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Griff's NASCAR--K.Bush,Edwards,Kennseth--Let's get em Ricky Bobby!!!!Daytona 500

Thread Starter Griff's NASCAR--K.Bush,Edwards,Kennseth--Let's get em Ricky Bobby!!!!Daytona 500
Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 23203
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Daytona 500 Starting Lineup

  1. Carl Edwards
  2. Greg Biffle
  3. Tony Stewart
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  6. Regan Smith
  7. Marcos Ambrose
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Jeff Burton
  10. Elliott Sadler
  11. Michael McDowell
  12. Joey Logano
  13. Kevin Harvick
  14. Kyle Busch
  15. AJ Allmendinger
  16. Jeff Gordon
  17. Robby Gordon
  18. Ryan Newman
  19. Jamie McMurray
  20. Kasey Kahne
  21. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  22. Mark Martin
  23. Brad Keselowski
  24. Dave Blaney
  25. David Ragan
  26. Martin Treux Jr.
  27. Aric Almirola
  28. Kurt Busch
  29. Danica Patrick
  30. Clint Bowyer
  31. Denny Hamlin
  32. Bobby Labonte
  33. David Gilliland
  34. Joe Nemechek
  35. Juan Pablo Montoya
  36. Casey Mears
  37. Paul Menard
  38. David Reutimann
  39. Landon Cassill
  40. Trevor Bayne
  41. Tony Raines
  42. David Stremme
  43. Terry Labonte

DAYTONA NOTES:

The 2012 edition will be the 54th running of the Daytona 500.
•Although the first Daytona 500 was held in 1959, it has been the season-opener only since 1982.
•518 drivers have competed in at least one Daytona 500; 306 in more than one.
•35 drivers have won a Daytona 500.
•Youngest Daytona 500 winner: Trevor Bayne (02/20/2011 - 20 years, 0 months, 1 days)
•Oldest Daytona 500 winner: Bobby Allison (02/14/1988 - 50 years, 2 months, 11 days)
•Eight drivers have won more than one Daytona 500, led by Richard Petty with seven victories.
•The eight drivers who have won the Daytona 500 more than once: Richard Petty (seven), Cale Yarborough (four), Bobby Allison (three), Dale Jarrett (three), Jeff Gordon (three), Bill Elliott (two), Sterling Marlin (two) and Michael Waltrip (two).
•Dale Earnhardt leads the series in runner-up finishes in the Daytona 500 with five; Kurt Busch leads all active drivers in Daytona 500 second-place finishes with three.
•Dale Earnhardt finished in the top 10 in 16 of his 23 Daytona 500s.
•Dale Earnhardt and Richard Petty each had 16 top 10s in the Daytona 500, more than any other driver.
•Dale Earnhardt had 12 top fives in the Daytona 500, more than any other driver.
•Only 13 drivers have an average finish of 10th or better in the Daytona 500, six of those competed in the Daytona 500 only once.
•Clint Bowyer has a 12.2 average finish in six appearances, the best of the active drivers who have competed in more than one Daytona 500.
•Lee Petty, who won the inaugural Daytona 500, and Trevor Bayne, 2011 Daytona 500 champion, are the only two drivers to win the Daytona 500 in their first appearance.
•28 of the 35 drivers who have won, participated in at least two Daytona 500s before visiting Victory Lane.
•Dale Earnhardt competed 19 times before winning his only Daytona 500 (1998), the longest span of any of the 35 race winners.
•Six drivers made 10 or more attempts before their first Daytona 500 victory: Dale Earnhardt (19), Buddy Baker (18), Darrell Waltrip (16), Bobby Allison (14), Michael Waltrip (14) and Sterling Marlin 12).
•The most Daytona 500s all-time without a victory was Dave Marcis (33 races).
•Mark Martin (27) leads active drivers without a victory.
•Six drivers posted their career-first victory with a win in the Daytona 500: Tiny Lund (1963), Mario Andretti (1967), Pete Hamilton (1970), Derrike Cope (1990), Sterling Marlin (1994), Michael Waltrip (2001) and Trevor Bayne (2011).
•Three other drivers posted their career-first victory in (point-paying) qualifying races: Johnny Rutherford (1963), Bobby Isaac (1964) and Earl Balmer (1966).
•A driver has won back-to-back Daytona 500s three times. Richard Petty (1973-74), Cale Yarborough (1983-84) and Sterling Marlin (1994-95)
• Kevin Harvick’s 0.020-second margin of victory over Mark Martin in the 2007 Daytona 500 is the 12th-closest overall since the advent of electronic timing in 1993, and the closest in a Daytona 500.
•26 of the 53 Daytona 500s have been won from a top-five starting position.
•Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500 from the 39th starting position in 2009, the deepest a race winner has started.
•Nine have been won from the pole. The last to do so was Dale Jarrett in 2000.
•16 Daytona 500s have been won from the front row.


