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# A Very Profitable Situation

 Thread Starter A Very Profitable Situation
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 4979

Every week there is one time where as long as you have a basic understanding of math, you can make some easy money.  That bet is 5dimes live golf lines they put up near the end of the tournament.

I have no idea how to make futures lines before, after rounds, or in play during a tournament, there are way too many variables.  But when you get down to the end of the final round, the variables are far fewer, and pricing gets much easier.

Let's take last week for example.  Scott Piercy was in the clubhouse tied with Will McGirt.  McGirt has about a 25 footer for par to go to the playoff.  Robert Garrigus was one shot down, he also had a 15 footer for birdie to get to a playoff.  What are the chances at that moment that Piercy wins the tournament?

First, what are the chances that each player makes their putt?  I gave McGirt 20% and Garrigus 40%.

This means there is a 80% chance and a 60% chance that they will each MISS.  80 x .60= 48%.

There is a 48% chance they will both miss, meaning there is a 52% chance that one of them makes, and only a 8% chance that they both make.

For simplicity sake, let's assume they are both not going to make and just add some juice later to adjust for it.

If there's a 52% chance one of them makes, you then have to ask what the chances are of one of them winning in a playoff.  Garrigus is better than McGirt, and also better than Piercy, and has a better chance of making his putt.  I'd putt it at about 53% that whoever makes the putt, will win the playoff.

52 x .53 = 27.56% or +/-253

5dimes brought out Piercy -200 vs the field before the putts.

Since I've started betting these at 5D, I have never seen a bet move the opposite way of what I bet

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Joined: 12/16/2006
Posts: 362

Good work LC!

Joined: 10/24/2007
Posts: 7658

Probability notes based on 2010 Baseline

A player's chance of one-putting drops 20 percent when moving from 3 feet back to 5 feet.

Just under 8 feet: At the 7-foot, 10-inch mark, it's 50/50 whether players will one or two putt.
11 feet: Players have a 1 in 3 chance of one-putting from 11 feet (34 percent).
14 feet: Players have a 3 in 4 chance of two-putt or better from 14 feet (75 percent).
25 feet: Players have a 1 in 10 chance of one-putting from 25 feet (10 percent).
33 feet: The point at which a player is expected to two-putt. This is interesting because while there is an 88 percent chance of a two-putt from this distance, it is the point at which a player is equally likely to one-putt or three-putt (6 percent each way)
40 Feet: Players have a 1 in 10 chance of three-putting from 40 feet (10 percent).
73 Feet: Players have a 1 in 3 chance of three-putting from 73 feet (33 percent).

Joined: 11/04/2007
Posts: 17233

Great observation & explanation. I like this a lot, LC. Thanks for sharing.

"We'll See What Happens"

Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 4979

razorback fan

Probability notes based on 2010 Baseline

A player's chance of one-putting drops 20 percent when moving from 3 feet back to 5 feet.

Just under 8 feet: At the 7-foot, 10-inch mark, it's 50/50 whether players will one or two putt.
11 feet: Players have a 1 in 3 chance of one-putting from 11 feet (34 percent).
14 feet: Players have a 3 in 4 chance of two-putt or better from 14 feet (75 percent).
25 feet: Players have a 1 in 10 chance of one-putting from 25 feet (10 percent).
33 feet: The point at which a player is expected to two-putt. This is interesting because while there is an 88 percent chance of a two-putt from this distance, it is the point at which a player is equally likely to one-putt or three-putt (6 percent each way)
40 Feet: Players have a 1 in 10 chance of three-putting from 40 feet (10 percent).
73 Feet: Players have a 1 in 3 chance of three-putting from 73 feet (33 percent).

This is good info, thanks for sharing.  Looks like I was giving them too much credit in my estimates of how often they would make.  When you are making estimates on the fly like this, it's much better to be conservative

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 4979

Straguzzi

Great observation & explanation. I like this a lot, LC. Thanks for sharing.

Not a problem, hope it works out this weekend.

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Joined: 10/24/2007
Posts: 7658

no prob Lloyd, got info off pga stat database file.   but still alot of variables, (i.e. straight uphill 15 ft putt and such, or a moonraker....)     you da' man, GL.

Joined: 08/29/2011
Posts: 2556

in the example you used from last week, I would say it was even less for them to make it as when I watched the golf the whole day, i dont think i saw anyone make a putt from below the hole that they were able to hit it hard enough to get there, even so, still solid job explaining the edge you can gain when its obvious sometimes you are getting the better end of a line.

definitely will have to tinker around with my math and think of this for the future because this will come up again and again.

thanks for the post lloyd

Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 4979

You are probably right.  I was just trying to be conservative

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Joined: 08/29/2011
Posts: 2556

Lloyd Christmas

You are probably right.  I was just trying to be conservative

even so, with those #'s still proves your point.

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