Allright fellas, with so much going on this weekend in sports (NBA-MLB-NHL-UFC-BOX-NASCAR)..I thought I would go ahead and get the KENTUCKY DERBY out of the way today..
Bottom line, I am NOT a horse bettor and have only taken it seriously when someone I know does well or moves money passes along a play. With that said, I have bet every Triple Crown Race since I was a kid and admit that it's mostly for entertainment and what I consider my "gambling"..
Even so, what I do for these races is gather as much info (picks) as possible from guys out here in Vegas and back in Philly that know a lot more than I do..then I add a little of my own handicapping to the mix, and come up with some bets to make..
This approach has produced some success over the years and 2 derby's ago I remember making a nice score..
Finally, I highly recommend you pay close attention to what someone like Marco D'Angelo has to offer because he definitely knows his stuff being a horse owner for so many years and spending a lot more time at the track than most. Couple that with an efficient ability to understand what to look for, and there's little doubt that I'll be piggy-backing what he passes along on Saturday..
Hopefully he's on the same page as the guys I spoke to, otherwise I'll have to come out of pocket a lot more..lol
Keep in mind that I do not know the most efficient ways to bet, so I'll pass along what I'm doing and hopefully you can use it and come up with something even better that produces some profit..Bottom line, I just wanted to make sure that I disclose the fact that by no means am I an expert so proceed with caution..
Best of Luck and Enjoy the Race, VR..."And Away They Go" !!
KENTUCKY DERBY BETS :
1.) #15...to WIN / PLACE
2.) #15 - #5 - #6...EXACTA BOX (may also add picks below and go for a score)
3.) #15 - #5 - #6 (on top)...w/ #15 - #5 - #6 - #19 - #10 - #3...TRIFECTA and SUPERFECTA
PLEASE...feel free to share any ideas on how I can place these bets when I hit the sportsbook tonight that may be more efficient or cheaper...Thanks.
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lol.. i dont understand at all.
I will put money where you and marco suggest.. :D
If I make any money out of this derby (my 1st horse racing bet), I promise that next buffet at Wynn/Bellagio is on me for you and marco :D
You know I come to vegas often..
twitter id: deal_doc81
Damn Doc...you should have told Marco about that buffet deal because he would have started working on his Derby card last May !!
VR..Value your opinion on all sports so heres mine on my best one....There is one thing you should know about Gemologist's jockey Castellano...today during the races he got knocked off his horse during a race and may have had a concussion. They did not release the reports and said he was fine. However, he was riding the Oaks favorite Grace Hall and did not pilot her to a victory like many thought he should have. Could it have been his head injury? The track doctors said nothing seemed apparent when examining him, but they cant do a real test unless at a hospital (CAT Scan) so they went by his word (obviously he wanted to ride the Oaks favorite in the next race).
I have nothing against the horse....he is in my top 8. ( I plan on boxing a 6 or 8 horse superfecta and doing a 6 horse trifecta, and finally doing a pick 3 including 6 or 8 horses for the Derby itself and 2 horses for the 1st 2 legs.
Remember that the Derby winner will pay huge price and it will help boost the pick 3,4, etc's pool payouts. Very juicy.... so you should do a pick 3 at the very least.
I dont like Union Rags simply because I have been following Leparoux for a while, me being from Lexington/Louisville, I went to Keeneland almost daily during Spring meet and Leparoux killed it there. Almost every race he won could be summed as he stalked then pounced to take the lead. That is not the type of horse Union Rags is...he needs the front to win. Leparoux will have to make a huge adjustment that I think will be hard to do with the horses starting next to him like the fast Bode.
About Dulla.. he has to overcome a shorter recovery time than most (3 weeks) other horses in this race. The bigger issue is that his wins are on turf and synthetic tracks and he's never won on a dirt track. Disadvantage with the quality in this race.
