UFC 145 with Vegas Runner and Mike Hook

Mike Hook

UFC PLAYS from MIKE HOOK:

MICHAEL MCDONALD +100 Miguel Torres (3 UNITS)

TRAVIS BROWNE -249 Chad Griggs (2 UNITS)

ANTHONY NJOKUANI -200 John Makdessi (2 UNITS)

EFRAIN ESCUDERO +170 Mac Danzig (2 UNITS)

MATT BROWN +240 Stephen Thompson (2 UNITS)

RASHAD EVANS +375 Jon Jones (1 UNIT)

Now I've got something to really work with in trying to finalize my card for UFC 145...I plan on doing some more work tonight and checking out the weigh-ins via Youtube or UFC.com because I was unable to do so "live"...But knowing the plays Mike's already confirmed sure do make my life a lot easier because it would take a LOT to go the other way. Instead, if I disagree on any I will almost definitely PASS...

Reason : Don't know anyone that's gotten RICH holding tickets opposite of Mr. Hook regardless the sport and by no means am I trying to get on his good side...lol. But knowing mma is one that he's really passionate about and follows religiously, I admit I weigh his opinions even more heavily. In fact, I'm blindly betting the Bellator picks he sent me for tonight and I swear that I did NOT even take a single look at the match-ups...now that's confidence.

vegas-runner

Now I've got something to really work with in trying to finalize my card for UFC 145...I plan on doing some more work tonight and checking out the weigh-ins via Youtube or UFC.com because I was unable to do so "live"...But knowing the plays Mike's already confirmed sure do make my life a lot easier because it would take a LOT to go the other way. Instead, if I disagree on any I will almost definitely PASS...

I know we talked about this yesterday VR and I still think that Jones beats Evans. There are too many intangibles in this fight. Jones is close to 6'4 AND he has a reach of 84". That is HUGE against Evans who is only 5'11 (who cares about his reach) PLUS Jones knows how to fight tall. The biggest factors here between these guys is that Jones IS faster and Jones has better cardio. Look for Evans to be defensive in this fight and Jones will use his speed to get in and out with strikes. Evans has a history of gassing out in the later rounds. I will not be surprised if Jones' game plan is to take Evans to the late rounds and take him out. 

IF Evans does beat him then I'll give the man his due. You can be damn sure that Jones wants this fight just as bad as Evans does.

HOWEVER, as far as betting goes, I certainly cannot bet that much chalk on Jones because of how high it is. I agree with your thoughts yesterday in that the line was too high for this fight and Evans is still a very live dog.

Personally, I'm passing on this whole card.

Looks like a little money flowed in on Evans after the weigh in -- hopefully Bones gets to -400 before parlay time tomorrow.

This is a tough card. Here is what I ended up with

McDonald (Ev) -- 3u, loved this pick and Hook confirmed

Rothwell (+230) -- 2u, Rothwell looked great, a lean 250 and he will have about 30lbs on an overrated Schaub, Rothwell takes the decision

Matt Brown (+210) -- 2u, I'm not a huge Matt Brown fan, but at almost 2.5 to 1, I see value

Leaving the rest alone.

I'm one of those who doesn't think Rashad will win but COULD win, and I took him at +330 (late jump). This is fighting. Takes one shot. Although Jones did state, in his breakdown of Rampage, that he knew he was inferior inside a short distance, so he made sure to use a lot of leg kicks and stay out of Rampage's hit zone. I suspect the same thing will happen tonight (as it is now Saturday). Rashad is a better wrestler than Rampage, so it WILL be a little different. But since Jones is a smarter fighter and will most likely use a lot of kicks and stay outside, I'd look to options like 'Round 3 WILL Start' and wagers such as that instead. If you don't want to lay -400 (and I simply will never do that), then I'd suggest something like 'Jones Wins by Decision' for a cheaper price, as I don't see a knockout coming in this fight. ALSO, Greg Jackson is now pretty much notorious for teaching his fighters to run like bitches and / or lay on top of the opponent and dry hump them for 3 rounds.

Allright...here is what I came up with and will try to put something together in the form of Premium Plays :

EVANS, TORRES, BOCEK, T. BROWNE, M. BROWN, & NJOKUANI...

Obviously Evans and M. Brown are value plays based on what I believe to be inflated lines..and when betting dogs this big you have to go in understanding that you will NOT cash many...But fortunately to turn a profit, you don't need to.

I did toss in a 4 Tm ALL Dog Parlay on : Alessio, Rothwell, M. Brown, & Evans...just because I was at a Cantor book last night and decided to toss a couple of dogs onto a ticket for fun.

If Mike Hook wasn't on M. McDonald,  I would have most likely used TORRES as a straight bet but since I respect his work so much, I just added him to a parlay.

Finally, NJOKUANI may be the wager that demands my "straight" action even at -200...Because I thought that line should have been closer to double that. And both Dogs, Evans & Brown may see a small position on straights also because the value seems to be too good to pass up.

Now let's hope they give us a good fight and Jones don't go through Evans in the 1st or 2nd round because I'd love to see how Jones reacts to adversity. It will definitely allow us to have a much better grip on whether he truly deserves all the chalk attatched each fight. Because so far, although he's walked through the competition, these lines have been based more on "perception" of invincibility than actual data.

Best of Luck and Enjoy the Fights...IT'S TIME !!

agree completely Ace on NJOKUANI. I had heard so many strong whispers on Makdessi being hurt in this particular camp. You know the nutritionists for the UFC, and i don't, but the look on Makdessi when he missed weight was no surprise at all. Losing 20% of your purse IS a big deal when fighting is what pays your bills. I can't say shame on him, but he had no interest in trying to lose the extra weight.

All this aside, i thought NJOKUANI should have been a bigger opening favorite as well. I guess it's just because of the TRI STAR camp.

A fight is still a fight, but i do feel that this line should be at minimum -325. Good luck bro.

Sorry we disagree on McDonald and Torres. That's what makes this so great though, not always agreeing. It also shows that while we share info, that for this thread we don't share our actual picks until we put them up.

That way when there is agreement, along with the super sharp hard core MMA guys here at pregame, we know what to hammer and what to tread lightly with.

Best of luck to everyone tonight. It is indeed, TIME!

Thanks for all of the info and insight Mike...Since McDonald is your 3*, I went ahead and PASSED on Torres for Premium Plays..In fact, I only have him on 1 parlay that I tossed in last night and there's so many others on it, I consider it a LONG-SHOT at best so I will cheer in McDonald knowing you and so many others here on Pregame are on him tonight..

I agree on NJOKUANI and I heard the exact same things and that's the main reason for the weigh-in problems so I'm not going to let the fact he's the chalk stop me from stepping up and firing..

I also had to toss 1 unit on Rashad..I know his chances are very slim but I just can't get past that price...With that said, I'm starting to think oddsmakers did that to keep bettors off Jones this time and are willing to take the risk on Rashad so it don't  look too good for Suga but I'm on it.

GL tonight.

Great thread! Thanks for sharing your thoughts, absolutely top shelf info here BOL to all.  

GL to all. I am locked in on Evans at +385 $200 to win $770

I'm going to eat some serious crow in this thread if Evans pulls the upset. I added Browne and Njok based on VR and MH.

I also added OVER 2.5 rounds for Evans/Jones -- I really like that bet at +130. In any emotional fight, both guys spend time feeling the other out to not get caught. I still think Jones by dec is very likely.

Every bet parlayed with JONES --

McDonald -- 3u

Rothwell --2u

Brown --  2u

Browne -- 2u

Njok --  2u

Over 2.5 rds Jones/Evans -- 3u

Good luck all!!!