This week we go to Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Maryland(D.C area) for the AT&T National. This is where Rory McIlroy went on to post -16 and blow away the field at last years US Open. The course sets up as a 7574yd par 71. We will see tougher scoring this time around I believe as the weather is going to be dry, hot and windy unlike last year when conditions were damper allowing for softer greens and easier scoring. Tiger is of course the big favorite this week, currently 5/6-1. He won here in '09 the last time Congressional hosted the AT&T..
Tiger and Hunter Mahan the only two players in the top ten WGR. Nick Watney will return to defend the title joined by 2012 tourney winners such as Dustin Johnson, Kyle Stanley, John Huh and Johnson Wagner among others. At $6.5 Million this will be one of the largest non major tourney purses of the year so we can expect players to play well looking for a bigger payday.
The last three weeks outright picks have looked like this St. Jude - T-3rd, US Open - T-2nd, Travelers - T-2nd.. Close but no cigar. This week I'm determind to pick up the win even though I'm going with a scaled down card. $BOL$
Here are my picks to win the event:
*D. Johnson 17-1
*A. Scott 23-1 (3rd)
*B.V. Pelt 36-1(5D) (2nd)
*R. Palmer 36.5-1 (T-15th)
*J. Day 42-1 (T-8th)
Wild Card:
*R. Garrigus 60-1(5D) (T-4th)
Long Shot:
*K. Chappell 110-1(bet365)
**All odds from pinny unless otherwise stated
2013 Golf Records:
PGA (18) EPGA (7) LPGA (4) Other (4)
18 Hole 57-52-14 +16.18 9-5-1 +5.4 1-2 -2.8
72 Hole 27-23-3 +20.24 5-3 +3.26 4-1 +4.9
Outright 13-133 +26.5 4-40 -7.3 4-17 +3.3 0-19 -19
Other 9-30 -7.8 2-4 -2.2
(Top 10, Props etc)
follow me on twitter @djs123sports
Nice write up! I do think DJ has been "tuning" it up and it is jsut a matter of time before he stomps a field. at 17-1 maybe a bit of good value wiht Tiger on the board also. No Tiger that probably drops to 12 or 14-1? My "guy" does not have lines up yet for tourney or R1. odds to win are scattered. i will throw a few at you when they are up. Keep plugging! I feel like this is your week!! GD LK!!
Bwizzle
No Tiger on the card.. Basically same scenario as Rory in the Euro. Tiger will do okay I think, he'll make the cut and everything, just don't think he's going to win here. At 5/6-1 getting little value, I may look into him for top 20 play or MAYBE top ten.. $BOL$
Yo Bwiz, DJ has hardly missed a step since returning from injury.. He finished in a tie for 23rd here at Congressional last year at the US Open after posting an opening round 75.. He ranks 14th in all around which is good considering he doesn't lead in any of the stats I usually look for. His scoring is very good overall, he's long(9th on tour in distance) and he scambles well which is why he's had some success this year despite a 10 week layoff. Honestly it was between him and Hunter for my fav spot and I just feel we're getting a bit better value here at 16/17-1 vs 12~-1 for Hunter.. Who you like to win it this week Bwiz?
I think i am going to roll with a "chalky" play and a "reach" play to win this week. I have CH3 at 40-1, and JB Holmes (who you know i like) also at 40-1. for the "chalky" Either Mahan, or Furyk? I'll sleep on it tonight and get one in Thursday early am for each. but i am pretty sure it will be one of each. I will probably take all tourney H2H on DJ and try and pick up some nice value there. Again 5 or maybe 7 tourney h2h and then the am and pm round by round h2h. I would like to think i can get back to the HIGH 70% mark this week? or at least mid? This jsut in...DJ +140 over Tiger. i will put this in NOW as i think it will go DOWN. What do you think on that play? I will have more in the am. GD LK!
Bwiz, first of all your "guy" is robbing you on your outright odds.. All of my books have JB and CH3 @ 70+-1, 5dimes has JB at 90-1. Anyway I like Howell far better and may add him to my card. He was a late scratch for me, just seems to get himself in tough spots.. He putts pretty decent which will help him this week but his final round scoring avg is a little scary(91st). If I'd gone with my usual 9/10 plays he would've made it.. Dusty over Tiger is a fairly bold play, I like it, I expect both to play well this week.( DJ+150 on 5dimes, you may want to just sign up with them..) Tiger hard to get a read onat times, he says he hasn't been practicing since the open etc.. But who knows, he could come out and win somehow or play better then some expect. I like the play though definately. $BOL$
on it djs. thanks for the plays.
Rule #1. Bankroll Management!
Rule #2. Discipline!
Your welcome $hack.. Tourney match ups posted shortly.
Tourney Match-Ups:
*J. Day -108(pinn) over R. Moore $$WINNER$$
*C. Kirk -120(5D) over D.A. Points -loser-
*R. Sabbatini -110(5D) over J.B. Holmes $$WINNER$$
*M. Laird -115(5D) over M. Leishman $$WINNER$$
*K. Chappell -110 over G. Chalmers -loser-
**All H2H plays to win 2 units
3-2 +1.4 units
believe me I know the lines are tweaked! sometimes they are in my favor though as I will ususally pick about 1 of 3 plays as a dog. If you think golf is bad, my base ball plays are sometimes so off i cant play them at all! that is the price to pay for a line of credit i guess? For the Masters i seriously thought about putting what i had as winnings on line, but all the bad articles and even MANY posts on PG about trying to get money out of certain ones, really discouraged me. I could see hitting a tourney to win play to even pay about 1k then you dont get the cash?! What do you do? Call the cops? it would just piss me off beyond beliefe. So i guess i get a little bit of a sour line at times, but know at the end of each week....CA$H in pocket (IF I WIN!?). Anyways, i like the J. Day play but i am going to loook further into Points and Holmes. I dont like to go against either one of those guys, so maybe i will pass on them. I will let you know. BOUNCE BACK WEEK!!!! Time to kiss the trophy!! GO Get em! GD LK! i will toss a few at you later today!
ps
locked in CH3 as my "reach" for the week!