My 6.(no order)..with no clue on 123 yet... 6-Bode,8-creative, 10-Daddy nose, 13-Went day, 14-Hansen, 15-Gem, 16, Elpadrino, 19-Illhaveanother
VR- A good horse is dangerous in the hands of any trainer. A talented horse makes a good trainer,good trainers don't make good horses. So while I think its important to be a dedicated experienced trainer, you still need the talented horse, thats capable of going that long distance at the age of three. I know Marco is a very saavy horse guy, and I'd sure respect his opinion. But as a guy who owned and trained horses before for many of my younger years as a hobby, I know perhaps a tad more than the average fan. Sometimes I have too much info. This could be the toughest Derby I've seen in 30 years, but I do know a few of the owners and trainers in this year's Derby, and they all think they have a legitimate shot. That being the case, I did a little extra work and instead of simply reading the racing form, (which only tells you what a horse did, not what he is going to do), I was most impressed with DADDY NOSE BEST, DULLAHAN and I'LL HAVE ANOTHER. The guys that train these horses would NEVER be there today if they did not feel they had a excellent chance of winning. Hall of Fame Trainer Steve Asmussen who trains DADDY NOSE BEST, really convinced me two weeks ago, why he thought after all these years this just might be his time. I agree. I'm wagering to win on Daddy Nose Best and hope I get 15-1. The other two I give a serious shot to is DULLAHAN and I'LL HAVE ANOTHER. I do not usually make "gimmick" wagers, but I will box these three horses in a exaca box. The larger portion of my investment will be on DADDY NOSE BEST to win! Whatever you decide to do, BOL my friend! And thank you for all you do for making Pregame, the great place that it is! "DO DAMAGE"
CRISP, HARRY...DAMN...now that's what I'm talking about.
I wish I would have spoken to you guys before and added your knowledge/info to the mix before coming up with any conclusion as far as my own wagers..
This is a perfect example of why a community like this is so important...It affords bettors to gain insight from "specialists/experts" for almost anything...From a certain college team or conference, to a particular sport..having access to so many people allows for info that was unheard of back in the day...Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts fellas, I'm definitely going to take BOTH of your advice and toss in some more tickets..I always enjoy betting Triple Crown Races and understand that for myself, a novice at best..it's entertainment more than anything else, but at least with info from guys who take it much more seriously and profit from the game..my chances defintely improve..I really appreciate it. VR
Almost forgot, received a text from a friend back in Philly that I definitely consider a horse guy even though he's notorious for "coming across" info on horse races that aren't on the up and up..
Anyway, he told me that a race like this isn't where most pros look to make their money but said to pay some attention to I'LL HAVE ANOTHER...He claims that the post-position is the only reason he's not taking a major position, otherwise it would be the horse he backed today..Anyone know anything about this horse ??
VR- I'LL HAVE ANOTHER is quite a story. His trainer Doug Peterson is a master when it comes to claiming horses then improving them. He is based in California, and for him to put I'LL HAVE ANOTHER in The Kentucky Derby was shocking. He is a realist and is very honest with the owners of the horses he trains for them. This horse you bring up, was working "lights out" and deserved a shot in some real tough races with large pots, but running a horse over his head can be dangerous as it can "break a hore's heart and take his confidence away. But this horse just kept winning, going up the latter slowly and then Doug had to make a tough call. Should he run this inexpensive horse in The Santa Anita Derby? Well, all factors said yes, and of course the owners wanted to run. Doug said ok, but none of the top riders in California anted to ride the horse, as they feared embarrassment. This one 24 year old talented kid named Mario Gutierrez got the mount. The rest is history. He won the Santa Anita Derby, and got the earnings to enter The Kentucky Derby. Regarding the post position, its not great thats for sure, but he will not be on the lead anyway. So if this young jock does not panic, and rides like he has been, this horse can win. And if he does, I won't be surprised. Sounds like you just found a horse to put a little wager on! BOL! "DO DAMAGE"
P.S. Wish you would have checked out my post of Derby Day Selections in "Everything Else" as I had the first two winners, bet them straight and hit a $100.00 Daily Double! The double paid $25 and change! BOL!
Agree with you Ace, GEMOLOGIST is the best horse in the race.
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Best of luck with your big day my friend!