This week the players head to the TPC Scottsdale in sunny Arizona for the annual Phoenix Open. A stadium course with ASU and other area schools near by it makes for the biggest(and drunkest) crowds the players will see all year. This course sets up as a 7200 yd par 71 known for it's aceable par 3 16th where Tiger made a 1 in '97 one the most memorable golf moments.This course will require solid driving erring to distance over accuracy as well as good GIR, proximity to hole and solid putting. Only 3 par 5's this week for the players to take advantage of, also being in the desert sand save % is worth looking at with 78 bunkers in play.
This week the most popular player will be Phil Mickelson a huge fan favorite, twice a winner here('96, '05) look for him to get back on track and have a good week. Other popular notables include B. Watson, J. Dufner, R. Fowler, B. Snedeker, N. Watney and many others. As you can see already we're in for a fun competitive event. Last year K. Stanley redeemed himself after a meltdown at the Farmers to pick up the win after S. Levin had a Sunday meltdown of his own giving up a six stroke lead he had after 54 holes.
As the records indicate we haven't been picking up the outright victories but have done okay H2H. My favorite part of golf betting is picking the outright winner and kissing the trophy as I love to do and did 11 times in about 35-40 events last season. I'll be looking to get the outright picks in order with a few of the favorites and a couple others. No doubt we'll keep H2H plays rolling along and probably have a couple props this week. Will there be a hole in one? YES!
Here are my picks to win the event:
**Jason Dufner +1450 **Jason will be the 2% play this week (MC)
~Jason is THE pick this week! He has been playing great with top tens over the last 2 events on the euro tour. He's also performed well here and his stats are lining up nicely. T8th here last year and finished solo 2nd in '11. Here are some key stats, GIR 7th, total driving 3rd, all around 3rd, proximity to hole 4th, birdie avg 5th, scoring avg 4th.
*Rickie Fowler +1800 (MC)
~Rickie had a great final 54 holes last week after an opening round 77 at the Farmers. He did disappoint us as he was just one stroke off of a couple payouts however he shot -13 thru his final three rounds and finished T6th. He is familar with this course as he finished solo second here in 2010.
*Bubba Watson +1900
~Bubba is back! Feeling better after a late withdraw last week due to the flu, I think Bubba will do well this week. B dub finished in a T4th at the TOC and T5th here last year. Some key stats, driving distance 1st, GIR 2nd, par 4 performance 1st, scoring avg 9th.
*Phil Mickelson +2500 $$$WINNER$$$
~Another lefty, the hometown hero will be back looking for his 3rd win at the TPC Scottsdale. Lefty has not gotten off to a great start this year but he's getting older and may have just needed to shake off the rust. I think this course will rejuvenate him. He knows the track well I mentioned his 2 wins here and he's also had a 2nd as well('08). Last year he finished T26th. His stats are nothing special but he knows how to putt and he knows how to win! 40 career wins and second only to Mr. Woods on the all time money list.
*Keegan Bradley +4000 E/W
~KB is offering some nice value on an each way play and he could certainly win this week with his friend and mentor Phil M. close by this week. Keegan finished T15th in his only appearance here last season. Keegan is a good ball striker and ranked 1st on tour in all around last season. Already has 3 career wins and should be in contention for his fourth this week.
2013 Golf Records:
PGA (18) EPGA (7) LPGA (4) Other (4)
18 Hole 57-52-14 +16.18 9-5-1 +5.4 1-2 -2.8
72 Hole 27-23-3 +20.24 5-3 +3.26 4-1 +4.9
Outright 13-133 +26.5 4-40 -7.3 4-17 +3.3 0-19 -19
Other 9-30 -7.8 2-4 -2.2
(Top 10, Props etc)
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Added some write ups to the outright card, still one or two more to come though I REALLY like Dufner & Bubba!! The rest are simply back up :) Will have the card finalized tomorrow with tourney plays, first rd etc.
The weather looks fine with mild/dry conditions expected throughout the week. I'm stoked for this event, really looking forward to it. I think we're going to kill it and finally get on a nice little roll with February being a great month for golf with the AT&T from Pebble Beach next week and the WGC Match play two weeks after that.