Jeff Gordon has six victories at Daytona, more than any other active driver.
•The Wood Brothers have won 15 races at Daytona, more than any other car owner.
•17 full-length races at Daytona have been won from the pole; the last to do it was Kevin Harvick in last year’s Coke Zero 400.
•A driver has swept both races at Daytona only four times, most recently by Bobby Allison in 1982.

 

Top 14 at Daytona (since Feb 2010)
DriverAvg FinRacesWinsTop 10RatingLaps Led
Reed Sorenson 8.00 1 0 1 84.0 0.00%
David Gilliland 9.50 2 0 1 67.1 0.00%
Paul Menard 12.00 4 0 2 81.1 2.13%
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12.25 4 0 2 86.8 1.86%
Kurt Busch 12.25 4 0 2 104.8 9.57%
Juan Pablo Montoya 13.00 4 0 3 89.2 2.66%
Steve Park 13.00 1 0 0 58.6 0.60%
Carl Edwards 13.50 4 0 3 83.7 0.13%
Kevin Harvick 14.25 4 1 3 98.6 11.97%
Scott Speed 14.50 2 0 1 69.7 3.21%
Matt Kenseth 14.75 4 0 2 71.1 1.86%
Kasey Kahne 15.25 4 0 2 90.7 3.06%
Jeff Gordon 15.75 4 0 2 83.1 2.26%
Kyle Busch 16.75 4 0 2 93.1 5.32%

 

Restrictor Plate Tracks
Driver Avg Fin Wins Rating
Reed Sorenson 8.0 0 84.0
Clint Bowyer 10.6 2 101.4
Kevin Harvick 12.1 2 92.3
Carl Edwards 12.4 0 74.6
Paul Menard 13.8 0 82.2
Juan Pablo Montoya 13.9 0 83.8
David Reutimann 14.5 0 81.1
Denny Hamlin 14.9 0 76.6
Jeff Gordon 15.4 0 77.3
Mark Martin 15.9 0 71.3
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 16.3 0 86.0
David Gilliland 16.6 0 63.7

 

Team Averages at Daytona
Driver Avg FinRacesWinsTop 5Top 10
Team Red Bull 15.50 8 0 1 3
Richard Childress Racing 15.79 14 1 3 7
Roush Fenway Racing 16.13 16 1 4 7
Earnhardt Ganassi Racing 16.50 8 1 1 4
Phoenix Racing 18.00 3 0 0 0
Joe Gibbs Racing 18.08 12 0 2 3
Hendrick Motorsports 19.25 16 0 3 5
Rusty Wallace Racing 20.00 1 0 0 0
Richard Petty Motorsports 21.00 12 0 1 2
FAS Lane Racing 21.50 2 0 0 0
Penske Racing 21.70 10 0 1 2
Stewart-Haas Racing 22.00 8 0 0 0

 

Daytona 500 Driver Chassis Selections

1-Jamie McMurray: Crew Chief Kevin "Bono" Manion and the #1 Bass Pro Shops/Tracker Boats team will be bringing a brand new chassis, Chassis #1204, to Daytona International Speedway this weekend.

