win L

12/1 B. SNEDEKER(1u) -- to win $$WINNER$$

125/1 J. KOKRAK(.2u) -- to win L

130/1 J. TEATER(.2u) -- to win/thru1/ L

150/1 C. WI(.2u) -- to win/thru1/ L

38/1 R. H. LEE(.5u) -- to win/thru3/ L

3.6/1 J. WALKER(.5u) -- top10 W

3.6/1 T. CLARK(.5u) -- top10 L

3.65/1 J. DAY(.5u) -- top10 W

9/1 K. CHAPPELL(.5u) -- top10 L

11.5/1 J. KOKRAK(.5u) -- top10 L

snedeker(-140) / westwood(2u) -- tour mu W

marino(+140) / palmer(.5u) -- tour mu L

estes -2.5(-133) / gainey(.5u) -- tour mu W

estes -3.5(-128) / gainey(.5u) -- tour mu W

bello(+115) / kirk(.5u) -- tour mu reduced L

watney(EV) / furyk(.5u) -- tour mu reduced L

horschel -1.5(-120) / ogilvy(.5u) -- tour mu W

baddeley(+112) / clark(.5u) -- tour mu reduced W

wi(+115) / singh(.5u) -- tour mu W

teater(+117) / every(.5u) -- tour mu reduced L

walker(+110) / de jonge(.5u) -- tour mu reduced W

ridings(EV) / lee(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu L

walker(-105) / de jonge(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu P 

harrington(+110) / furyk(1u) -- 3rd rd mu L

lee(-125) / reed(1u) -- 4th rd mu L 

stadler -.5(+105) / jacobson(.5u) -- 4th rd mu W

stuard(EV) / tringale(.5u) -- 4th rd mu L

westwood(-120) / mahan(.5u) -- 4th rd mu L

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madmoney
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card complete to start for the JOBURG OPEN which tees off in an hr. still capping PEBBLE.

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madmoney
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card for PEBBLE BEACH is complete. weird weather this week with the worse of it coming in rd1. so may be getting worse #'s on these top3 players to win, but we'll see. think with everything considering, they will be tough to beat when the course is defenseless without any wind on the weekend which is the forecast right now.

*as always, weather forecast is wrong, not a drop of rain for rd1 and wind looks dead to start the day. think im done listening to these weather forecasts, and putting anymore stock in them than other it being just wet or dry.

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madmoney
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have some leans for rd2 @ JOBURG, which starts in less than an hr. will post here if i see anything that i want to commit on. 5dimes isn't really showcasing anyone in any of the mu's, 1 of my leans though im a bit biased, is santos to tear up that west course in rd2. solid -2 for him on the tougher course in rd1.

now onto the kid, uihlein shot out of the gate and was able to post an amazing -6. onto rd2, where he's now mu with #1223 in the OWGR and native SA MJ daffue who opened with -6 as well on the same course. # opened -130 in favor of daffue, and now its @ -145. i was sort of on fade alert for uhilein for rd2 playing the harder course, but this is weird and while i have 0 info on daffue, this looks like sort of an obvious spot to fade uhilein and im not sure sure if im just over thinking this, but this 1 was a little something i wanted to note. as far him to finish the rest of the week, im optimistic, but i somewhat undervalued how hard the east course is, its going to take a better than normal week for him to stay in the top10.

saw very little of schwartzel in rd1 coverage, saw the earlier coverage, but faded later in the day and spaced on him. charl opened -4 on tougher track, and had some pretty nice stats. 78% fairways hit on these courses, while it doesnt demand good driving on every hole, it helps on some of those par5s to set yourself in position, which it looked like he did birdieing 3/4 par5s. so looks like its business as usual for charl, see if he can keep up the pace on the easier course in rd2.

i saw most of the back9 for sterne, and he was solid again like he was the week before at the DDC. he was only -1 on the back9, but tee to green he missed just 1 green on the back and was able to get up and down. really set himself up for good chances too on the back. however he played the easier course in rd1. he did win this event in 09.

at this point, charl and sterne both ~ 3/1, and im very tempted, but will stay away as this week is far from over. dare i say, weather the rest of the week has 50% of rain, so the east course will play even longer for these players. so very tempted now to take the favs now, but will wait after rd2.

*gonna pass on rd2. have some leans, but just dont want to push it on a tournament that i still have little familiarity with. i really lean to schwartzel the rest of the week, the stats he put up for rd1 are really good on that east course. know i said that already, but really impressed by the basic vague stats that i only see. didnt see a single shot of him during telecast, though just watched some highlights and it was a bevy of different shot making including 1 amongst the trees. will definitely catch rd2 so ill see if i may want to make a play on him before the weekend.

**i lied, here's 1 play that i just couldn't talk myself out of.

fleetwood(-104) / walters / abery(.5u) -- 2rd rd 3-ball

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madmoney
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rd1 @ PEBBLE in the books, here are rd2 mu's.

ridings(EV) / lee(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu

walker(-105) / de jonge(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu

also will add these 2 to win...

130/1 J. TEATER(.2u) -- to win/thru1/

150/1 C. WI(.2u) -- to win/thru1/

not much to say after 1rd, aside from DJ which i wont get into, had something written up before hand and decided not to post it. looking into more, if i do post more it'll be close to tee off at 8 local time.

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madmoney
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not much for rd3 so far, still looking around. this mu starts much later.

aguilar -.5(+105) / horne(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu

rd3 starts now, will add anymore soon if i commit to anything else. will add PEBBLE later in the night.