$BOL$
Hey Darrell any look ahead straight up winner picks for the masters ??
Patchman88 Hey Darrell any look ahead straight up winner picks for the masters ??
Hey man, good question. With all the rain delays already this year I have been looking a bit, though I haven't plugged anything in just yet. I think tiger will give it a decent run but little value as he's already 4/5-1 fav. I'll be looking at Graeme McDowell, Dufner, Oosty lost in a playoff to our boy Bubba last year he may have a chance. BVP will likely make the card due to shear value. He has a T8th in '11 and T17th last year, watch out for him. I'm looking forward to it!!
Tourney Match-Ups
**Hunter Mahan -110 over Bill Haas -L-
~Good match up here, both players could have a good week. Hunter won here in '10 and has been playing some good golf of late. He finished in a T15th last week and though he didn't play here last year I feel he has an edge over Haas. Some key stats, GIR HM 13th BH 89th, total driving HM 2nd BH 23rd, ball striking HM 4th BH 49th
**Jason Day -130 over Aaron Baddeley $W$
~Jason is the play here, much better overall form. Though he's only played this course twice(T-20th '08, cut '10). Both players are coming off of decent finishes at the Farmers where they both made the top ten. Day shot a 66 on the final round and will look to keep his momentum going this week. Both players are far from stellar in the stat department however Day has the edge in driving, approach and scoring.
**Mark Wilson -110 over Bud Cauley -L-
~Mark has won here before('11) and has finished in the top 20 in each of the last three years. Coming off of b2b cuts at the Sony & Humana I think Mark will look to get back on track at a course he's had success at. Cauley a rookie, may not be ready for the noisy crowds and the desert course does take some getting used to. Wilson's cuts this year the reason I can him being the 'dog' this week. Great price.
**2 units each
1-2 -2.4
First Round Match-Ups:
**Nick Watney -120 over Phil Mickelson -L- *good one to lose :)
~We do like lefty to have a good week but Nick is a great player and also has a decent edge in a 1st rd play. Last season Phil ranked 120th on tour in rd 1 scoring vs Nick 21st. Nick could very well contend this week and is worth a look on an outright play. I'm expecting a close match maybe 69-70 in favor of NW.
**Jason Dufner -110 over Brandt Snedeker -L-
~As I've said I really like Duffy to play well this week. He has great first rd scoring numbers and will want to get off to a fast start this week. Both players are solid as many of you know, however aside from putting I think JD has the edge in nearly every other category. JD was 2nd on tour last year in first rd scoring and 12th in '11. Sneds ranked 50th last year and 122nd in '11.
**Pat Perez -135 over Ricky Barnes $W$
~Pat is a solid overall player who should have a decent week, he has top 25's in each of his last three starts here. Coming off a T21st last week despite a final round 74 we'll look for him to get back on track this week. Last year PP ranked 8th on tour in rd 1 scoring vs Barnes' 117th. Also one of Bwizzle's favs :)
1-2 -2.6
I will have a few more pre tourney plays here also will add my euro picks in this thread. Seems to be less interest in golf this week with the 49er's bowl.. oops I meant Super 49er's Bowl.. oops again lol Also a big UFC card this weekend. Just another week for me grinding the links along with every thing else. I have a good feeling this week I think we'll pick up some loot and maybe kiss the trophy. $$$
Here's a couple plays for the Australian Ladies Masters..
*Karrie Webb +1200 $$$WINNER$$$
*Diana Luna +5000 E/W
*Nikki Cambell +5000 E/W
*1 unit each
~There is money all over the world in golf. Now that the season is underway I'll be looking for spots similar to this and adding when I can.
Omega Dubai Desert Classic Outright Picks: (tee off 7pm pst Wed)
*S. Garcia +600
*H. Stenson +1200
*T. Oleson +2200 E/W $W$ T3rd +2units
*R. C-Bello +2800 E/W
1-3 -1
good picks. aways a good tournament. bol.