#2-Brad Keselowski: and the #2 Miller Lite Dodge Charger team will race chassis PRS-643 during Sunday's 54th running of the Daytona 500. This is a new chassis to the #2 fleet. Continuing one of the most-popular features of the "Blue Deuce" from 2011, the featured tag line on the rear bumper this weekend in Daytona will be "Driven to Greatness."

#6-Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: is driving primary chassis RK-689 which last ran at Daytona in July and won the race with David Ragan driving. The backup chassis will be RK-720.

#9-Marcos Ambrose: The #9 RPM team has prepared chassis No. 795 for the Daytona 500. This Stanley Ford Fusion is brand new this season and was tested in Daytona in January.

#10-Danica Patrick will driver Chassis No. 333, a brand new chassis that will make its debut during Daytona Speedweeks in preparation for the 54th Daytona 500 on Feb. 26.

#16-Greg Biffle: is racing primary chassis RK-794 which is a brand new chassis, the backup chassis is RK-689, which last raced at Daytona in July and finished 18th.

#17-Matt Kenseth: will run primary chassis RK-741 which last run at Texas. This weekend at Daytona , Kenseth will pilot the #17 Best Buy Ford Fusion.

#18-Kyle Busch: Chassis No. 333 is a brand new chassis that will make its race debut in Sunday's Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway.

#20-Joey Logano: and the #20 Home Depot team will take chassis #293 to Daytona for the 500. The car has run previous restrictor-plate races in the past. Chassis #325 will serve at the team's backup for Daytona. It's the same car the team used in the Daytona test back in January.

#22-A.J. Allmendinger and his Todd Gordon-led Penske Racing #22 Team will be racing their "PRS-642" Shell-Pennzoil Dodge Charger in this week's action at Daytona. Thursday's qualifying race will mark its first time in racing competition.

#27-Paul Menard will pilot Chassis No. 338 from the RCR stable in the Daytona 500. This Chevy was a new addition to the RCR fleet for the 2011 season and saw superspeedway competition as Menard's #27 in the Daytona 500, at Talladega in April and at Daytona in July. The car was last seen on track at Talladega in October, entered as the #33 Chevy 100 Years Chevrolet where the team started third and went on to claim RCR's 100th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series victory. The #27 PEAK/Menards Chevy will carry a special paint scheme during Speedweeks at Daytona. "PEAK blue" and "Menards yellow" will don the Impala as the Sprint Cup Series kicks off the 2012 season.

#29-Kevin Harvick: will utilize Chassis No. 387 from the Richard Childress Racing stable for this weekend's Daytona 500. This is a brand new race car that saw its first on-track activity at DIS during preseason testing in January.

#31-Jeff Burton will race Chassis No. 296 from the RCR stable in the Daytona 500. This chassis, built in 2010 for RCR's #33 entry, competed in two superspeedway events in 2010 including the Talladega Superspeedway race in April (started-14th, finished-seventh) and the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway in July (started-15th, finished-17th). Ring Power and Louisiana Cat will be featured on the deck lid of the #31 Caterpillar Chevy for all Speedweeks 2012 events at Daytona International Speedway.

#33-Elliott Sadler: will pilot Chassis No. 238 from the RCR stable. This former #31 racer received a new body over the season after competing in the 2010 and 2011 Budweiser Shootouts with driver Jeff Burton, posting 12th and eighth-place finishes, respectively. The #33 will be sponsored by General Mills and Kroger at Daytona.

#36-Dave Blaney and the #36 Ollie's Bargain Outlet team will compete with the No. 331 chassis. The chassis is a brand new chassis made by Richard Childress Racing. TBR tested the chassis at Daytona International Speedway in January.

#39-Ryan Newman Chassis No. 39-701 is a brand new racecar that has only been tested in the wind tunnel. The Gatorade Duel will mark its first race of any kind, and the Daytona 500 will mark its first points-paying race.