*quickly, wanted to throw this 1 out there. i really like this play for saturday @ PEBBLE.

harrington(+110) / furyk(1u) -- 3rd rd mu

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madmoney
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djs123

I'm on that Harrington play also, lets cash it! Great work as usual.

$BOL$

saw that DJS, and have to admit, ive been looking at #'s for 3rd rd when they opened, played a .5u on that play to start, and saw the rd3 plays you posted and just had to get on that # for harrington for another .5u.

harrington im sure you saw got off to that good start but couldn't close at pebble. we'll see, they'll play the easier monterey peninsula course saturday, and see who can make more putts. greens are easier to hit on this course, but they are just weird greens once youre on them. dont put too much stock into this, but i think it matters a little between these 2, harrington so far 1.682putts/hole, furyk 1.870. furyk always tough to go against.

always great work week2week yourself DJS. mahan was close on my radar but i think he has a new putter to start this year and ive sort of been a little uneasy in that, but so far he's been better than normal, not great, but it will turn for him eventually, i hope not this weekStick out tongue. he does play the harder spyglass saturday, but he'll play it first thing in the morning, and thats about as good as it gets to play that course. so im real close to playing him @ 6.8/1 as backup. has only hit 92% GIR thru 2rds. 

*looking more into JOBURG. this fisher is not going to be so easily thrown off the lead. he'll be in the final group, he has game to keep him there at the top if his tee game goes awry. from what ive seen in telecast from rd2, his touch on these greens were spot on. see if it that continues for him the rest of the week. he closed 69/68 last year in the final 2 rds and finished t3.

here is another mu...

coetzee(+120) / schwartzel(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu *gonna push on my earlier tour mu between the 2. coetzee is just feeling it with the putter of late, schwartzel in his 1st tournament of the year may be in for a let down rd3? sure hope so, wasnt hitting the ball solid on the back9 in rd2 telecast from what i could tell. even a drive on the last he wasn't too pleased with but was in the fairway.

**going to pass on anymore plays for rd3 @ PEBBLE. tempted, think i may just stick with paddy. will make a new post if i change my mind.

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madmoney
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not good for rd3.

for rd4 @ JOBURG, they are using split tees and going off early in the morning, leaders will be starting at 8:30, not sure why they are doing this, from last years rd4 tee times they started 2hours later than what they are doing this sunday.

here are my final rd plays for JOBURG, they just started the final rd. these go off soon.

walters(+145) / kamte / pieters(.5u) -- 4th rd 3-ball

sterne(+125) / van zyl / fisher jr.(.5u) -- 4th rd 3-ball

gonzalez(+175) / fisher / kingston(.5u) -- 4th rd 3-ball

tempted to add more, will add on to this post if i do.

*wanted, to but gonna stick with what i have @ JOBURG, card complete. have some horses with very slim chances and am more interested in the top10's which the 3 i have left are o soo close again. for the final 3-ball, sterne had his taste of defeat in the final pairing last sunday in DUBAI, i think he will be tough to sway off the lead unless someone decides to bring their A game for sunday and starts out hot first and keeps playing that way to make him come after them. otherwise he knows his gameplan and will stick to it if the others falter. not sure what to think of the early tee times for sunday, but personally if i had the choice of it being later or in the morning on sunday with me in the final pairing, im taking the morning every time. so see how this effects the players.

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madmoney
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djs123

Ugly 3rd rd for me :( writing this week off. You got a good chance with Sneds tomorrow, good for you, props. I wanted too mention earlier in the week your comment on Coetzee. I watched the lines open with G. Coetzee at 7/8-1. 145-1 you saw must've been Charl Coetzee. same last name, there are many players on the euro tour with similar names, means nothing now just forgot to mention it earlier. I hope you cash with Sneds, I'm not adding anything more to my card, this week has been a nightmare.

$BOL$

unfortunately it was. im fairly close to being at the computer when they open lines and i just copy and paste them in excel, and looked back through it after seeing he actually had a tee time this week and saw the # with george coetzee. whatever, he is weird in 3rd rounds and thought maybe he can get off that, but like always history repeats itself and got to see some really bad golf from him. still managed to walk away with -2. i still like his chances for sunday to go low, and am really tempted to play him against charl again.

as far as your week, as you can see from my threads the last few weeks, your just going to have things just not go your way. tough game to play, and tough to bet on. though i think when you spend alot of time capping week2week and look at more things with betting golf, i believe more and more you can find ways to try and make some $ from it such as your new zealand womens plays to win. while you didnt make that much or maybe lost some, i found it to be a great investment and despite this little 15yr old winning, your insight and experience was almost spot on. just take what you can out of the week and move on and hope to hit some big winners like you did last year with BUBBA or with CURTIS. thats when all of this pays off imo. just sort of do damage control when you aren't confident with what you have for the week. again golf is a weird game to play and that goes for these pros, look at how phil and DJ are doing this week.

to finish up, actually gonna throw 1 more on the card for JOBURG. couldn't talk myself out of it.

coetzee(+115) / schwartzel(.5u) -- 4th rd mu

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madmoney
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JOBURG down to the last few holes for the final group, frustrated with how things are going so far, not too long to see where things stand.

for PEBBLE, mike hook raised a good point with richard lee, and im starting to look at some other guys who can provide atleast some value heading into the final rd.

gonna add this to the PEBBLE card...

38/1 RICHARD H. LEE(.5u) -- to win/thru3/

lee(-125) / reed(1u) -- 4th rd mu

stadler -.5(+105) / jacobson(.5u) -- 4th rd mu

stuard(EV) / tringale(.5u) -- 4th rd mu

*added...

westwood(-120) / mahan(.5u) -- 4th rd mu

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