#42-Juan Pablo Montoya: crew chief Chris 'Sunshine' Heroy and the #42 Target team will be racing chassis #1117 in the Daytona 500. This is the same chassis that Montoya drove to a 15th place finish during the fall race at Talladega Superspeedway last year.

#43-Aric Almirola:: The #43 Richard Petty Motorsports team has prepared chassis No. 722 for the Daytona 500. This is not the same car the team tested at the speedway in January, but it is the same Smithfield Helping Hungry Homes Ford Fusion that the #43 team ran in every restrictor plate event last season.

#51-Kurt Busch Chassis No. 553, Busch tested this chassis in January at Daytona International Speedway and turned a lap of 206.058 mph. This is the samecar that Brad Keselowski drove to victory in April 2009 at Talladega. It was his first career victory and remains the only Sprint Cup Series win for Phoenix Racing.

#55-Mark Martin: The #55 Aaron's Dream Machine is racing chassis No. 687 this weekend at Daytona, the first race appearance for the car. Chassis No. 710, also a new chassis will serve as the backup.

#99-Carl Edwards the #99 Fastenal team will be unloading chassis RK-712 at Daytona, the same car which finished second in the Daytona 500 last year.

- compiled by Jayski.com

 

Drivers to watch in the Daytona 500:

Kevin Harvick – Harvick has a knack for plate racing and is always a contender. He has three wins on plate tracks and he knows how to draft as good as anyone. In the Shootout Harvick had a strong car but was involved in a wreck in the second segment. In his Duel race he finished 9th. As I said in his 2012 Fantasy Preview if you need a default pick take Harvick.

Carl Edwards – Only Carl Edwards and Juan Pablo Montoya have finished in the top ten in four out of the last five races at Daytona. His only finish outside the top ten in this stretch was last summer’s Coke Zero 400. In the Daytona 500 Edwards will start on the pole with teammate Greg Biffle on his side. Look for these two to team up early and often. When it comes to tandem drafting these two have been partners in the past.

Tony Stewart – Tony Stewart is due for a Daytona 500 win and he has a strong chance this year. In his duel race he emerged the victor and as a result he’ll start right behind Carl Edwards. In the Bud Shootout Stewart finished second to Kyle Busch. In the last six Daytona races he’s averaged the the fourth most points per race (32).

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Daytona and Earnhardt’s go hand in hand. Last year he didn’t have success at Daytona but he has a pattern going on. In even year races at Daytona since 2008 his average finish is 5.75. His odd year average finish since 2007 is 29.5. Take this stat for what it’s worth. You can’t question his prowess in the draft though. In his duel race he finished second behind Tony Stewart

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch is always strong at Daytona whether it’s the Daytona 500 or the July night race. When you extrapolate his loop data out to 2007 his driver rating is by far the best in the series (107.2 compared to second best Kurt Busch’s 99.1). He’s also lead in every race since then and has paced the pack for the most laps led (270). Last Saturday night Kyle Busch won the Bud Shootout.

Check out more of my rankings in these posts

Top Tier Elite, Front Runner, Mid Pack Projection and Drivers who don’t want to pick

How to make an informed fantasy pick for the Daytona 500:

  1. Pick drivers who were strong in the Gatorade Duel races (race #1 results, race #2 results). These are simulation races and are representative of how the Daytona 500 could play out. This is by far the most important step towards making an informed fantasy pick for the Daytona 500.
  2. Avoid drivers who are DNF magnets. If a driver is on their second or third car it’s perhaps best to keep shopping for an alternative. Also if a driver has been vocal about their dislike for this type of racing immediately remove them from your roster.
  3. Pick drivers who have a strong history on plate tracks. Some drivers have a knack for them and some don’t.

Daytona Average Points Per Race (PPR) over the last six races courtesy of FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

  • Kurt Busch 34
  • Matt Kenseth 34
  • Juan Pablo Montoya 32
  • Tony Stewart 32
  • Carl Edwards 32
  • Kevin Harvick 31

Daytona Driver Rating in the last six races courtesy of FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

  • Kurt Busch (103.3)
  • Kyle Busch (99.3)
  • Carl Edwards (90.5)
  • Kevin Harvick (89.7)
  • Tony Stewart (88.6)
  • Denny Hamlin (87.2)
  • Clint Bowyer (87.1)

Final Daytona 500 Driver Ratings Following All Practice Sessions

Micah Roberts Driver Ratings
Daytona 500
Daytona International Speedway
Sunday, February 26, 2012 - 10:16 am (PDT)

Rating Driver    Odds       Qualified  Practice 3   Duels*  Shootout*

1. Tony Stewart 10/1            3rd           12th          1st          2nd
17 Daytona wins over career, but none in the Daytona 500; 2004 runner-up.

2. Jeff Gordon 12/1             16th          25th          8th          15th
Three-time winner, the last coming in 2004. Star performer in pre-season testing.

3. Jamie McMurray 18/1     19th         28th         10th          16th
2010 winner, three of six career wins have come in restrictor-plate races; brand new chassis.

4. Kurt Busch 25/1              28th         DNP         14th         17th
Three-time Daytona 500 runner-up; using winning '09 Talladega chassis driven by Keselowski.

5. Kyle Busch 10/1             14th         30th           7th           1st
Series best average running position of 12.3 over career at Daytona; brand new chassis.

6. Kevin Harvick 12/1        13th           8th            7th         22nd
2007 winner, also 2010 winner of summer race; brand new chassis this week.

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr 12/1     5th         42nd           2nd         20th
2004 winner, hasn't won any points race in his last 129 starts. Streak in jeopardy Sunday.

8. Denny Hamlin 20/1        31st         11th           17th          5th
Not his best track with 22.1 average finish, but pre-season test was encouraging sign.

9. Carl Edwards 12/1          1st           41st            5th           9th
No plate race wins, but getting close; using runner-up chassis from 2011 Daytona 500

10. Elliott Sadler 30/1        10th         13th           4th          DNP
Finished 11th or better from 2004-2009; using chassis ran by Burton in 2010-11.
 
 
 
New to ifantasyrace in 2012, the Total Driver Power Rankings will be a weekly post that is similar to ESPN’s Total QB Rating for the NFL. This isn’t a normal power rankings chart, nor is it a prediction for the upcoming race, but rather a combination of the two. Taken into account to arrive at TDR (Total Driver Rating) are previous history at the upcoming track, recent performance, and expert opinions, among many other variables.
Ranking Driver TDR
1 Edwards, Carl 108.552
2 Stewart, Tony 95.448
3 Harvick, Kevin 92.483
4 Gordon, Jeff 92.241
5 Earnhardt Jr, Dale 85.724
6 Kahne, Kasey 84.621
7 Kenseth, Matt 84.224
8 Biffle, Greg 83.879
9 Hamlin, Denny 82.552
10 Busch, Kurt 81.707
11 Montoya, Juan 79.483
12 Busch, Kyle 79.034
13 Menard, Paul 75.966
14 Bowyer, Clint 73.621
15 McMurray, Jamie 71.741
 
 

 

I underlined & put in bold the notes i find important for all races...



[edited by: Griff at 9:56 AM (GMT -8) on Sun, Feb 26 2012]

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

No Limit
Joined: 10/19/2009
Posts: 50431
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John c reilly should have won an oscar for best supporting actor in this flick and im 100% serious, he made this movie a riot to watch, lol.

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Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 23203
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Daytona International Speedway

Daytona

Similar Tracks: Talladega

Drivers Who You Should Always Keep An Eye On: Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, and Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Some Sleepers To Keep An Eye On: David Ragan, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kasey Kahne, and  AJ Allmendinger,

These Sites Are Great To Do Study Work On For This Track

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

Driveraverages.com

Yahoo.com COT Race Charts (winner set as default in charts)

2011 Race 2 (finishing order), Top Five – 1)Ragan 2)Kenseth 3)Logano 4)Kahne 5)Kyle Busch

2011 Race 1 (finishing order), Top Five – 1)Bayne 2)Edwards 3)Gilliland 4)Labonte 5)Kurt Busch

2010 Race 2 (finishing order), Top Five – 1)Harvick 2)Kahne 3)Gordon 4)Earnhardt Jr. 5)Burton

2010 Race 1 (finishing order), Top Five – 1)McMurray 2)Earnhardt Jr. 3)Biffle 4)Bowyer 5)Reutimann

2009 Race 2 (finishing order), Top Five – 1)Stewart 2)Johnson 3)Hamlin 4)Edwards 5)Kurt Busch

2009 Race 1 (finishing order), Top Five – 1)Kenseth 2)Harvick 4)Allmendinger 4)Bowyer 5)Sadler

2008 Race 2 (finishing order), Top Five – 1)Kyle Busch 2)Edwards 3)Kenseth 4)Kurt Busch 5)Ragan

2008 Race 1 (finishing order), Top Five – 1)Newman 2)Kurt Busch 3)Stewart 4)Kyle Busch 5)Reed Sorenson

__________________________

Daytona Track Dimensions

Size: 2.5 Miles

Length of frontstretch: 1,900 Feet

Length of backstretch: 3,400 Feet

Degree of banking: 31 degrees

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 23203
All Pro
Top 10 Contributor

Thanks NL

Have not seen the odds im getting yet for today, but wanted to say that i always wait 3 to 5 races in before i start wagering serously or larger bets and start betting matchups....Daytona 500 is always a crap shoot.....As always im willing to answer anyquestions or give suggestions on Matchups your book may be dealing, so feel free to ask....Im not so concerned with practice times today, as we will should see a lot of drafting today & that shit is just damn unpredicatable....The sites i use for info are changing a little and i have not completly dove head in yet on NASCAR, but will as always do my weekly thing to bring yall winning information all in one place for yall to use as well as my self...



[edited by: Griff at 10:16 AM (GMT -8) on Sat, Feb 25 2012]

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

deliveryman3
Joined: 02/26/2007
Posts: 21949
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GL Griff....that was wicked hit Danica took the other day!

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB6355253.39229.00
MLB129164144.03-741.00
NBA9781254.49769.00
NFL3933354.17113.00
Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 23203
All Pro
Top 10 Contributor

Thanks DJ & D-Man, best yall's way!

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 23203
All Pro
Top 10 Contributor

70% CHANCE OF RAIN MAKES THE BIGGER ODDS RACERS MORE APPEALING!!!!be back with picks in a couple hours

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 23203
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Top 10 Contributor

I cant speak for any of y'all new posters, but Sig, D-Man, and my self are all proven NASCAR winners at PG, you're in good hands following any of them....Would love to see more NASCAR post, so y'all get out there and do work!



[edited by: Griff at 6:11 AM (GMT -8) on Sun, Feb 26 2012]

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

Celticbhoy
Joined: 09/24/2010
Posts: 3195
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thanks for all the info griff i know nothing about nascar but i will place a wager in your honour

Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 23203
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Thanks Celtic & BOL!.........WANTED TO SAY; just because I might have certain drivers rated higher than others, does not always mean I will pick them b/c their odds might not be worth the bet. The thing about NASCAR is their are 42 drivers out there & they all have a shot at winnig, so betting a bunch of heavy favorites is not profitable over a entire season IMO b/c it does not pay back enough over time b/c nobody will pick a race winner  every week & are doing damn good to string together a few weeks of 1st place race winners...The real bread N butter is in the matchups which I will start playing in a couple of weeks when I have a better feel for a lot he Drivers this season......more thoughts to come...

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

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